Why is the U.S. Dollar on a Tear?
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)
Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency
Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.
There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.
1) Comments from German Finance Minister
Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.
2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate
Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.
3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20
Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.
4) Japanese Repatriation
The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,
5) U.S. Equity Futures Down
U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Dollar To Be Replaced !!!
UN and PBOC Call For Dollar To Be Replaced By Single World Currency
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009
It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.
See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry
U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com
UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.
Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.
Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.
“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.
Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.
Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.
“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.
Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.
It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.
Good Time
Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.
“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.
“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”
Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.
The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.
Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.
The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.
Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.
A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.
Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)
Saturday, March 28, 2009
GBP/USD
Sterling:
Confidence in the economy will remain very weak in the short term with expectations of a further deterioration and deep recession. The near-term Sterling trends will also be influenced strongly by trends in risk appetite with a particular focus on the UK banking sector. The UK currency will come under further pressure if confidence in the sector continues to deteriorate while any reassurance over the banks could trigger a sharp corrective rally for the UK currency. In this environment, trading volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels with good buying support on retreats towards 1.35. The Euro looks to offer little short-term value above the 0.95 level against Sterling.
Sterling remained under pressure on Friday and weakened to a fresh 23-year low near 1.35 against the dollar. Sterling also dipped to three-week lows around 0.9470 against the Euro following the UK data. Overall confidence in the economy will remain extremely weak in the short term, especially with budget fears increasing
There will still be some scope for a correction from over-sold conditions, especially after a weekly decline against the dollar of close to 8% and Sterling recovered back to near 1.38 later in US trading. Given the lack of confidence, rallies quickly attract selling pressure and Sterling retreated again towards 23-year lows on Monday with a test of support below the 1.36 level before a rebound to above 1.37 as UK banking shares rallied.
Confidence in the economy will remain very weak in the short term with expectations of a further deterioration and deep recession. The near-term Sterling trends will also be influenced strongly by trends in risk appetite with a particular focus on the UK banking sector. The UK currency will come under further pressure if confidence in the sector continues to deteriorate while any reassurance over the banks could trigger a sharp corrective rally for the UK currency. In this environment, trading volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels with good buying support on retreats towards 1.35. The Euro looks to offer little short-term value above the 0.95 level against Sterling.
Sterling remained under pressure on Friday and weakened to a fresh 23-year low near 1.35 against the dollar. Sterling also dipped to three-week lows around 0.9470 against the Euro following the UK data. Overall confidence in the economy will remain extremely weak in the short term, especially with budget fears increasing
There will still be some scope for a correction from over-sold conditions, especially after a weekly decline against the dollar of close to 8% and Sterling recovered back to near 1.38 later in US trading. Given the lack of confidence, rallies quickly attract selling pressure and Sterling retreated again towards 23-year lows on Monday with a test of support below the 1.36 level before a rebound to above 1.37 as UK banking shares rallied.
Friday, March 27, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area : 1.4485(First Target : 1.4400. Second : 1.4350 Third : 1.4292)
BUY Area : 1.4527(First Target : 1.4606)
Salam and Hi....
Yesterday Sell area met at 1.4577 and met my second target at 1.4467 and stop at 1.4422.
So price at 1.4350 still hold and candle bounce back this morning to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4505. As long as 1.4350 not broken candle possible to test 1.4779.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 to 1.4779 as 1.4779 will be initial resistance.
Allah Hu
BUY Area : 1.4527(First Target : 1.4606)
Salam and Hi....
Yesterday Sell area met at 1.4577 and met my second target at 1.4467 and stop at 1.4422.
So price at 1.4350 still hold and candle bounce back this morning to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4505. As long as 1.4350 not broken candle possible to test 1.4779.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 to 1.4779 as 1.4779 will be initial resistance.
Allah Hu
Thursday, March 26, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4577 (First Target : 1.4514 Next : 1.4467 Next : 1.4350)
BUY Area - 1.4629 (First Target : 1.4729 Next : 1.4850)
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday the Sell area met at 1.4656 and easily break my target at 1.4575 and stop at 1.4514 - fail to reach my second target at 1.4452. From here candle rebound back at 1.4600 area.
At this moment candle in consolidations mood. Trading Range is between 1.4394 to 1.4779 area. As long as 1.4394 hold and not broken, candle will test again 1.4850 and if success candle may test 1.5000 area within few days.
Let see this happen and happy trading.
Allah Hu
BUY Area - 1.4629 (First Target : 1.4729 Next : 1.4850)
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday the Sell area met at 1.4656 and easily break my target at 1.4575 and stop at 1.4514 - fail to reach my second target at 1.4452. From here candle rebound back at 1.4600 area.
At this moment candle in consolidations mood. Trading Range is between 1.4394 to 1.4779 area. As long as 1.4394 hold and not broken, candle will test again 1.4850 and if success candle may test 1.5000 area within few days.
Let see this happen and happy trading.
Allah Hu
EU presidency: US stimulus is 'the road to hell'
BRUSSELS (AP) -- The head of the European Union slammed President Barack Obama's plan to spend nearly $2 trillion to push the U.S. economy out of recession as "the road to hell" that EU governments must avoid.
The blunt comments by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek to the European Parliament on Wednesday highlighted simmering European differences with Washington ahead of a key summit next week on fixing the world economy.
It was the strongest pushback yet from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.
Shocked by the outburst, other European politicians went into damage control mode, with some reproaching the Czech leader for his language and others reaffirming their good diplomatic ties with the United States. The leaders of EU's major nations -- France, Britain and Germany, among others -- largely ignored Topolanek and his remarks.
Obama pays his first official visit to Europe next week, aiming to thrash out reforms to the global financial system with the Group of 20 nations and call on NATO allies to commit more troops to the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
Europeans leaders hope the new U.S. administration will agree with them on tightening oversight over the global financial system -- which they see as crucial to fixing the global economy.
Instead, the United States is focusing its efforts on economic stimulus and plans to spend heavily to try and lift itself out of recession with a $787 billion plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.
To encourage banks to lend again, the U.S. government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.
Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal will put the ailing U.S. economy back on its feet. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."
But Topolanek took aim at Washington's deficit spending.
"All of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the road to hell," Topolanek said. "We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way."
"Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the liquidity of the global financial market," Topolanek said.
Topolanek spoke the day after he was ousted by his own parliament. The Czech Republic currently holds the six-month rotating EU presidency but its leadership is in question, with Topolanek hanging on to a caretaker government at home after losing a "no confidence" Tuesday.
In Washington, State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said he did not expect the Czech poltical turmoil to affect Obama's upcoming trip to Prague because the president was traveling to attend an EU event.
Analyst Nicolas Veron, a research fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said Topolanek's view is not widely shared by EU leaders.
"I don't think the damage can be as large as the very strong wording of this would lead one to think," he said. "Many people have doubts about the U.S. plan but what he said is much stronger."
Veron said European leaders worry that the U.S. plan may not work or could cost taxpayers heavily -- but he did not doubt the U.S.' "fiscal robustness" or that it still had extra room to maneuver to stoke economic growth.
Martin Schulz, leader of the Socialist group in the European parliament, immediately chided Topolanek, saying his comments were "not the level on which the EU ought to be operating with the United States."
"You have not understood what the task of the EU presidency is," he told the Czech premier.
EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also said it was "not helpful ... to try to suggest that Americans and Europeans are coming with very different approaches to the crisis."
