So what should you do?
1. Start learning first and complete your knowledge. Learn everything that you should know about the trends, patterns, support, resistance, candle sticks, reversal and continuation signals and … . There are a lot of websites that have these information for free. You have to spend at least three months to learn all these things.
2. Decide that if you want to be a swing trader or an intraday trader. As a beginner you should choose one of them because you have to be focused on one thing first.
3. Choose a system (strategy). Your system should be as simple as possible. Complicated systems are not applicable. You can only lose with them. A System should be as easy as 1, 2, 3. Also choose a system that works according to technique and knowledge not according to superstitions. In an e-book I read about a strategy that says you should buy when you see the price has gone up for 80 pips before noon!!!
4. Start trading with the demo account using the system you have chosen. If you see that you don’t like your system or it is not good, change it. Find a better and simpler system. Get stuck to it and test it over and over and over. Spend several months to one year with the demo account. Do not be fooled by some of the forums members who say “I have started working on forex two months ago and now I make 100 pips everyday”. This is not true.
5. Forget that the account you are working with it is a demo account. Consider it as a real account. When you see you are losing, think that it is your REAL money that is burning. And when you see that you are making profit think that it is going to your real bank account. Keep in your mind that if you rush and trade emotionally you lose your money. This will help you to experience your fear and greed before trading with the real account. If you experience them, you will learn to control them. Don’t let them show themselves right when you start trading with your real money.
6. Then start working with a real account BUT trade with a very very small amount of money. I don’t care if you have a $500k account or a $100 account. Start trading with the minimum amount that you can place an order. Keep on working with this amount of money for a few weeks. If you saw that you are trading exactly like when you have been trading with the demo account, increase the amount of the money gradually. Do not play with a huge amount of money after a few successful trades.
7. Don’t give up! Don’t get disappointed when you lose. Everybody loses at the beginning. Even the best traders lose in some of their trades. Learn from your mistakes. Keep in your mind that losing is part of the game. We do not practice to learn not to lose. We practice to learn how to lose small amounts and win big amounts. Your stop loss will be triggered in some cases. This is natural. It should not prevent you from entering to another trade.
If you work in the way I explained above, you will become a professional trader in about one year without losing your money and without having to reload your account.
Happy trading
Vahid
Monday, April 20, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
From Market oracle.. please read !!!
Currency swaps are of reciprocal currency agreements (swap facilities) between central banks. The officially purpose of such agreements are explicitly of short term and are intended to finance short-term capital flows believed to be seasonal or temporary in nature. Swap agreements are also misused to facilitate large interventions in foreign exchange markets, which is what is occurring with the dollar today.
How currency swaps work
The easiest way to understand currency swaps is to think of them as two separate zero-interest loans. For example, let’s say the fed and the ECB arrange a 80 billion euros ($107 billion) swap. The ECB then lends the 80 billion euros to the US, and the US loans $107 billion dollars to the ECB. Later, at an agreed date, the currency swap is reversed: the ECB returns the $107 billion dollars to the fed, and the fed pays back 80 billion euros.
How central banks use currency swaps
Central banks use the foreign currency from swap agreements to prop up their domestic currency by:
A) Providing the foreign currency to domestic financial institutions. (If those institutions were forced to go to the exchange markets for funding, it would drive down the value of the domestic currency.)
B) Using the foreign currency to directly intervene in exchange markets.
Why currency swaps are so popular
Currency swaps allow central banks to borrow foreign currencies without revealing that their country's banking system or currency is in trouble. In other words, since both central banks involved in a currency swap borrow foreign currencies at the same time, it is difficult to tell which central bank needed them the most. It is this lack of transparency which makes currency swaps so attractive to central banks.
The dangers of currency swap agreements
Currency swaps are temporary measures that need to be unwound. If the central banks involved in currency swaps were responsible in their use of the foreign credit (ie: financing seasonal short-term capital flows), then unwinding the swap agreement is a simple matter. However, if a central bank uses a currency swap to recklessly intervene in exchange markets (ie: desperately prop up a failing currency), then unwinding swap agreement becomes problematic.
Remember that currency swap agreements are essentially two loans. When a central bank misuses a currency swap to prop up its failing currency, it will not have the foreign currency on hand when it comes time to repay the swap drawings. As a result, that central bank will then be forced to issue bonds in foreign currencies to secure the funds to unwind its half of the swap agreement.
The true danger of currency swap agreements is that they allow irresponsible central banks to temporarily prop up their currencies by racking up large amounts of foreign debt. When the swap agreements are later unwound, not only does the domestic currency’s value fall, but the nation is left with large amounts of foreign denominated debt.
The US has a history of misusing currency swap agreements
Through the treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, the United States has twice used swap agreements in failed attempts to prop up the dollar. On both those occasions, the treasury was subsequently forced to issue foreign currency-denominated debt (Roosa bonds and Carter bonds) to repay swap drawings. Evidence of this repeated misuse of currency swaps can be seen on
How currency swaps work
The easiest way to understand currency swaps is to think of them as two separate zero-interest loans. For example, let’s say the fed and the ECB arrange a 80 billion euros ($107 billion) swap. The ECB then lends the 80 billion euros to the US, and the US loans $107 billion dollars to the ECB. Later, at an agreed date, the currency swap is reversed: the ECB returns the $107 billion dollars to the fed, and the fed pays back 80 billion euros.
How central banks use currency swaps
Central banks use the foreign currency from swap agreements to prop up their domestic currency by:
A) Providing the foreign currency to domestic financial institutions. (If those institutions were forced to go to the exchange markets for funding, it would drive down the value of the domestic currency.)
B) Using the foreign currency to directly intervene in exchange markets.
Why currency swaps are so popular
Currency swaps allow central banks to borrow foreign currencies without revealing that their country's banking system or currency is in trouble. In other words, since both central banks involved in a currency swap borrow foreign currencies at the same time, it is difficult to tell which central bank needed them the most. It is this lack of transparency which makes currency swaps so attractive to central banks.
