Why USD On A Tear ?

Why is the U.S. Dollar on a Tear?
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)

Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency

Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.

There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.

1) Comments from German Finance Minister

Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.

2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate

Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.

3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20

Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.

4) Japanese Repatriation

The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,

5) U.S. Equity Futures Down

U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.