"On the contrary, what we are seeing is increased convergence," he told the parliament.
But Europe's resistance to the U.S. call for new stimulus measures is starting to weaken despite Germany's fierce opposition to any new spending program this year.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday he is prepared to support the economy with a new spending package. EU officials say they can't rule anything out -- even an EU-wide stimulus that could help nations like Ireland and Spain, which can't afford any extra stimulus.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has also supported U.S. calls to ramp up fiscal stimulus -- government spending and tax cuts -- although the Bank of England has warned that Britain's swelling public deficit may make it unable to afford new spending.
Associated Press writers Raf Casert in Strasbourg, France, Jane Wardell in London and Desmond Butler in Washington contributed to this report.
INILAH DIA KEMUSNAHAN ECONOMI CAPITALIST -----
ALLAH HU
The blunt comments by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek to the European Parliament on Wednesday highlighted simmering European differences with Washington ahead of a key summit next week on fixing the world economy.
It was the strongest pushback yet from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.
Shocked by the outburst, other European politicians went into damage control mode, with some reproaching the Czech leader for his language and others reaffirming their good diplomatic ties with the United States. The leaders of EU's major nations -- France, Britain and Germany, among others -- largely ignored Topolanek and his remarks.
Obama pays his first official visit to Europe next week, aiming to thrash out reforms to the global financial system with the Group of 20 nations and call on NATO allies to commit more troops to the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
Europeans leaders hope the new U.S. administration will agree with them on tightening oversight over the global financial system -- which they see as crucial to fixing the global economy.
Instead, the United States is focusing its efforts on economic stimulus and plans to spend heavily to try and lift itself out of recession with a $787 billion plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.
To encourage banks to lend again, the U.S. government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.
Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal will put the ailing U.S. economy back on its feet. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."
But Topolanek took aim at Washington's deficit spending.
"All of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the road to hell," Topolanek said. "We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way."
"Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the liquidity of the global financial market," Topolanek said.
Topolanek spoke the day after he was ousted by his own parliament. The Czech Republic currently holds the six-month rotating EU presidency but its leadership is in question, with Topolanek hanging on to a caretaker government at home after losing a "no confidence" Tuesday.
In Washington, State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said he did not expect the Czech poltical turmoil to affect Obama's upcoming trip to Prague because the president was traveling to attend an EU event.
Analyst Nicolas Veron, a research fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said Topolanek's view is not widely shared by EU leaders.
"I don't think the damage can be as large as the very strong wording of this would lead one to think," he said. "Many people have doubts about the U.S. plan but what he said is much stronger."
Veron said European leaders worry that the U.S. plan may not work or could cost taxpayers heavily -- but he did not doubt the U.S.' "fiscal robustness" or that it still had extra room to maneuver to stoke economic growth.
Martin Schulz, leader of the Socialist group in the European parliament, immediately chided Topolanek, saying his comments were "not the level on which the EU ought to be operating with the United States."
"You have not understood what the task of the EU presidency is," he told the Czech premier.
EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also said it was "not helpful ... to try to suggest that Americans and Europeans are coming with very different approaches to the crisis."
"On the contrary, what we are seeing is increased convergence," he told the parliament.
But Europe's resistance to the U.S. call for new stimulus measures is starting to weaken despite Germany's fierce opposition to any new spending program this year.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday he is prepared to support the economy with a new spending package. EU officials say they can't rule anything out -- even an EU-wide stimulus that could help nations like Ireland and Spain, which can't afford any extra stimulus.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has also supported U.S. calls to ramp up fiscal stimulus -- government spending and tax cuts -- although the Bank of England has warned that Britain's swelling public deficit may make it unable to afford new spending.
Associated Press writers Raf Casert in Strasbourg, France, Jane Wardell in London and Desmond Butler in Washington contributed to this report.
INILAH DIA KEMUSNAHAN ECONOMI CAPITALIST -----
ALLAH HU
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4656 (First Target : 1.4575. Second Target : 1.4452).
BUY Area - 1.4677 (First Target : 1.4779. Second Target : 1.4850).
Salam and Hi........
Yesterday as aspected my buy area met and achived my second target at 1.4750 and close at 1.4779. From there candle drop back to 1.4636 and at this moment still in consolidations move from that drop. Looks like market is still testing 1.4850 today. Anyway fail to do so, candle may drop back to find 1.4350. From here maybe candle will test yesterday high at 1.4779. Good Luck.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 - 1.4850.
Breaking 1.4850 candle may test 1.5000 area.
Salam and Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4677 (First Target : 1.4779. Second Target : 1.4850).
Salam and Hi........
Yesterday as aspected my buy area met and achived my second target at 1.4750 and close at 1.4779. From there candle drop back to 1.4636 and at this moment still in consolidations move from that drop. Looks like market is still testing 1.4850 today. Anyway fail to do so, candle may drop back to find 1.4350. From here maybe candle will test yesterday high at 1.4779. Good Luck.
Trading Range is between 1.4350 - 1.4850.
Breaking 1.4850 candle may test 1.5000 area.
Salam and Allah Hu.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
GBP/USD @ 10.30 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4571 (My Target is 1.4661. Next is 1,4750.Possible to test 1.4850)
SELL Area - 1.4531 (My Target is 1,4453)
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday as aspected candle break 1.4661 and stop at 1.4692. At this moments candle is on consolidations from 1.4692. Candle may test 1.4750 and if success, candle possible to test 1.4850. From here candle may test 1.4850 or 1.5000 area within few days.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4531 (My Target is 1,4453)
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday as aspected candle break 1.4661 and stop at 1.4692. At this moments candle is on consolidations from 1.4692. Candle may test 1.4750 and if success, candle possible to test 1.4850. From here candle may test 1.4850 or 1.5000 area within few days.
Allah Hu.
Monday, March 23, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4493 (First Target: 1.4584. Second Target :1.4661 Third : 1.4733)
Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4661. Break 1.4661 candle will test 1.4985. But if fail candle may drop back to test 1.4473.
SELL Area - 1.4450 (First Target : 1.3841)
Salam and Hi....
Candle is still on consolidations uptrend move from last week. If fail to break and drop to 1.4473, candle is possible to test 1.4661 and possible to test 1.4985. Looks like Initial Support already performed at 1.3654, fail to test 1.3500 - major support for GBP/USD in 23 years old. If this happen no doubt candle will test 1.5372 area within a few days. Let see this happen and please be alert on all reversal pattern of candlestick.
Allah Hu.
Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4661. Break 1.4661 candle will test 1.4985. But if fail candle may drop back to test 1.4473.
SELL Area - 1.4450 (First Target : 1.3841)
Salam and Hi....
Candle is still on consolidations uptrend move from last week. If fail to break and drop to 1.4473, candle is possible to test 1.4661 and possible to test 1.4985. Looks like Initial Support already performed at 1.3654, fail to test 1.3500 - major support for GBP/USD in 23 years old. If this happen no doubt candle will test 1.5372 area within a few days. Let see this happen and please be alert on all reversal pattern of candlestick.
Allah Hu.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
TIPs From Uncommon Wisdom
Dollar Begins Decline
by Larry Edelson on March 19, 2009
The much anticipated decline of the US dollar appears to have started with yesterday’s announcement that the Federal Reserve will start buying up to $300 billion of Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The action is expected to expand the central bank’s balance sheet by $1.15 trillion. The excess supply of dollars is threatening investors with fears of an inflationary spiral. The Dollar Index reflected this as it fell 2.7%, the largest one day drop since 1971.