The dangers of currency swap agreements
Currency swaps are temporary measures that need to be unwound. If the central banks involved in currency swaps were responsible in their use of the foreign credit (ie: financing seasonal short-term capital flows), then unwinding the swap agreement is a simple matter. However, if a central bank uses a currency swap to recklessly intervene in exchange markets (ie: desperately prop up a failing currency), then unwinding swap agreement becomes problematic.
Remember that currency swap agreements are essentially two loans. When a central bank misuses a currency swap to prop up its failing currency, it will not have the foreign currency on hand when it comes time to repay the swap drawings. As a result, that central bank will then be forced to issue bonds in foreign currencies to secure the funds to unwind its half of the swap agreement.
The true danger of currency swap agreements is that they allow irresponsible central banks to temporarily prop up their currencies by racking up large amounts of foreign debt. When the swap agreements are later unwound, not only does the domestic currency’s value fall, but the nation is left with large amounts of foreign denominated debt.
The US has a history of misusing currency swap agreements
Through the treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, the United States has twice used swap agreements in failed attempts to prop up the dollar. On both those occasions, the treasury was subsequently forced to issue foreign currency-denominated debt (Roosa bonds and Carter bonds) to repay swap drawings. Evidence of this repeated misuse of currency swaps can be seen on
Friday, April 17, 2009
GBP/USD @ 11.15 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4923 (My Target : 1.4800 Next : 1.4715 Next : 1.4592)
BUY Area - 1.4963 (My Target : 1.5012 Next : 1.5152)
Trading Range is between 1.4800 - 1.5100.
Salam and Hi......
As aspected yesterday buy and sell area met. Buy area fail to met my target at 1.5082 and stop at 1.5066. Then CS drop and met my sell area and met my target at 1.4866 and stop at 1.4838. Congratulations who got it.
At this moment (11.15 am) just read H4 chart. Already performed Bearish Continuation Candle and RSI is going down. Candle open below MA Red colour. Just drag the Fibonaci and use BB you will know where is the price may drop. Then use stochastic ossilator and you may see where CS is going to. Please reffer all Bullish signal that I've teached you before and please use all the relevan analysis given to you before for your refference. Until then good luck and be happy always.
Allah Hu.
GBP/USD
Speculation in the futures market that the pound will fall against the dollar increased in the last two weeks, with so- called net short positions rising to 34,462 on April 7 from 30,746 March 24, according to data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The pound will fall to $1.45 and to 91 pence versus the euro by the end of the second quarter, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys of at least 35 analysts.
Betting on pound gains is “definitely not a crowded trade,” said David Woo, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Barclays Plc, who predicts the currency will strengthen to 80 pence per euro this year. “If you look at the data from the CFTC, the market still doesn’t have the position on sterling.”
Technical analysts, who use historic trading patters to predict future prices, suggest the pound will continue to advance. The currency has been trading above its 100-day moving average against the euro since April 7, the first time it broke through that level since Nov. 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Breaking Levels
“Euro-sterling has rammed through all of the technical levels,” said David Powell, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. “Support was created by the 100-day moving average, but we’ve just gone right through there.”
Fibonacci charts show the pound may struggle to hold its gains unless it surpasses $1.5074. It almost reached that level three times since falling to a low of $1.3503 on Jan. 23.
Britain’s economy will shrink less than the U.S. and Europe this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 31. The U.K. will contract 3.7 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in the 16-nation euro-region and 4 percent in America, the Paris-based OECD said.
Brown’s government plans to sell at least 147.9 billion pounds ($195 billion) of debt in the fiscal year ending March 2010 to revive the economy, Europe’s second-largest. It sold an unprecedented 146.4 billion pounds of securities last year. The sales are helping finance a 25.6 billion-pound program of tax cuts and spending increases over the next two years. Brown has pledged 40 billion pounds to recapitalize banks and hundreds of billions of pounds in loan guarantees.
‘The Right Measures’
“On the financial sector, he’s put in place the right measures before any other country,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “Where he doesn’t rate highly is fiscal policy. The U.K. was in a very bad state when it entered the recession with a large deficit.”
Britain will have a deficit of 9.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the most in the Group of Seven, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Washington- based lender forecast shortfalls of 7.7 percent in the U.S., 8.1 percent in Japan and 4 percent in Germany, according to estimates last month.
“History will reveal 2009/2010 as the time to buy cheap,” Neil Jones, the head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London said in a note yesterday. “We will look back on this era and say, ‘I should have loaded up on property, companies and stocks.’”
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at
The pound will fall to $1.45 and to 91 pence versus the euro by the end of the second quarter, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys of at least 35 analysts.
Betting on pound gains is “definitely not a crowded trade,” said David Woo, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Barclays Plc, who predicts the currency will strengthen to 80 pence per euro this year. “If you look at the data from the CFTC, the market still doesn’t have the position on sterling.”
Technical analysts, who use historic trading patters to predict future prices, suggest the pound will continue to advance. The currency has been trading above its 100-day moving average against the euro since April 7, the first time it broke through that level since Nov. 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Breaking Levels
“Euro-sterling has rammed through all of the technical levels,” said David Powell, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. “Support was created by the 100-day moving average, but we’ve just gone right through there.”
Fibonacci charts show the pound may struggle to hold its gains unless it surpasses $1.5074. It almost reached that level three times since falling to a low of $1.3503 on Jan. 23.
Britain’s economy will shrink less than the U.S. and Europe this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 31. The U.K. will contract 3.7 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in the 16-nation euro-region and 4 percent in America, the Paris-based OECD said.
Brown’s government plans to sell at least 147.9 billion pounds ($195 billion) of debt in the fiscal year ending March 2010 to revive the economy, Europe’s second-largest. It sold an unprecedented 146.4 billion pounds of securities last year. The sales are helping finance a 25.6 billion-pound program of tax cuts and spending increases over the next two years. Brown has pledged 40 billion pounds to recapitalize banks and hundreds of billions of pounds in loan guarantees.
‘The Right Measures’
“On the financial sector, he’s put in place the right measures before any other country,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “Where he doesn’t rate highly is fiscal policy. The U.K. was in a very bad state when it entered the recession with a large deficit.”
