GBP/USD Today @ 07.27 am (Malaysia):
BUY Area - 1.4327 (My target is 1.4385 Second Target : 1.4450 Third Target : 1.4550)
SELL Area - 1.4283 ( My target is 1.4248. Next : 1.4175 Next 1.4050)
Salam and Hi........
Yesterday my buy area at 1.4243 met and met my target at 1.4336 and stop at 1.4376. Congratulations to those who got it at least 60 pips or more.
Today trading range is still between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Below is some Tips from Kathy Lien site for your reading that I've copy and paste it here. Maybe this statement may help your trading today.
Until then let see together what will happen on GBP/USD today.
Allah Hu.
Keep an Eye Out for a Recovery :
Although the UK economy still faces many risks in 2009, there is hope. Consumer spending has been pretty resilient with November retail sales rising for the first time in 3 months. If the global economy begins to recover, we expect the UK economy to outperform its peers thanks to the Bank of England’s proactiveness. The currency has sold off significantly, providing additional stimulus for the battered economy. Even if there is no full-blown recovery, the UK economy is much further long in their slowdown than the Eurozone. Therefore if we see sharply weaker growth in the Eurozone economy in 2009, expectations for more aggressive ECB interest rate cuts may be all that the British pound needs to recover against the Euro. As for the US dollar, the recovery could come sooner if the quantitative easing forces the greenback lower. When the UK economy begins to recover, so will its currency.
Technical Outlook for the GBP/USD
The British pound experienced a drastic sell-off throughout the year, tumbling to a level not seen since 2002. The pair lost roughly 5,000 pips as the BOE reduced the interest rates far more aggressively than other central banks. Currently, the pair is well below the 200-week and 50-week Simple Moving Average, reflecting in the change of the trend from an upward to a downward bias. Nevertheless, the pair seems to be oversold for the time being, needing a major retracement if it will continue to depreciate further.
The pair still remains in the sell zone that is established using the Bollinger Bands, and until the price closes above the first standard deviation, it could experience a further downtrend. Although the pair is destined to retrace at some point this year, the price still remains within reach of breaking further, establishing a prolonged downward trend. Near term resistance is at 1.5723, the December high. The currency pair could hold above 1.45, but if it breaks that level, the next meaningful support is not until 1.40, which served as support from 2000 to 2001.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4243 (My Target : 1.4302. Next : 1.4336 Next : 1.4411)
SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
Monday, March 30, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4339 (First Target : 1.4250 Next : 1.4200 Next : 1.4126)
BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)
Salam and Hi.........
Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.
Allah Hu
Why USD On A Tear ?
Why is the U.S. Dollar on a Tear?
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)
Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency
Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.
There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.
1) Comments from German Finance Minister
Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.
2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate
Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.
3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20
Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.
4) Japanese Repatriation
The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,
5) U.S. Equity Futures Down
U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)
Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency
Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.
There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.
1) Comments from German Finance Minister
Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.
2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate
Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.
3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20
Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.
4) Japanese Repatriation
The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,
5) U.S. Equity Futures Down
U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Dollar To Be Replaced !!!
UN and PBOC Call For Dollar To Be Replaced By Single World Currency
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
Saturday, March 28, 2009
GBP/USD
Sterling:
Confidence in the economy will remain very weak in the short term with expectations of a further deterioration and deep recession. The near-term Sterling trends will also be influenced strongly by trends in risk appetite with a particular focus on the UK banking sector. The UK currency will come under further pressure if confidence in the sector continues to deteriorate while any reassurance over the banks could trigger a sharp corrective rally for the UK currency. In this environment, trading volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels with good buying support on retreats towards 1.35. The Euro looks to offer little short-term value above the 0.95 level against Sterling.
Sterling remained under pressure on Friday and weakened to a fresh 23-year low near 1.35 against the dollar. Sterling also dipped to three-week lows around 0.9470 against the Euro following the UK data. Overall confidence in the economy will remain extremely weak in the short term, especially with budget fears increasing
There will still be some scope for a correction from over-sold conditions, especially after a weekly decline against the dollar of close to 8% and Sterling recovered back to near 1.38 later in US trading. Given the lack of confidence, rallies quickly attract selling pressure and Sterling retreated again towards 23-year lows on Monday with a test of support below the 1.36 level before a rebound to above 1.37 as UK banking shares rallied.
Confidence in the economy will remain very weak in the short term with expectations of a further deterioration and deep recession. The near-term Sterling trends will also be influenced strongly by trends in risk appetite with a particular focus on the UK banking sector. The UK currency will come under further pressure if confidence in the sector continues to deteriorate while any reassurance over the banks could trigger a sharp corrective rally for the UK currency. In this environment, trading volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels with good buying support on retreats towards 1.35. The Euro looks to offer little short-term value above the 0.95 level against Sterling.
Sterling remained under pressure on Friday and weakened to a fresh 23-year low near 1.35 against the dollar. Sterling also dipped to three-week lows around 0.9470 against the Euro following the UK data. Overall confidence in the economy will remain extremely weak in the short term, especially with budget fears increasing
There will still be some scope for a correction from over-sold conditions, especially after a weekly decline against the dollar of close to 8% and Sterling recovered back to near 1.38 later in US trading. Given the lack of confidence, rallies quickly attract selling pressure and Sterling retreated again towards 23-year lows on Monday with a test of support below the 1.36 level before a rebound to above 1.37 as UK banking shares rallied.
Friday, March 27, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area : 1.4485(First Target : 1.4400. Second : 1.4350 Third : 1.4292)
BUY Area : 1.4527(First Target : 1.4606)
Salam and Hi....
Yesterday Sell area met at 1.4577 and met my second target at 1.4467 and stop at 1.4422.
So price at 1.4350 still hold and candle bounce back this morning to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4505. As long as 1.4350 not broken candle possible to test 1.4779.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 to 1.4779 as 1.4779 will be initial resistance.
Allah Hu
BUY Area : 1.4527(First Target : 1.4606)
Salam and Hi....
Yesterday Sell area met at 1.4577 and met my second target at 1.4467 and stop at 1.4422.
So price at 1.4350 still hold and candle bounce back this morning to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4505. As long as 1.4350 not broken candle possible to test 1.4779.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 to 1.4779 as 1.4779 will be initial resistance.
Allah Hu
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Salam ... BISMILLAH HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM Trading Range is between 1.6100 to 1.6500 area. 1. BUY Area : 1.6293 T1 : 1.632...