The dollar started on a declining trend in 2005 amid concerns for the United States’ expanding current account deficit. However, this trend was largely reversed last year as investors flocked to risk free U.S. Treasury Bills amid panic in global financial markets, raising demand. Analysts also agree much of the demand for the dollar was made up of investors unwinding their positions, and was not actual sustainable demand.
My Opinion: These actions emphasize the severity of the economic crisis in the U.S. While the recession has taken its toll on most economies, central banks have largely avoided printing money at the pace the Fed has. Eventual devaluation isn’t a hypothesis but rather a proven fact — printing money leads to inflation, which erodes the value of the currency in question. One needn’t look further than Zimbabwe to see this in action.
As more money is printed, there is more currency chasing the same amount of goods. Production isn’t increasing in the United States and all this excess capital will be representative of the same volume of production. If for example there was $100 in an economy which produced 10 equal products, each product would be valued at $10. If the central bank printed an extra $50 and let it circulate without any matching increase in production, $150 would be representative of the same 10 products, thus pricing them at $15 each, resulting in 50% inflation.
As inflationary pressure mounts, I expect more investors to dump dollars in favor of assets that offer a better inflationary hedge, like gold.
by Larry Edelson on March 19, 2009
The much anticipated decline of the US dollar appears to have started with yesterday’s announcement that the Federal Reserve will start buying up to $300 billion of Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The action is expected to expand the central bank’s balance sheet by $1.15 trillion. The excess supply of dollars is threatening investors with fears of an inflationary spiral. The Dollar Index reflected this as it fell 2.7%, the largest one day drop since 1971.
The dollar started on a declining trend in 2005 amid concerns for the United States’ expanding current account deficit. However, this trend was largely reversed last year as investors flocked to risk free U.S. Treasury Bills amid panic in global financial markets, raising demand. Analysts also agree much of the demand for the dollar was made up of investors unwinding their positions, and was not actual sustainable demand.
My Opinion: These actions emphasize the severity of the economic crisis in the U.S. While the recession has taken its toll on most economies, central banks have largely avoided printing money at the pace the Fed has. Eventual devaluation isn’t a hypothesis but rather a proven fact — printing money leads to inflation, which erodes the value of the currency in question. One needn’t look further than Zimbabwe to see this in action.
As more money is printed, there is more currency chasing the same amount of goods. Production isn’t increasing in the United States and all this excess capital will be representative of the same volume of production. If for example there was $100 in an economy which produced 10 equal products, each product would be valued at $10. If the central bank printed an extra $50 and let it circulate without any matching increase in production, $150 would be representative of the same 10 products, thus pricing them at $15 each, resulting in 50% inflation.
As inflationary pressure mounts, I expect more investors to dump dollars in favor of assets that offer a better inflationary hedge, like gold.
Friday, March 20, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4427 ( First target - 1.4606).
SELL Area - 1.4395 ( First target - 1.4234. Next - 1.4155)
Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4606.
Salam. Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4395 ( First target - 1.4234. Next - 1.4155)
Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4606.
Salam. Allah Hu.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 04.30 am (Malaysia)
Salam and Hi....
Huhuhu yesterday both my sell and buy area met the target. Please reffer back yesterday predictions. I've heard some of them got more 500 pips up and down. Candle at M30 Chart at 04.30 am (Malaysia) already performed Abandoned baby - might give another at least 60 pips. Let see this happen pal. I want to sleep now after Morning Prayer and let's wait my next predictions after 12.00 noon today. Have to get some rest after chating long hour with Mr. Ziga from Slovenia. Until then good morning to all my frenssssssssssss. Allah Hu.
09.30 am (malaysia):
Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4606. Look like the drop from 1.4985 already accomplised and maybe candle already found the initial support to test the initial resistance at 1.4985 - I hope so and let us see this happen or not:
BUY Area - 1.4173 (My target is 1.4350. Next is 1.4481. Possiblelly will test 1.4606 area)
SELL Area - 1.4133 (My target is 1.3932. Next 1.3841 area)
Allah Hu.
ps : have to continued my sleeping time - I hope so if no hp call. Salam.
Huhuhu yesterday both my sell and buy area met the target. Please reffer back yesterday predictions. I've heard some of them got more 500 pips up and down. Candle at M30 Chart at 04.30 am (Malaysia) already performed Abandoned baby - might give another at least 60 pips. Let see this happen pal. I want to sleep now after Morning Prayer and let's wait my next predictions after 12.00 noon today. Have to get some rest after chating long hour with Mr. Ziga from Slovenia. Until then good morning to all my frenssssssssssss. Allah Hu.
09.30 am (malaysia):
Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4606. Look like the drop from 1.4985 already accomplised and maybe candle already found the initial support to test the initial resistance at 1.4985 - I hope so and let us see this happen or not:
BUY Area - 1.4173 (My target is 1.4350. Next is 1.4481. Possiblelly will test 1.4606 area)
SELL Area - 1.4133 (My target is 1.3932. Next 1.3841 area)
Allah Hu.
ps : have to continued my sleeping time - I hope so if no hp call. Salam.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 01.00 pm (Malaysia)
Salam and Hi,
Sorry for my late predictions. Today let see the Daily chart and I already found a doji like a dragon fly. That is a very good reverse signal. Furthur more new candle open below middle of BB - that mean at this moment candle may drop down and it mean High To Sell. Please refer all the discipline before you enter your positions.
My sell target today is 1.3926 and possiblely may drop to 1.3850. If break this level candle may drop to 1.3654. Please set your target at least 60 pips today. If you want more please use Trailing Stop to protect your profit. People who set target will gain profit and it is confirm. 60 pips a day x 10 day x $10 = $6000 and it is confirm solid profit. Think about this and dont wait hundred of pips - you will regret later.
Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231. Break 1.4231 candle may test 1.4305. Let see this happen.
ALLAH HU.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)
Trading Range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231.
1. BUY Area 1.4101 (MY target is 1.4231. Next is 1.4303. Possiblely may go further up to 1.4600 area).
2. SELL Area 1.4061 (my target is 1.3934. Next is 1.3705).
Allah Hu.
1. BUY Area 1.4101 (MY target is 1.4231. Next is 1.4303. Possiblely may go further up to 1.4600 area).
2. SELL Area 1.4061 (my target is 1.3934. Next is 1.3705).
Allah Hu.
Monday, March 16, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 09.50 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.3991 (Mt Target is 1.4090. Next 1.4151)
SELL Area - 1.3947 (Mr Target is 1.3870. Next 1.3763).
SELL Area - 1.3947 (Mr Target is 1.3870. Next 1.3763).
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Happy Week End To All My Frens - no predictions today !!!
I rest at home at this moment and maybe tomorrow will be at Bagan Lalang with Dr. Harveen.
Tip From Market Oracle:
GBP rallied to hold the 1.3800 handle after scoring highs at 1.3841 suggesting that the low-volume dip to the 1.3550 area overnight was a bear-trap. Further upside is likely if the rate can score the 1.3900 handle mid-week as the rate is overdue for a short-squeeze in my view.
Rate two-way and recovers after a marginal new low into support overnight. 23 year lows in sight but the rate is attracting bids. Reversal off weekly lows a positive technical but the volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group. Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to rebound hard to wash-out the shorts again. After yesterday’s action I think both sides will take a break. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with long-term support at 1.3500 area now in play. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Short squeeze back on the board I think.