Britain will have a deficit of 9.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the most in the Group of Seven, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Washington- based lender forecast shortfalls of 7.7 percent in the U.S., 8.1 percent in Japan and 4 percent in Germany, according to estimates last month.
“History will reveal 2009/2010 as the time to buy cheap,” Neil Jones, the head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London said in a note yesterday. “We will look back on this era and say, ‘I should have loaded up on property, companies and stocks.’”
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at
Thursday, April 16, 2009
GBP/USD @ 10.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4971 (First Target : 1.5082 Next : 1.5167)
SELL Area - 1.4931 (First Target : 1.4866)
Salam and Hi........
Today Trading range is between 1.4800 to 1.5300 area.
As aspected yesterday candle broke my second target at 1.5050. Congratulations who took this opportunity and I've heard one of you got more $4000.
Today please see the Daily and weekly chart. Looks like the candle may move further up. Please be alert on all Bullish signal like small and big flag, continuations bullish candle, inverted hammer. So do the Bearish signal like ,abandoned baby, dark cloud, pennant and etc.
Until then let learn something new today and be more discipline and the most important is set your target.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4931 (First Target : 1.4866)
Salam and Hi........
Today Trading range is between 1.4800 to 1.5300 area.
As aspected yesterday candle broke my second target at 1.5050. Congratulations who took this opportunity and I've heard one of you got more $4000.
Today please see the Daily and weekly chart. Looks like the candle may move further up. Please be alert on all Bullish signal like small and big flag, continuations bullish candle, inverted hammer. So do the Bearish signal like ,abandoned baby, dark cloud, pennant and etc.
Until then let learn something new today and be more discipline and the most important is set your target.
Allah Hu.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
GBP/USD @ 09.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4911 (My target is 1.4957. Next 1.5050)
SELL Area - 1.4871 (My target is 1.4800. Next 1.4778)
Salam and hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.5000.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4871 (My target is 1.4800. Next 1.4778)
Salam and hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.5000.
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
GBP/USD @ 08.05 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area : 1.4775 (First target : 1.4870 Next : 1.4952)
SELL Area : 1.4755 (First target : 1.4650)
Salam and Hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.4945.
If break Resistance at 1.4957, candle may test 1.5100 area. If fail candle may drop back to 1.4775 area. Let see this happen.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area : 1.4755 (First target : 1.4650)
Salam and Hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.4945.
If break Resistance at 1.4957, candle may test 1.5100 area. If fail candle may drop back to 1.4775 area. Let see this happen.
Allah Hu.
Monday, April 13, 2009
GBP/USD @ 10.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4667 (My target: 1.4700 Next : 1.4778)
SELL Area - 1.4625 (My target : 1.4584 Next : 1.4500)
Salam and Hi...
Trading range is between 1.4584 to 1.4778.
At this moment the market is still on consolidations mood from 1.4957 drop. Initial resistance is at 1.4778 and as long as this price holds candle may drop deeper at 1.4400 area. The market is still slow because of the Bank Holiday.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4625 (My target : 1.4584 Next : 1.4500)
Salam and Hi...
Trading range is between 1.4584 to 1.4778.
At this moment the market is still on consolidations mood from 1.4957 drop. Initial resistance is at 1.4778 and as long as this price holds candle may drop deeper at 1.4400 area. The market is still slow because of the Bank Holiday.
Allah Hu.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
From Bloomberg
Dollar Gains Most in 2 Months on Optimism Worst of Crisis Over
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By Ron Harui and Lukanyo Mnyanda
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted the biggest weekly gain versus the euro in more than two months on optimism the worst of the financial crisis in the U.S. is over.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six of its biggest trading partners, completed the largest weekly advance since November after Wells Fargo & Co.’s profit beat estimates, triggering the steepest one-day gain on record in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Banks Index. The euro dropped the most against the yen since January on concern the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to below 1 percent to spur growth.
“Wells Fargo’s results augur well for U.S. banks’ earnings and point to an easing in the financial crisis,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker. “The dollar is likely to be bought.”
The dollar climbed 2.3 percent this week to $1.3143 per euro on April 10, the biggest gain since the five days through Jan. 23. It touched $1.3090 yesterday, the strongest level since March 18. The greenback strengthened 1.1 percent to $1.4672 per pound and advanced 0.6 percent to 1,333 South Korean won.
The yen appreciated 2.3 percent to 132.18 per euro, the biggest gain since the week to Jan. 23. It was little changed against the dollar at 100.24 yen from 100.31 on April 3.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, gained 1.9 percent this week to 85.786, the most since the five days through Nov. 21. The ICE was closed yesterday for Easter.
The U.S. currency advanced after Wells Fargo, the second- largest U.S. home lender, said on April 9 that first-quarter net income surged 50 percent because of “strong” revenue from Wachovia Corp., which it acquired last year.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will release its first-quarter results on April 14. The New York-based company is considering a multibillion dollar share sale to help repay a $10 billion government loan, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter.
U.S. Treasury yields this week climbed to near the highest since the Federal Reserve started buying debt as the economy showed signs of improving and the U.S. sold $59 billion in debt. The 10-year yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.93 percent, according to Bloomberg data.
Rate Cut
The euro touched a three-week low against the dollar yesterday on concern the ECB will lower its benchmark rate for a fourth time this year at its meeting next month.
ECB council member Nout Wellink said the central bank can make additional cuts to its 1.25 percent rate and is considering other measures to spur lending and boost the economy.
“There is some room for lowering the interest rate,” Wellink, who also heads the Dutch central bank, said April 9 in an interview in Leiden, the Netherlands. “There is also room for other measures, on which we will decide soon,” he said, declining to specify what action the bank might take.
Fellow member Ewald Nowotny said cutting the rate below 1 percent was still open for debate and it would be “sensible” for the bank to buy corporate debt as it fights for an economic recovery.
“There seems to be a growing consensus for more rate reductions” from the ECB, said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth-largest bank. “The euro will probably weaken.”