Tip From Market Oracle:
GBP rallied to hold the 1.3800 handle after scoring highs at 1.3841 suggesting that the low-volume dip to the 1.3550 area overnight was a bear-trap. Further upside is likely if the rate can score the 1.3900 handle mid-week as the rate is overdue for a short-squeeze in my view.
Rate two-way and recovers after a marginal new low into support overnight. 23 year lows in sight but the rate is attracting bids. Reversal off weekly lows a positive technical but the volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group. Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to rebound hard to wash-out the shorts again. After yesterday’s action I think both sides will take a break. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with long-term support at 1.3500 area now in play. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Short squeeze back on the board I think.
Friday, March 13, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 08.15 am (Malaysia)
Trading range is between 1.3645 to 1.4305:
BUY Area - 1.3887 (My target is 1.3985. Next target is 1.4090)
SELL Area - 1.3845 (MY target is 1.3780. Next target is 1.3645)
Salam and Hi.....
Yesterday both my Sell and Buy area met. Sell area fail to meet my first target at 1.3653, stop at 1.3698 and rebound to find Mr. Pivot again. My BUY area at 1.3827 met and also met my first target at 1.3955 and stop at 1.3982. After that the price drop back and stop at 1.3908.
So what Next for today :
Looks at H4 chart - there already performed Abandoned Baby pattern. No doubt candle will drop to find Mr. Pivot.
RSI7 is going down so do ATR is already down. Its Bearish at this moment 08.45 am Malaysia. Candle is already back in from outside UL BB.
Good Luck.
ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU
TIP from me at 03.10 pm (Malaysia):
salam.... doa umat Islam pada hari jumaat di makbulkan Allah - insyaAllah. Kalau tak pecah 1.4090 petang ini candle akan test 1.3645 hari ini - insyaAllah malam. Kalau gagal test di bawah dia rebound balik cari Mr. Pivot.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 06.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.3827 (My target is 1.3955. Second target is 1.4090)
As long as 1.3955 not broken, candle may drop back to test 1.3600 area. If break 1.3955, candle will test 1.4090.
SELL Area - 1.3787 (My target is 1.3653)
Trading Range is between 1.3600 - 1.4305.
Salam and Allah Hu.
ps... busy today because may daughter iqin got her SPM results today. Available after 2.00 pm.
As long as 1.3955 not broken, candle may drop back to test 1.3600 area. If break 1.3955, candle will test 1.4090.
SELL Area - 1.3787 (My target is 1.3653)
Trading Range is between 1.3600 - 1.4305.
Salam and Allah Hu.
ps... busy today because may daughter iqin got her SPM results today. Available after 2.00 pm.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 01.15 pm (Malaysia)
SELL Area - Free Fall Today - please use your relevan indicator that mean High To sell Low To Buy. My target is 1.3500 area.
Initial resistance is at 1.4305. As long 1.3950 not broken candle may drop to 1.3600 area and the major support to test is 1.3500.
That mean today is a Bearish day. Let see this happen and please use all the relevan indicator and be more discipline. Good Luck.
Allah Hu.... Allah Hu... Allah Hu.
Initial resistance is at 1.4305. As long 1.3950 not broken candle may drop to 1.3600 area and the major support to test is 1.3500.
That mean today is a Bearish day. Let see this happen and please use all the relevan indicator and be more discipline. Good Luck.
Allah Hu.... Allah Hu... Allah Hu.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.3883 ( My target is 1.3700. Possiblely to test 1.3500 area)
BUY Area - 1.3923 ( My target is 1.4065. After that 1.4305)
Salam and Hi......
Trading Range is between 1.3500 to 1.4305.
1. SELL Area - Break 1.3700 candle will test 1.3600 and if success candle will test 2009 Low at 1.3500. This will happen as long as 1.3950 area not broken.
2. BUY Area - Break 1.4305 candle will test 1.4606. This only will happen if 1.3950 area broken.
ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU...
ps : this predictions is only for the use of my student and relevan to some indicator such like RSI, Stoch, MA, BB on H4 chart. I'm not responsible to any results you get by using my predictions.For some Forex gurus who been criticise my predictions thanks to you. This is my technic to teach people - and I just dont care wether this predictions is good or not. Because what I knew this guaranteed at least 60 pips a day make good result for somebody name Mr Syarbainy from Malacca who manage got 380 pips on yesterday predictions. Hehehe... my way is my way not yours.
kepada yang cemburu dengan saya seperti Haji Azmi dari Taman U, Johor ingat tuan Haji Azmi @ gedik @ Jakun - Fitnah yang tuan lemparkan kepada saya mengenai Farflex Commerce tidak akan saya maafkan. Kecuali anda memohon maaf secara terbuka di forum itu dan menyesal memfitnah saya. Kalau tidak Tuan Haji tanggunglah dosa fitnah itu dan saya tidak akan pedulikannya lagi.
Salam.
BUY Area - 1.3923 ( My target is 1.4065. After that 1.4305)
Salam and Hi......
Trading Range is between 1.3500 to 1.4305.
1. SELL Area - Break 1.3700 candle will test 1.3600 and if success candle will test 2009 Low at 1.3500. This will happen as long as 1.3950 area not broken.
2. BUY Area - Break 1.4305 candle will test 1.4606. This only will happen if 1.3950 area broken.
ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU...
ps : this predictions is only for the use of my student and relevan to some indicator such like RSI, Stoch, MA, BB on H4 chart. I'm not responsible to any results you get by using my predictions.For some Forex gurus who been criticise my predictions thanks to you. This is my technic to teach people - and I just dont care wether this predictions is good or not. Because what I knew this guaranteed at least 60 pips a day make good result for somebody name Mr Syarbainy from Malacca who manage got 380 pips on yesterday predictions. Hehehe... my way is my way not yours.
kepada yang cemburu dengan saya seperti Haji Azmi dari Taman U, Johor ingat tuan Haji Azmi @ gedik @ Jakun - Fitnah yang tuan lemparkan kepada saya mengenai Farflex Commerce tidak akan saya maafkan. Kecuali anda memohon maaf secara terbuka di forum itu dan menyesal memfitnah saya. Kalau tidak Tuan Haji tanggunglah dosa fitnah itu dan saya tidak akan pedulikannya lagi.
Salam.
Monday, March 9, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)
1. SELL Area - 1.4117 (my target is 1.3950. May drop further to 1.3850).
2. BUY Area - 1.4157 (my target is 1.4236.Possibility to test 1.4383).
Salam and Hi.....
Trading Range is between 1.3950 to 1.4383:
1. Break 1.3950 candle will drop to test 1.3850.
2. Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4606 area.
Allah Hu.
2. BUY Area - 1.4157 (my target is 1.4236.Possibility to test 1.4383).
Salam and Hi.....
Trading Range is between 1.3950 to 1.4383:
1. Break 1.3950 candle will drop to test 1.3850.
2. Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4606 area.
Allah Hu.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Euro in Freefall as European Monetary Union Faces Collapse
Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being exposed for all of its structural weaknesses.
The euro is managed with a common monetary policy. But a fractured fiscal and political structure has left it without a full toolbox to fight hard times. And this chink in the armor is threatening to make the euro's life-span short.
The U.S., China, the UK, Japan, and Australia have made aggressive, downward adjustments in interest rates. Some have boosted their money supply to fight the economic crisis and have formulated specific fiscal stimulus plans to inject growth into their economies.