Room to Lower
Investors raised bets the ECB will lower borrowing costs at its May 7 meeting. The yield on the three-month Euribor interest-rate futures contract for May delivery fell to 1.31 percent on April 9 from 1.39 percent at the end of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The euro may extend its decline to $1.25 after dropping below a March 30 low of $1.3114, Sumitomo Trust’s Uchida said.
The $1.3114 level represents so-called support on a horizontal trend line of a descending triangle, he said. The trend line connects the March 30 low and the April 9 low, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A descending triangle consists of horizontal and descending trend lines.
‘Buying Opportunity’
Investors should use a decline in the euro as an opportunity to buy the common European currency, according to BNP Paribas SA. The euro may fall to $1.30 over the next week, analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note yesterday.
“Any such pullback would be viewed a medium-term buying opportunity,” they said.
The yen rose for a fourth day versus the euro yesterday as Asian stocks pared an earlier advance, prompting some investors to reduce their holdings of higher-yielding assets.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average trimmed its gains to 0.5 percent after earlier rising as much as 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares gained 0.6 percent following an earlier 1 percent increase.
“The Japanese stock market isn’t reacting as positively as the U.S.’s,” said Ryohei Muramatsu, Tokyo-based manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest lender. “The pullback in equities here is leading to some buying of the yen.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 11, 2009 01:54 EDT
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Ron Harui and Lukanyo Mnyanda
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted the biggest weekly gain versus the euro in more than two months on optimism the worst of the financial crisis in the U.S. is over.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six of its biggest trading partners, completed the largest weekly advance since November after Wells Fargo & Co.’s profit beat estimates, triggering the steepest one-day gain on record in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Banks Index. The euro dropped the most against the yen since January on concern the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to below 1 percent to spur growth.
“Wells Fargo’s results augur well for U.S. banks’ earnings and point to an easing in the financial crisis,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker. “The dollar is likely to be bought.”
The dollar climbed 2.3 percent this week to $1.3143 per euro on April 10, the biggest gain since the five days through Jan. 23. It touched $1.3090 yesterday, the strongest level since March 18. The greenback strengthened 1.1 percent to $1.4672 per pound and advanced 0.6 percent to 1,333 South Korean won.
The yen appreciated 2.3 percent to 132.18 per euro, the biggest gain since the week to Jan. 23. It was little changed against the dollar at 100.24 yen from 100.31 on April 3.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, gained 1.9 percent this week to 85.786, the most since the five days through Nov. 21. The ICE was closed yesterday for Easter.
The U.S. currency advanced after Wells Fargo, the second- largest U.S. home lender, said on April 9 that first-quarter net income surged 50 percent because of “strong” revenue from Wachovia Corp., which it acquired last year.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will release its first-quarter results on April 14. The New York-based company is considering a multibillion dollar share sale to help repay a $10 billion government loan, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter.
U.S. Treasury yields this week climbed to near the highest since the Federal Reserve started buying debt as the economy showed signs of improving and the U.S. sold $59 billion in debt. The 10-year yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.93 percent, according to Bloomberg data.
Rate Cut
The euro touched a three-week low against the dollar yesterday on concern the ECB will lower its benchmark rate for a fourth time this year at its meeting next month.
ECB council member Nout Wellink said the central bank can make additional cuts to its 1.25 percent rate and is considering other measures to spur lending and boost the economy.
“There is some room for lowering the interest rate,” Wellink, who also heads the Dutch central bank, said April 9 in an interview in Leiden, the Netherlands. “There is also room for other measures, on which we will decide soon,” he said, declining to specify what action the bank might take.
Fellow member Ewald Nowotny said cutting the rate below 1 percent was still open for debate and it would be “sensible” for the bank to buy corporate debt as it fights for an economic recovery.
“There seems to be a growing consensus for more rate reductions” from the ECB, said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth-largest bank. “The euro will probably weaken.”
Room to Lower
Investors raised bets the ECB will lower borrowing costs at its May 7 meeting. The yield on the three-month Euribor interest-rate futures contract for May delivery fell to 1.31 percent on April 9 from 1.39 percent at the end of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The euro may extend its decline to $1.25 after dropping below a March 30 low of $1.3114, Sumitomo Trust’s Uchida said.
The $1.3114 level represents so-called support on a horizontal trend line of a descending triangle, he said. The trend line connects the March 30 low and the April 9 low, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A descending triangle consists of horizontal and descending trend lines.
‘Buying Opportunity’
Investors should use a decline in the euro as an opportunity to buy the common European currency, according to BNP Paribas SA. The euro may fall to $1.30 over the next week, analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note yesterday.
“Any such pullback would be viewed a medium-term buying opportunity,” they said.
The yen rose for a fourth day versus the euro yesterday as Asian stocks pared an earlier advance, prompting some investors to reduce their holdings of higher-yielding assets.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average trimmed its gains to 0.5 percent after earlier rising as much as 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares gained 0.6 percent following an earlier 1 percent increase.
“The Japanese stock market isn’t reacting as positively as the U.S.’s,” said Ryohei Muramatsu, Tokyo-based manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest lender. “The pullback in equities here is leading to some buying of the yen.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 11, 2009 01:54 EDT
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Statement From fx360 For GBP/USD
BOE MEETING MAY BECOME A NON-EVENT FOR FOREX MARKETS
The pound is well contained in today’s trading showing only a slight move to the upside. It does not appear to just be the holiday weekend that is keeping GBP/USD motionless, as weekly price action has been hesitant to show any clear direction. As a better indication of pound sentiment, a look at EUR/GBP shows that the pair has staged a steady downward drift for most of this week. This situation is a rare find in a week with a BoE decision, among other central bank decisions. It is apparent that yesterday’s meeting presented nothing new for the markets to move on. The BoE only reaffirmed their backing of the quantitative easing program that they initiated last month. It is a real possibility that, judging by this week’s decision, the BoE meeting will become a non-event like the BoJ and even the Fed. It seems that at this point, all has been dispensed in their efforts. For future meetings, any surprise will come from either change in the asset purchases or in the event that the policy shows some signs of success. UK data will be sparse next week, emphasizing the housing market with DCLG House Prices and RICS House Price Balance.