Meanwhile, members of the European Union's monetary system (the single currency) are left frozen in a rigid, inflexible and arguably faulty regime.
But lack of flexibility is not even the most dangerous problem the euro member countries are facing. Even more dangerous to the euro's future existence is the death-spiraling plunge of neighboring eastern and central European “non-euro” countries.
The New Iron Curtain …
For the outliers in emerging Europe, many of whom are ex-communist economies, the impenetrable curtain is membership into the European Union's monetary system, the euro. Most importantly, membership in the common currency gives these countries refuge from speculators launching attacks on their currencies.
Keep in mind that it's hard enough for even the most powerful countries in the world to sustain through the biggest economic downturn since World War II. But economies that are highly dependent upon exports and foreign direct investment — both of which have dried up — plus debt obligations that increase in value by the day, have even more obstacles to overcome.
You see, when companies and consumers in these small “periphery” European countries borrowed money, they borrowed in euros and Swiss francs, not their local currencies. In fact, the level of borrowing in foreign currencies by countries like Latvia represents as much as 90 percent of the bank loans made in that country.
And why not … After all, euro-denominated loans were cheaper and interest rates were more stable. What's more, these periphery countries assumed that they would be joining their rich neighbors in the euro in the near future.
That's why I see two black clouds threatening the euro's survival …
Black Cloud #1 — Pressures from Non-Euro Countries
When the economic engine of your economy stalls (i.e. global demand for your exports evaporates) and the fragility of your financial system is glaring, investors flee and speculators wage an attack on your currency.
And this is precisely what's taking place in the currency markets right now …
Emerging market economies in Europe have been hammered, driving DOWN the value of their currencies and driving UP the value of the foreign-currency denominated debt that consumers and institutions in these countries are holding.
When a currency devalues, foreign-currency denominated debts become more and more expensive. For a perspective on how much these debts are escalating, here is an indication of the sharp decline these at-risk currencies have made.
So how does this affect Europe as a whole and more specifically the future of the euro?
The aggressive lending practices in the global, credit-led boom were just that — aggressive. Now, add into the equation:
The slowing (if not collapsing) economies in this emerging European region,
Plus the increasingly unstable political environments,
Plus the currency-driven debt inflation …
… and the likely outcome is indeed bleak.
So how much are the rich, Western European banks, that made these loans to emerging Europe, on the hook for?
It's in the $3.6 trillion range. And add to that, European banks on whole have debt levels that dwarf every other developed market country, even that of the United States.
Black Cloud #2 — Vulnerability of the Euro Concept
Aside from the pressures being cooked up on the periphery, the euro member countries are in trouble for all of the reasons Milton Friedman, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, cited prior to the euro's inception 10 years ago.
I'll paraphrase four of Friedman's statements and follow each with what is going on now:
A one-size fits all monetary policy doesn't give the member countries the flexibility needed to stimulate their economies.
The European Central Bank has been behind the curve on lowering interest rates because of mandated benchmarks on inflation and without attention to growth.
A fractured fiscal policy forced to adhere to rigid EU rules doesn't enable member governments to navigate their country-specific problems, such as deficit spending and public works projects.
France, Spain, Malta, Greece and Ireland have disregarded the EU's Stability and Growth Pact by running excessive deficits.
Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors.
Hungary has walked into the latest EU summit, hat-in-hand, asking for a mere 190 billion euros; Germany has rejected the notion of big spending to bail-out countries, and German citizens are in protectionist mode.
A common currency can act as handcuffs in perilous times. Exchange rates can be used as a tool to revalue debt and improve competitiveness of one's economy.
Under the euro, weak member countries are helpless. Italy has a history of competitive devaluations of the lira during sour times. Now, in the euro regime, its economy is left flapping in the wind.
Milton Friedman predicted that the euro would collapse within 10 years of its inception.
As Jack has written in past Money and Markets columns, Milton Friedman saw the vulnerability of this concept coming and predicted the euro's demise within a decade.
Today, the most challenging issue facing the euro might be addressed in this statement:
“Political unity can pave the way for monetary unity. Monetary unity imposed under unfavorable conditions will prove a barrier to the achievement of political unity.”
Germany, the core of the euro and the rich uncle to its euro-member partners, appears increasingly intolerant of the less responsible, less viable partners. Could they make an unexpected departure from the currency union?
Is the next target for the euro the 2000 lows?
In late 2000, just short of two years following its launch, the euro hit an all-time low of 0.8230 — off 30 percent from its January 1999 opening level.
The chart above suggests the euro could soon revisit that level. And with the events unfolding as I've laid out today, it could be sooner rather than later.
Regards,
Bryan Rich
Saturday, March 7, 2009
What Is Forex !!!
This is yours and please read it:
What Is The Forex?
Profits are made from the difference in value between the two currencies (the exchange rate). Because currencies are no longer tied to the gold standard, exchange rates are constantly fluctuating. Speculators trade currencies with the expectation that one will gain in strength against the other. These trades are leveraged, with a small downpayment controlling a much larger sum, so even small changes in value can create large profits or losses.
The Forex is the mother of all markets, with trading of more than U.S. $1.5 trillion daily. That抯 more than one hundred times the size of the New York Stock Exchange. Because the market is so large, extremely liquid; there抯 always an immediate buyer or seller for any of the major currency pairs. Most of this trading is done for profit; only five percent of the trades made each day are for the purpose of changing currencies for business or travel.
The Forex market is also so large that it cannot be manipulated. Even powerful central banks can抰 force the market to do their bidding, as the Bank of England found out in 1992. When the BoE used reserves to support the pound against the Euro, investors traded against the pound and by sheer numbers overwhelmed the BoE. It抯 rumored that one investor, George Soros, made a profit of U.S. $1 billion overnight.
The Forex is a completely virtual marketplace. There抯 no building where buyers and sellers meet, or where brokers hang out looking for action. All trading takes place over the telephone or on the Internet. Small investors trade currency brokers, who in turn place their orders through large banks. Commissions are low and are built into the exchange rate.
It was once said that the sun never set on the British Empire. The same can be said for the Forex trading 揹ay,?which lasts roughly six days. It opens in Sydney with the local Monday morning, then moves with the sun to Tokyo, Frankfurt, London, and finally York, ten back around again to Sydney. It closes in New York on Friday evening. This means that, at any time of the day or night during each work week, some currency, somewhere around the world, is actively trading. The clock may say it抯 midnight, but there are still opportunities to make money on the Forex.
These long trading hours allow investors to speculate on the results of world events as they抮e happening. If a country has announced that it will release relating to its economic growth or decline, an investor can take advantage of the influence of that announcement on the country抯 currency梕ven if it抯 taking place during his night.
What Is The Forex?
Profits are made from the difference in value between the two currencies (the exchange rate). Because currencies are no longer tied to the gold standard, exchange rates are constantly fluctuating. Speculators trade currencies with the expectation that one will gain in strength against the other. These trades are leveraged, with a small downpayment controlling a much larger sum, so even small changes in value can create large profits or losses.
The Forex is the mother of all markets, with trading of more than U.S. $1.5 trillion daily. That抯 more than one hundred times the size of the New York Stock Exchange. Because the market is so large, extremely liquid; there抯 always an immediate buyer or seller for any of the major currency pairs. Most of this trading is done for profit; only five percent of the trades made each day are for the purpose of changing currencies for business or travel.
The Forex market is also so large that it cannot be manipulated. Even powerful central banks can抰 force the market to do their bidding, as the Bank of England found out in 1992. When the BoE used reserves to support the pound against the Euro, investors traded against the pound and by sheer numbers overwhelmed the BoE. It抯 rumored that one investor, George Soros, made a profit of U.S. $1 billion overnight.
The Forex is a completely virtual marketplace. There抯 no building where buyers and sellers meet, or where brokers hang out looking for action. All trading takes place over the telephone or on the Internet. Small investors trade currency brokers, who in turn place their orders through large banks. Commissions are low and are built into the exchange rate.
It was once said that the sun never set on the British Empire. The same can be said for the Forex trading 揹ay,?which lasts roughly six days. It opens in Sydney with the local Monday morning, then moves with the sun to Tokyo, Frankfurt, London, and finally York, ten back around again to Sydney. It closes in New York on Friday evening. This means that, at any time of the day or night during each work week, some currency, somewhere around the world, is actively trading. The clock may say it抯 midnight, but there are still opportunities to make money on the Forex.
These long trading hours allow investors to speculate on the results of world events as they抮e happening. If a country has announced that it will release relating to its economic growth or decline, an investor can take advantage of the influence of that announcement on the country抯 currency梕ven if it抯 taking place during his night.
Friday, March 6, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 7.15 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4111 (My Target is 1.3850)
BUY Area - 1.4151 (My Target is 1.4250)
If fail to break S1 candle my drop back at 1.4132.
Salam and Hi...
Yesterday my Buy and Sell area met but fail to reach my target. Congratulations who get them and hopping today will be much better. Set your target and the target must be reasonable. Let say your target is 60 pips a day oldo the market may go to 200 pips but please remember this, that the 200 pips is not confirm. But your target of 60 pips will be confirm and you should achive it asap if you take care of your discipline. Belive me, without a proper discipline you will be failure trader.
SO WHAT NEXT FOR TODAY????
Uwahhhhhh I have to go to bed now - have to get some sleep and hope to have a 4 hours rest to refresh my mind. I will send my predictions asap when I'm ready. Until then thanks for your reading here.
ALLAH HU.
My Predictions On 03.30 pm (Malaysia):
Trading Range Is Between 1.3957 to 1.4383.
1. Break 1.3957 candle may drop sharply to 1.3850.
2. Break 1.4383 candle may go up furthur to test 1.4606 area.
At this moment candle move from a rebound at 1.3957. This rebound are a consolidations movement from 1.4232 and look like more on corections from the drop. If fail to break 1.4383 area candle will drop back to 1.4132 area.
Let see this happen and be happy always. Please control your emosions and set the target.
AKU HIDUP AKU TERBAIK AKU PASTI BERJAYA.
ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.
BUY Area - 1.4151 (My Target is 1.4250)
If fail to break S1 candle my drop back at 1.4132.
Salam and Hi...
Yesterday my Buy and Sell area met but fail to reach my target. Congratulations who get them and hopping today will be much better. Set your target and the target must be reasonable. Let say your target is 60 pips a day oldo the market may go to 200 pips but please remember this, that the 200 pips is not confirm. But your target of 60 pips will be confirm and you should achive it asap if you take care of your discipline. Belive me, without a proper discipline you will be failure trader.
SO WHAT NEXT FOR TODAY????
Uwahhhhhh I have to go to bed now - have to get some sleep and hope to have a 4 hours rest to refresh my mind. I will send my predictions asap when I'm ready. Until then thanks for your reading here.
ALLAH HU.
My Predictions On 03.30 pm (Malaysia):
Trading Range Is Between 1.3957 to 1.4383.
1. Break 1.3957 candle may drop sharply to 1.3850.
2. Break 1.4383 candle may go up furthur to test 1.4606 area.
At this moment candle move from a rebound at 1.3957. This rebound are a consolidations movement from 1.4232 and look like more on corections from the drop. If fail to break 1.4383 area candle will drop back to 1.4132 area.
Let see this happen and be happy always. Please control your emosions and set the target.
AKU HIDUP AKU TERBAIK AKU PASTI BERJAYA.
ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 9.30 pm (Malaysia)
BUY Area : 1.4137 (My target is 1.4250)
SELL Area : 1.4097 (My target is 1.3950).
Salam....
Yesterday Buy Area met at 1.4075 and met my first target at 1.4156 and stop at 1.4198. Congratulations who got that and bank-in more 100 pips.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area : 1.4097 (My target is 1.3950).
Salam....
Yesterday Buy Area met at 1.4075 and met my first target at 1.4156 and stop at 1.4198. Congratulations who got that and bank-in more 100 pips.
Allah Hu.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 3.30 pm (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4075 (my target is 1.4156 and after that 1.4350 area).
SELL Area - 1.4035 (my target is 1.3950 and after that 1.3850 area).
Trading Range is between 1.3850 to 1.4350
Salam..... and Hi.
Candle is on consolidations move from 1.4660 drop and furthur drop is possible to 1.3850 and may drop to 1.3700 area in few days.
The nearest resistance is at 1.4156 and if break candle may go up furthur to test 1.4350. If this happen candle will test 1.4660 area. If fail candle will find Mr. pivot again at 1.4054 and from here will test 1.3850 area.
Please be aware on all reversal signal like Harami, doji, inverted hammer or hangging man.
Let see this happen and happy trading.
Allah Hu.
H4 Charts At 06.30 pm (Malaysia):
Look at H4 chart - candle is trying to break 61.80% Fibonaci and is on going to test 50% Fibo. If success candle will try to break my target at 1.4156. If success candle will try to test R3 at 1.4263. If fail candle will drop back to Mr. Pivot at 1.4054 and deffinately will test 1.3850 area.
Let we see this happen and please be more discipline on all the relevan indicator.
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 10.15 am (malaysia
SELL Area - 1.4077 ( First Target : 1.3950 Second Target 1.3850)
BUY Area - 1.4117 ( My target is : 1.4160 Second Target : 1.4287)
Trading Range is between 1.3950 - 1.4383 :
Salam and Hi,
Yesterday candle break 1.4090 and drop until 1.3956 but fail to break my second target at 1.3850. So candle move back up but fail to find Mr. Pivot. So what next for today :
1. SELL Area : Break 1.3950 candle will test 1.3850. If success candle may drop to 1.3700 area within few days.
2. BUY Area : Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4661 level in couple of days.
Allah Hu.
Monday, March 2, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (malaysia
SELL Area - 1.4241 (My target is 1.4161)
BUY Area - 1.4281 (My target is 1.4383)
Trading range is between 1.4090 to 1.4383.
1. SELL Area - Break 1.4090 candle in favor to test 1.3850. Fail to break candle will bounce back to 1.4262.
2. BUY Area - Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4660 area.
BUY Area - 1.4281 (My target is 1.4383)
Trading range is between 1.4090 to 1.4383.
1. SELL Area - Break 1.4090 candle in favor to test 1.3850. Fail to break candle will bounce back to 1.4262.
2. BUY Area - Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4660 area.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
GBP/USD Pair What Next Next Week/Month - My Predictions !!!