The pound is well contained in today’s trading showing only a slight move to the upside. It does not appear to just be the holiday weekend that is keeping GBP/USD motionless, as weekly price action has been hesitant to show any clear direction. As a better indication of pound sentiment, a look at EUR/GBP shows that the pair has staged a steady downward drift for most of this week. This situation is a rare find in a week with a BoE decision, among other central bank decisions. It is apparent that yesterday’s meeting presented nothing new for the markets to move on. The BoE only reaffirmed their backing of the quantitative easing program that they initiated last month. It is a real possibility that, judging by this week’s decision, the BoE meeting will become a non-event like the BoJ and even the Fed. It seems that at this point, all has been dispensed in their efforts. For future meetings, any surprise will come from either change in the asset purchases or in the event that the policy shows some signs of success. UK data will be sparse next week, emphasizing the housing market with DCLG House Prices and RICS House Price Balance.
Friday, April 10, 2009
GBP/USD @ 09.45 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4643 ( My Target : 1.4584 Next : 1.4550)
BUY Area - 1.4685 ( My Target : 1.4705 Next : 1.4744 Next : 1.4778)
Salam and Hi....
Today is a Bank Holiday in most country in Europe. That mean no so much trading activity today. So better sit down and study back what you have learn from me before. Anyway trading range today is between 1.4580 to 1.4957 and maybe monday morning more activity will happen. If the initial resistance hold at 1.4778 candle possibility may drop to 1.4290 area Next Week. Until then Good Luck.
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4685 ( My Target : 1.4705 Next : 1.4744 Next : 1.4778)
Salam and Hi....
Today is a Bank Holiday in most country in Europe. That mean no so much trading activity today. So better sit down and study back what you have learn from me before. Anyway trading range today is between 1.4580 to 1.4957 and maybe monday morning more activity will happen. If the initial resistance hold at 1.4778 candle possibility may drop to 1.4290 area Next Week. Until then Good Luck.
Allah Hu.
From Market oracle.. please read !!!
The USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows.
GBP low prints at 1.4580 was not challenged in New York today and the rate lifted to a two-pip high at 1.4780 before settling back to the 1.4720 area; traders note stops in-range above the 1.4720 area seen as daily resistance and with the rate holding gains from the start of New York traders are expecting further gains overnight despite weakness in equities seen to start the week.
Across the board the USD rally today has failed to extend gains suggesting that despite risk-aversion trade today this firmness is likely a corrective rally rather than the start of a move higher. Although many traders remain bullish USD for the near-term the rallies seem to lack conviction; further strength is likely to be offered and aggressive traders need to see this rally as a selling opportunity. Look for the USD to remain two-way overnight with any strength to be on light volume and holding under resistance. With a light economic calendar ahead the action should be technical for the most part.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5040/50, Resistance 2: 1.5000, Resistance 1: 1.4950
Latest New York: 1.4736, Support 1: 1.4650, Support 2: 1.4580, Support 3: 1.4550
Comments
Rate falls through stops layered under the 1.4650 area for lows on support at 1.4580; pullback being bought by large names traders say. Aggressive traders can look to re-set longs on the dip; stops above the market from late shorts around 1.4720 area cleared today. Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000. Overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to trade but expect pressure. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure. The shorts may have lost control of the market above the 1.4440 area now and if that is the case a test of the 1.5000 area is almost a done-deal. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
GBP low prints at 1.4580 was not challenged in New York today and the rate lifted to a two-pip high at 1.4780 before settling back to the 1.4720 area; traders note stops in-range above the 1.4720 area seen as daily resistance and with the rate holding gains from the start of New York traders are expecting further gains overnight despite weakness in equities seen to start the week.
Across the board the USD rally today has failed to extend gains suggesting that despite risk-aversion trade today this firmness is likely a corrective rally rather than the start of a move higher. Although many traders remain bullish USD for the near-term the rallies seem to lack conviction; further strength is likely to be offered and aggressive traders need to see this rally as a selling opportunity. Look for the USD to remain two-way overnight with any strength to be on light volume and holding under resistance. With a light economic calendar ahead the action should be technical for the most part.
GBP/USD Daily
Resistance 3: 1.5040/50, Resistance 2: 1.5000, Resistance 1: 1.4950
Latest New York: 1.4736, Support 1: 1.4650, Support 2: 1.4580, Support 3: 1.4550
Comments
Rate falls through stops layered under the 1.4650 area for lows on support at 1.4580; pullback being bought by large names traders say. Aggressive traders can look to re-set longs on the dip; stops above the market from late shorts around 1.4720 area cleared today. Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000. Overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to trade but expect pressure. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure. The shorts may have lost control of the market above the 1.4440 area now and if that is the case a test of the 1.5000 area is almost a done-deal. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
Thursday, April 9, 2009
GBP/USD @ 11.50 am (Malaysia)
Salam and Hi........
Trading Range is between 1.4580 to 1.1.4957.
BUY Area - 1.4705 (My Target : 1.4771 Next : 1.4850)
SELL Area - 1.4665 (My Target : 1.4622 Next : 1.4580 - possibility to break 1.4515)
Allah Hu.
Trading Range is between 1.4580 to 1.1.4957.
BUY Area - 1.4705 (My Target : 1.4771 Next : 1.4850)
SELL Area - 1.4665 (My Target : 1.4622 Next : 1.4580 - possibility to break 1.4515)
Allah Hu.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Ambilah Batang I Kita Ambil Bukit Aje !!!
Listen, can you hear it?
Yes, it is the sound of printing presses going 24/7 around the world.
Can there be any doubt where we are heading with all of these ‘dollars' being printed?
Inflation or hyperinflation is within sight but it will probably take a few more years to get there.
And then what? You better ‘hope' you are correctly positioned to benefit from this investment scenario. There are several ways this may play out, but we believe it will ultimately be a game with the global currencies in a race for the bottom.
Two currencies which are surely destined to rise in value in the coming years in this environment (at least relative to other currencies) are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar, both currencies of countries with substantial natural resources.
Seems like only yesterday when the Canadian dollar was below 65 then went parabolic to 110 in May 2008 and now looks to have found a bottom in the 77 – 78 range and is current around 80. A quick look at the performance of the Australian dollar shows a high in July 2008, hitting a low of around 60 and currently looking short term overbought at the 72 level.
In the case of Canadian junior mining shares owned by U.S. investors this means that due to currency pricing alone you have lost about 30% in the value of your investments from the currency peak in May 2008. And you thought you were not playing the currency markets? Guess again.
There is a positive spin to this story because we believe both the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar will be big performers in the coming months and years due to the strong resource base of each of these countries.
Not only with investors recoup the loss in current draw downs in their investment portfolios but they will recoup their investments faster as the natural resource sector/commodity sector catches fire again and the Canadian and Australian dollars rise strongly.
Particularly for U.S. investors, we suggest a substantial position in gold/silver bullion, selected junior mining shares and perhaps, long-term warrants on some of your favorite mining companies to weather this financial storm and benefit there from.
For those readers interested in learning more about warrants we encourage you to visit our website .
Dudley Pierce Baker
Guadalajara/Ajijic, México
Email: info@preciousmetalswarrants.com
Website: PreciousMetalsWarrants
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.30 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4675 ( Target 1 : 1.4580 Traget 2 : 1.4501)
BUY Area - 1.4717 ( Target 1 : 1.4812 Target 2 : 1.4891)
Salam and Hi.....Trading range is between 1.4100 to 1.4957.
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4717 ( Target 1 : 1.4812 Target 2 : 1.4891)
Salam and Hi.....Trading range is between 1.4100 to 1.4957.
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 7.30 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4771 (First Target : 1.4622 Next : 1.4550)
BUY Area - 1.4799 (First Target : 1.4912)
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4799 (First Target : 1.4912)
Allah Hu.
Monday, April 6, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 9.30 am (Malaysia)
Salam and Hi Malaysia..
Please open your weekly chart and please read my predictions on Friday 3rd April, 2009. You may use that predictions and at this moment candle is trying to reached the upper band of BB. That mean at this moment just open M5 chart and use RSI to enter the market. Low To Buy and it all on Fundamental now, people are selling dollar and buying GBP. Let see wether candle may reach upper band of the BB or not.
The target is 1.4985 and next is 1.5000 area and hopping to break resistance at 1.5372 area (8th. January, 2009) in few days. Until then let see this happen and I'm still on buy positions from Friday and put my TP at 1.4985.
Good Luck Everybody.
Allah Hu.
Please open your weekly chart and please read my predictions on Friday 3rd April, 2009. You may use that predictions and at this moment candle is trying to reached the upper band of BB. That mean at this moment just open M5 chart and use RSI to enter the market. Low To Buy and it all on Fundamental now, people are selling dollar and buying GBP. Let see wether candle may reach upper band of the BB or not.
The target is 1.4985 and next is 1.5000 area and hopping to break resistance at 1.5372 area (8th. January, 2009) in few days. Until then let see this happen and I'm still on buy positions from Friday and put my TP at 1.4985.
Good Luck Everybody.
Allah Hu.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
GOLD !!! GOLD !!! GOLD ????
Bob Prechter on Silver & Gold
In case you hadn’t noticed: Over the past year of financial turmoil, the “safe haven” premium of precious metals has offered about as much support as a rubber ducky in a tsunami. Despite a string of powerful rallies, silver and gold remain well below their March 2008 peaks.
It goes without saying that the greatest opportunities in precious metals were not had by those who played the “disaster hedge” card; but rather by those who timed the trends as they developed, regardless of the fundamental backdrop.
Bob Prechter is in the latter group. Amidst the buzz and whirl of the most bullish backdrop in precious metals’ recent history, gold and silver prices soared to new, all-time highs and calls for a “New Gold Rush” and “$30 Silver” flooded the mainstream airwaves. Yet Bob alerted subscribers to an approaching top in the March 14, 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist.
“The wave count [in silver] is nearly satisfied, though ideally it should end after one more new high. If this analysis is accurate, and silver does peak and begin a bear market, gold is likely to go down with it.”
In the days that followed, prices in both metals fell off a cliff. In turn, Bob was asked to address his exceptional call for a turn down in a March 19, 2008 Bloomberg interview. Here are of excerpts from that conversation:
Bloomberg: “Why did you put out that call on Friday (March 14) about a peak in precious metals?”
Editor’s Note: You can download Bob Prechter’s 5-page report, Gold & Recessions, free from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.
Bob Prechter: “One of the reasons is that it seemed like an absolutely sure thing. We track several indicators of sentiment. One of them is the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI). That reached 98% bulls on a one-day basis going into this last high. We were tracking silver as well… as it is clearest in our minds. Now, at the time, we needed one more slightly new high. That happened Monday morning and silver dropped 15% in 48 hours. That’s a heck of a reversal and I think it’s real.”
“Real” indeed: From their March peaks, gold prices plummeted 34%, alongside a 60% sell-off in silver before hitting the breaks in October. Here, the October 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast prepared for a corrective rebound and wrote:
“Silver traced out a five-wave decline from its March peak…Gold should also rally as silver pushes higher. Once silver’s rise is exhausted (initial target: $15.15), the larger downtrend should resume for both metals.”
A powerful, four-month bounce ensued in both metals: Gold prices came within kissing distance of its March peak before turning down on February 20; silver followed suit — a fulfillment of this bearish, near-term insight presented in the February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:
“Silver has been clear as a bell. Silver is due to turn back down, and gold, which is back at $1000/oz, is likely to follow.”
Since then, it’s been a steady march lower for both metals. Obviously, EWI’s forecasts do not always prove this accurate. Yet in this case the analysis speaks for itself.
For more metals analysis from Bob Prechter, download Gold & Recessions a free 5-page report from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.
In case you hadn’t noticed: Over the past year of financial turmoil, the “safe haven” premium of precious metals has offered about as much support as a rubber ducky in a tsunami. Despite a string of powerful rallies, silver and gold remain well below their March 2008 peaks.
It goes without saying that the greatest opportunities in precious metals were not had by those who played the “disaster hedge” card; but rather by those who timed the trends as they developed, regardless of the fundamental backdrop.