What Happen On February 2009:
Trading Range is between 1.4050 (02 February 2009 Low) to 1.4985 (09 February 2009 High Level). Both are used as:
1. Initial Support - 1.4050
2. Initial Resistance - 1.4985
The move from 1.3500 (2009 year Low and 23 year record Low) is a consolidations from 2.1144 (01 November 2007 record high for GBP/USD)sharply drop and bounce back to met 1.5372 (2009 High Level)on 08th January 2009. Please reffer the Daily Chart attached to get more view on this statement.
So What Next Will Happen On Mach 2009 - Please Dont Belive me:
Yes please don't belive me because this is only my view and my predictions for my student only. For them please use these predictions for your own predictions using all the relevan indicator on H4 chart and M30/M5 and H1 charts.
As I've told on friday 27th Febraury 2009, trading range is between 1.4050 and 1.4660. If breaks any level candle will drop or go further. Fail to do so candle will find Mr. Pivot again at 1.4277 and if break, candle will move further.
But both movement candle fail to break those intial support and resistance. Candle bounce back to Mr. Pivot and move further up but fail to meet my first target at 1.4416 that end at level 1.4363. But Sell area met my first target at 1.4150 and drop until met 1.4109 fail to break my second target at 1.4050 - a different of 59 pips only.
On Daily chart candle stop at 1.4314 area on IBFX chart. Already performed the continuations of the Harami movement as I mention on Friday predictions. So do weekly chart that also performed Harami pattern and look like candle will move furthur up on monday morning and maybe a gap will commenced. The BB are flat and candle on next week will move between middle band.
The nearest Resistance is 1.4660 but if break this level candle will test 1.4985 level. From here it will test 2009 record high at 1.5372.
On H4 chart candle already above Middle of BB and support by the RSI 7 that is on the way to go up. Anyway candle before close at high and suppose next candle must drop first before make a continuations on Bullish move.
So for me let just see what will happen on monday morning when Asia Market open at 07.00 am Malaysia clock. Until then please read all the analysis statement given to you before.
Salam and Allah Hu.
Friday, February 27, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 08.00 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4297 (My target is 1.4416. Possibility to Break 1.4660).
SELL Area - 1.4257 (My target is 1.4150. After that 1.4050).
Salam and Hi,
What Next For Today :
Trading Range is between 1.4050 to 1.4660.
Please refer to H4 chart at 08.00 am Malaysia Clock. Candle open below middle of BB. RSI 7 is going down. Candle try to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4277 and yesterday Low at 1.4160. If success candle will test Initial support at 1.4050 again.
If fail candle will rebound back to test yesterday high at 1.4382. If success candle will try Initial Resistance at 1.4660.
Anyway please refer to daily chart and weekly chart. Candle yesterday end and left Bullish Harami Pattern and deffinately will reverse up further Late Today. Maybe after 09.00 pm Malaysia Clock or earlier at 04.30 pm.
Until then let see this happen and Good Luck.
Allah Hu.
ps : Congratulations to those who got more than 100 pips yesterday and welcome to the club to all new members.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 12.20 pm (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4311 (My target is 1.4178. Then 1.4050)
BUY Area - 1.4351 (My target is 1.4405. Then 1.4487)
Both my Buy and Sell Area met and only sell area met the first target at 1.4250. On Sell area candle stop at 1.4173 amd rebound back this morning.
So what next :
Salam. Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4351 (My target is 1.4405. Then 1.4487)
Both my Buy and Sell Area met and only sell area met the first target at 1.4250. On Sell area candle stop at 1.4173 amd rebound back this morning.
So what next :
Salam. Allah Hu.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.20 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4501 (my target is 1.4661. Then 1.4750 Area)
SELL Area - 1.4471 (my target is 1.4250. Then 1.4090 Area)
Trading Range is Between 1.4250 to 1.4661.
1. Breaking 1.4250 candle will test 1.4050 and if success candle will drop to 1.3850 area. If fail candle will find back Mr. Pivot at 1.4491.
2. Breaking 1.4661 candle will test 1.4985. If fail candle will find Mr. Pivot again at 1.4991.
Becarefull today on all reversal candle pattern like Mr. Doji and Abandoned baby or Harami. Any big reversal signal candle will drop sharply and please be more discipline.
Until then good luck and be healthy.
Salam ....
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4471 (my target is 1.4250. Then 1.4090 Area)
Trading Range is Between 1.4250 to 1.4661.
1. Breaking 1.4250 candle will test 1.4050 and if success candle will drop to 1.3850 area. If fail candle will find back Mr. Pivot at 1.4491.
2. Breaking 1.4661 candle will test 1.4985. If fail candle will find Mr. Pivot again at 1.4991.
Becarefull today on all reversal candle pattern like Mr. Doji and Abandoned baby or Harami. Any big reversal signal candle will drop sharply and please be more discipline.
Until then good luck and be healthy.
Salam ....
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 10.50 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4513 ( MY Target is 1.4660. After that 1.4790).
SELL Area - 1.4471 (My target is 1.4300. After that is 1.4194).
Yesterday my Buy Area met at 1.4373 and met my first and second target at 1.4606 and reach as far as 1.4661. After that it rebound to find Mr. Pivot again as aspected (1.4355) after fail to break R2, but only manage to drop at 1.4451.
So what next:
Trading Range is between 1.4090 to 1.4661.
1. If Candle Break 1.4661 today, candle will deffinately test 1.4790 area and may go up furthur to test 1.4985 area.
2. If Break 1.4090 candle will test 1.4050 and may drop at 1.3850. From here it will again test this year Low at 1.3500 within Few Days.
Looks at H4 chart and seems it open on middle line of BB and open on 61.80% of Fibo, candle deffinately will test yesterday high at 1.4661. If open above this level, candle will test purpple MA area. If fail at 1.4661, then candle will perform double top and will drop sharply to find Mr. Pivot at 1.4392.
RSI 7 days is going up and stoch is going up to.
Let see what will happen and please indicate all your relevan indicator.
Until then salam.
ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU
Monday, February 23, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 08.45 am (Malaysia)
Salam....
BUY Area - 1.4373 (my Target is 1.4481. After that 1.4606)
SELL Area = 1.4333 (my Target is 1.4223. After that 1.4114. Then possibility to drop at 1.4050)
Trading Range still maintain at 1.4050 to 1.4606.
1. Breaking 1.4606 - candle will test 1.4985 in few days.
2. Breaking 1.4050 - candle will test 1.3850.
Allah Hu.
BUY Area - 1.4373 (my Target is 1.4481. After that 1.4606)
SELL Area = 1.4333 (my Target is 1.4223. After that 1.4114. Then possibility to drop at 1.4050)
Trading Range still maintain at 1.4050 to 1.4606.
1. Breaking 1.4606 - candle will test 1.4985 in few days.
2. Breaking 1.4050 - candle will test 1.3850.
Allah Hu.
Friday, February 20, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.30 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4295 (My target is 1.4090. Next - 1.3850).
BUY Area - 1.4315 (My Target is 1.4450. Next - 1.4606).
Trading Range Still Maintain At 1.4050 to 1.4606.
What Next For Today:
Initial support is at 1.4050 and if break candle will drop sharply at 1.3850. Then possiblility to drop furthur down to 1.3500 next week.
Initial Resistance is at 1.4606 and if break will go furthur up to 1.4985. After that posiblely will test 1.5372 at 2009 High.
Yesterday my Buy area met and candle easyly break my first target at 1.4350 and rebound back after reached 1.4445 to find Mr. Pivot at 1.4211.