Bob Prechter is in the latter group. Amidst the buzz and whirl of the most bullish backdrop in precious metals’ recent history, gold and silver prices soared to new, all-time highs and calls for a “New Gold Rush” and “$30 Silver” flooded the mainstream airwaves. Yet Bob alerted subscribers to an approaching top in the March 14, 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist.
“The wave count [in silver] is nearly satisfied, though ideally it should end after one more new high. If this analysis is accurate, and silver does peak and begin a bear market, gold is likely to go down with it.”
In the days that followed, prices in both metals fell off a cliff. In turn, Bob was asked to address his exceptional call for a turn down in a March 19, 2008 Bloomberg interview. Here are of excerpts from that conversation:
Bloomberg: “Why did you put out that call on Friday (March 14) about a peak in precious metals?”
Editor’s Note: You can download Bob Prechter’s 5-page report, Gold & Recessions, free from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.
Bob Prechter: “One of the reasons is that it seemed like an absolutely sure thing. We track several indicators of sentiment. One of them is the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI). That reached 98% bulls on a one-day basis going into this last high. We were tracking silver as well… as it is clearest in our minds. Now, at the time, we needed one more slightly new high. That happened Monday morning and silver dropped 15% in 48 hours. That’s a heck of a reversal and I think it’s real.”
“Real” indeed: From their March peaks, gold prices plummeted 34%, alongside a 60% sell-off in silver before hitting the breaks in October. Here, the October 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast prepared for a corrective rebound and wrote:
“Silver traced out a five-wave decline from its March peak…Gold should also rally as silver pushes higher. Once silver’s rise is exhausted (initial target: $15.15), the larger downtrend should resume for both metals.”
A powerful, four-month bounce ensued in both metals: Gold prices came within kissing distance of its March peak before turning down on February 20; silver followed suit — a fulfillment of this bearish, near-term insight presented in the February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:
“Silver has been clear as a bell. Silver is due to turn back down, and gold, which is back at $1000/oz, is likely to follow.”
Since then, it’s been a steady march lower for both metals. Obviously, EWI’s forecasts do not always prove this accurate. Yet in this case the analysis speaks for itself.
For more metals analysis from Bob Prechter, download Gold & Recessions a free 5-page report from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Undi Anda Adalah Untuk Kerajaan Rakyat !!!
UNDI KEADILAN BERMAKNA MEMBINA KEADILAN UNTUK SEMUA RAKYAT MALAYSIA.
JANGAN TERTIPU DENGAN PEMBOHONGAN BN
KITA BINA KERAJAAN RAKYAT YANG BERJUANG UNTUK SEMUA RAKYAT MALAYSIA
ALLAH HU
Friday, April 3, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
Trading Range Is Between 1.4580 to 1.4779
BUY Area - 1.4655 (First Target : 1.4779. Next : 1.4839)
If break 1.4779 candle may test 1.5000 area. It depend if Initial support hold at 1.4580 area. InsyaAllah.
Sell Area - 1.4617 (First Target : 1.4580)
If break 1.4580 candle may drop furthur at 1.4443)
Allah HU
From Market Oracle For You, please read:
Funding the Fund with Gold.
The G20 announcement of tripling IMF resources to $750 billion offered an extra boost for equity markets and higher yielding currencies at the expense of further damage in the dollar and the yen. The G20 confirmed our predictions that central banks will incorporate gold sales to finance assistance for lower income nations. Central banks gold selling would also help stabilize any renewed selling in the greenback and prevent any unwanted appreciation in other currencies.
With US jobless claims at fresh 27-year high of 669K and continuing claims at a record 5.73 million, it is a reminder that macroeconomic deterioration in the US is far from having reached its trough. Even if Friday's March jobs report from the US shows further stabilization on the payrolls front (as did the last 3 reports), the US unemployment rate is likely to exceed 8.1%, thereby, surpassing that of the Eurozone and Germany , a development that could not be imagined just a few months ago by the classic critics of the Eurozone model. And with US consumer credit delinquencies in Q4 surging to an all time high, the deleveraging process within US households relative to that of the Eurozone is another dynamic supporting medium term stabilization in the single currency.
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4655 (First Target : 1.4779. Next : 1.4839)
If break 1.4779 candle may test 1.5000 area. It depend if Initial support hold at 1.4580 area. InsyaAllah.
Sell Area - 1.4617 (First Target : 1.4580)
If break 1.4580 candle may drop furthur at 1.4443)
Allah HU
From Market Oracle For You, please read:
Funding the Fund with Gold.
The G20 announcement of tripling IMF resources to $750 billion offered an extra boost for equity markets and higher yielding currencies at the expense of further damage in the dollar and the yen. The G20 confirmed our predictions that central banks will incorporate gold sales to finance assistance for lower income nations. Central banks gold selling would also help stabilize any renewed selling in the greenback and prevent any unwanted appreciation in other currencies.
With US jobless claims at fresh 27-year high of 669K and continuing claims at a record 5.73 million, it is a reminder that macroeconomic deterioration in the US is far from having reached its trough. Even if Friday's March jobs report from the US shows further stabilization on the payrolls front (as did the last 3 reports), the US unemployment rate is likely to exceed 8.1%, thereby, surpassing that of the Eurozone and Germany , a development that could not be imagined just a few months ago by the classic critics of the Eurozone model. And with US consumer credit delinquencies in Q4 surging to an all time high, the deleveraging process within US households relative to that of the Eurozone is another dynamic supporting medium term stabilization in the single currency.
Allah Hu.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)
Trading Range Is Between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
BUY Area - 1.4423 (My Target is 1.4482. Next : 1.4534 Next : 1.4614).
SELL Area - 1.4385 (My Target is 1.1.4323. Next : 1.4271).
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday my buy area met at 1.4327 and met my target at 1.4450 and stop at 1.4482. Congratulations who got it and I hope you got your target. As I've told before - please set your target and be more discipline. Don't forget the basic before you enter the positions.
Trading Range Is Between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Please be alert on all reversal signal at H4 like Bearish and Bullish Reversal Signal including Doji, morning star, bearish/bullish continuations candle or Abandoned Baby and Harami. Be happy today and please set your target.
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4423 (My Target is 1.4482. Next : 1.4534 Next : 1.4614).
SELL Area - 1.4385 (My Target is 1.1.4323. Next : 1.4271).
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday my buy area met at 1.4327 and met my target at 1.4450 and stop at 1.4482. Congratulations who got it and I hope you got your target. As I've told before - please set your target and be more discipline. Don't forget the basic before you enter the positions.
Trading Range Is Between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Please be alert on all reversal signal at H4 like Bearish and Bullish Reversal Signal including Doji, morning star, bearish/bullish continuations candle or Abandoned Baby and Harami. Be happy today and please set your target.
Allah Hu.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Keep On Eye Out For Recovery On GBP/USD
GBP/USD Today @ 07.27 am (Malaysia):
BUY Area - 1.4327 (My target is 1.4385 Second Target : 1.4450 Third Target : 1.4550)
SELL Area - 1.4283 ( My target is 1.4248. Next : 1.4175 Next 1.4050)
Salam and Hi........
Yesterday my buy area at 1.4243 met and met my target at 1.4336 and stop at 1.4376. Congratulations to those who got it at least 60 pips or more.
Today trading range is still between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Below is some Tips from Kathy Lien site for your reading that I've copy and paste it here. Maybe this statement may help your trading today.
Until then let see together what will happen on GBP/USD today.
Allah Hu.
Keep an Eye Out for a Recovery :
Although the UK economy still faces many risks in 2009, there is hope. Consumer spending has been pretty resilient with November retail sales rising for the first time in 3 months. If the global economy begins to recover, we expect the UK economy to outperform its peers thanks to the Bank of England’s proactiveness. The currency has sold off significantly, providing additional stimulus for the battered economy. Even if there is no full-blown recovery, the UK economy is much further long in their slowdown than the Eurozone. Therefore if we see sharply weaker growth in the Eurozone economy in 2009, expectations for more aggressive ECB interest rate cuts may be all that the British pound needs to recover against the Euro. As for the US dollar, the recovery could come sooner if the quantitative easing forces the greenback lower. When the UK economy begins to recover, so will its currency.
Technical Outlook for the GBP/USD
The British pound experienced a drastic sell-off throughout the year, tumbling to a level not seen since 2002. The pair lost roughly 5,000 pips as the BOE reduced the interest rates far more aggressively than other central banks. Currently, the pair is well below the 200-week and 50-week Simple Moving Average, reflecting in the change of the trend from an upward to a downward bias. Nevertheless, the pair seems to be oversold for the time being, needing a major retracement if it will continue to depreciate further.
The pair still remains in the sell zone that is established using the Bollinger Bands, and until the price closes above the first standard deviation, it could experience a further downtrend. Although the pair is destined to retrace at some point this year, the price still remains within reach of breaking further, establishing a prolonged downward trend. Near term resistance is at 1.5723, the December high. The currency pair could hold above 1.45, but if it breaks that level, the next meaningful support is not until 1.40, which served as support from 2000 to 2001.
BUY Area - 1.4327 (My target is 1.4385 Second Target : 1.4450 Third Target : 1.4550)
SELL Area - 1.4283 ( My target is 1.4248. Next : 1.4175 Next 1.4050)
Salam and Hi........
Yesterday my buy area at 1.4243 met and met my target at 1.4336 and stop at 1.4376. Congratulations to those who got it at least 60 pips or more.
Today trading range is still between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Below is some Tips from Kathy Lien site for your reading that I've copy and paste it here. Maybe this statement may help your trading today.
Until then let see together what will happen on GBP/USD today.
Allah Hu.
Keep an Eye Out for a Recovery :
Although the UK economy still faces many risks in 2009, there is hope. Consumer spending has been pretty resilient with November retail sales rising for the first time in 3 months. If the global economy begins to recover, we expect the UK economy to outperform its peers thanks to the Bank of England’s proactiveness. The currency has sold off significantly, providing additional stimulus for the battered economy. Even if there is no full-blown recovery, the UK economy is much further long in their slowdown than the Eurozone. Therefore if we see sharply weaker growth in the Eurozone economy in 2009, expectations for more aggressive ECB interest rate cuts may be all that the British pound needs to recover against the Euro. As for the US dollar, the recovery could come sooner if the quantitative easing forces the greenback lower. When the UK economy begins to recover, so will its currency.
Technical Outlook for the GBP/USD
The British pound experienced a drastic sell-off throughout the year, tumbling to a level not seen since 2002. The pair lost roughly 5,000 pips as the BOE reduced the interest rates far more aggressively than other central banks. Currently, the pair is well below the 200-week and 50-week Simple Moving Average, reflecting in the change of the trend from an upward to a downward bias. Nevertheless, the pair seems to be oversold for the time being, needing a major retracement if it will continue to depreciate further.
The pair still remains in the sell zone that is established using the Bollinger Bands, and until the price closes above the first standard deviation, it could experience a further downtrend. Although the pair is destined to retrace at some point this year, the price still remains within reach of breaking further, establishing a prolonged downward trend. Near term resistance is at 1.5723, the December high. The currency pair could hold above 1.45, but if it breaks that level, the next meaningful support is not until 1.40, which served as support from 2000 to 2001.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4243 (My Target : 1.4302. Next : 1.4336 Next : 1.4411)
SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
Monday, March 30, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4339 (First Target : 1.4250 Next : 1.4200 Next : 1.4126)
BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
Why USD On A Tear ?
Why is the U.S. Dollar on a Tear?
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)
Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency
Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.
There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.
1) Comments from German Finance Minister
Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.
2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate
Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.
3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20
Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.
4) Japanese Repatriation
The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,
5) U.S. Equity Futures Down
U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)
Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency
Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.
There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.
1) Comments from German Finance Minister
Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.
2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate
Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.
3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20
Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.
4) Japanese Repatriation
The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,
5) U.S. Equity Futures Down
U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Dollar To Be Replaced !!!
UN and PBOC Call For Dollar To Be Replaced By Single World Currency
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
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