Now look at the H4 chart attached for your refferences. Early morning at 8.00 am Malaysia Clock, candle drop furthur and is testing yesterday Low at 1.4090. If happen candle break this level, no doubt candle will drop sharply to test 1.3850. If fail again, candle will rebound back to find Mr. Pivot today at 1.4315.
Let see this happen and please becarefull and be alert on all reversal signal like Harami (Abandoned Baby), Mr. Doji, Inverted Hammer and etc. Until then Good Luck.
Salam and Allah Hu.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4231 ( My Target 1.4350. Next 1.4606)
SELL Area - 1.4191 (MY Target is 1.4050. Next 1.3850)
Yesterday both my Sell and BUY area met:
SELL area met at 1.4203 and drop at 1.4090 but fail to break 1.4050. As aspected if not broken that level, candle rebound back to find Mr. Pivot again. After that candle reach my BUY area at 1.4243 but fail to meet my target at 1.4350.
So What Next:
Trading range is between 1.4050 to 1.4606 maintain and yet Initial Support is not broken after tried three time this week. Look like candle fail and must test back 1.4350 and if success will test Initial Resistance again at 1.4606. If this 1.4600 area broken no doubt, candle will try to break 1.5000 area within a few days. If this happen that mean the drop from 1.4985 already accomplish and make a new consolidations move from 1.4090.
Let see together this happen or not. For me if 1.4050 hold after three tried the candle may test back 1.4350 again. But please dont belive me this because it is only my predictions. I've belive candle will try again to break this support next week and will try to break 2009 Low at 1.3500.
Until then good luck. Salam.
Allah Hu.
ps.. for all the gurus from other forum, please mind your own biz, because this predictions is only for my student. I dont care wether this stupid predictions is right or wrong, because many already call me and thanks me because of this stupid predictions. Very shame on you to tell me that I'm not doing good for the community. Because I'm really dont care that negetive words. Allah Hu. May Allah forgive then.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4243 - (My target is 1.4350. Next posibility to reach 1.4603)
SELL Area - 1.4203 - (My target is 1.4100. Next may drop to 1.4050).
Trading range is between 1.4050 - 1.4603.
Yesterday both BUY and SELL Area met but fail to reach my target.
1. SELL Area met at 1.4233 and stop at 1.4123 (Given 110 pips only). As I said if fail to break 1.4050, candle will rebound to find Mr. Pivot and met my BUY Area at 1.4273 after performed a doji signal. Who noticed this got more 180 pips and congratulations for those who got this opportunity. Same to my frens who used archi indicator and gain double profit... wow archi methode is marvelous and already got 140% in 5 trading days. I've been using it for scalping and harvesting pips in a busket every hours. But you have to know the trends and confirm it at M30/M5 charts before use it - becarefull.
2. BUY area met at 1.4273 and close at 1.4310 (my target is 1.4350 - different 40 pips only). But who ever used Archi indi got double profit.
So what next - my predictions today:
Remember that this is only my predictions and only use for my student to get at least guarenteed 60 pips. I am not responsibility for this predictions because it is use with a relevan indicators. If you use it for your trading tips and met your target, I wish you congratulations. But if you fail it your problems not me, because you are not my student.
Ok let see H4 chart at this moment:
At this very moment at 1.10 pm Malaysia clock all candle are below middle band of BB. Candle is trying to break Mr. Pivot at 1.4223. The Market is rangging and RSI7 is below 50% and looks like the pivot will be penetrate easyly. If fail candle will up back to find middle band. I'm not enter a positions right now because it is not confirm yet.
BB is already in flat conditions - better use archi methode to scalp that mean use M5 chart to scalp and use this sign on stoch and RSI.
1. Low To Buy
2. High To Sell
Take 10 - 30 pips a trade and dont wait for more pips.
On this H4 charts - the trend is still in Bearish configurations but still in consilidations from 1.4123 movement yesterday. If break 1.4050 candle will drop to test 1.3850. If this happen no doubt candle will test this year Low at 1.3500 area in few days. If 1.4050 not broken the candle will when back to find Mr. Pivot to test 1.4300 area or further up to test 1.4603.
Let see this happen today and please use the relevan indicator before you enter your positions.
Be a discipline trader not speculative trader. Remember this set your target 60 - 100 pips a day. Don't wait hundreds of pip, unless you sit infront of the computer 24 hours a day... i'm not doing that, because we have many thing to do beside trading FX.
Until then Good Luck and Allah Hu.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 01.00 pm (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4233 ( My target is 1.4051. Further Fall then to 1.3900 area if break and open below 1.4051 on H4 chart)
BUY Area - 1.4273 ( My target is 1.4350 area)
MY PREDICTIONS ALERT FOR TODAY: TODAY OR THIS WEEK WILL BE CRITICAL TRADE WETHER CANDLE WILL TEST 23 YEAR OLD LOW AT 1.3500 OR WILL REBOUND BACK TO TEST 1.4985 TO TEST THIS YEAR HIGH AT 1.5372 RESISTANCE.
Trading range is between 1.4051 - 1.4603. The price is still in a consolidations movement from downtrend move from 1.4985 resistance on 9th. February 2009. If this consolidations continue and break 1.4051, candle may test 1.3850 area and from here it may test this year Low at 1.3500 area in few days. If fail candle will test back 1.4600 area.
Look at H4 chart - seem like the candle open below middle band and drop sharply to broke Mr. Pivot at 1.4253. Candle is testing the channel line and if break will test 1.4150 and then will test 1.4050 area.
Let see this happen and please don't forget your discipline and please trade on what you see. The Major Impact is at 5.00 pm and 9.00 pm Malaysia Clock. The major impact will continues until 3.00 am. Please be alert on all news and remember to set your target and if achive please stop because more votality will happen today.
Until then good luck and salam.
ALLAH HU.
News to follow:
Story By:
Brewer Investment Group
The U.S. Dollar finished the week close to unchanged against most majors as speculators remained on the sidelines while waiting for more concrete details regarding the Obama Administration’s banking rescue plan. The Dollar was looking weaker at the start of the week as speculators anticipated that the combination of financial stimulus and banking rescue plans would help lead the U.S. out of a recession more quickly and increase demand for higher yielding assets.
Monday, February 16, 2009
GBP/USD Pair Today
SELL Area - 1.4401 (my target is 1.4095. After that 1.3914).
BUY Area - 1.4441 (my target is 1.4600. After that is 1.4750).
TIP FOR TODAY : Gbp - Chartwise, gbp is going to test old low. Sell on rally is the only choice.
Salam and Hi...
Last Friday my Buy Area met at 1.4297 and met my first target at 1.4380. Then break my second target at 1.4550 before stop at 1.4603 - some of you really enjoyed 300 pips. After that the candle drop back to find Mr. Pivot again, because it fail to open above R2 at 1.4557, but only manage to close at 1.4350 (MIG Chart) supposed to reach Mr. pivot at 1.4278. I wish the candle will met at 1.4278 on monday - looks like candle close Low and may performed a gap. As long as 1.4051 hold (not broken) the candle will try to test 1.5000 level (lates only reached at 1.4986 on 9th. February 2009) But if candle manage to break 1.4051 today or within few days, candle deffinately will test the 23 year Low at 1.3500 sooner or later. BOE already plan to change thier currency rate. Let wait for my today predictions after new candle has perform at 8.00 am (Malaysia Clock).
The trading range is still between 1.4051 - 1.5000 - I will update my predictions at 11 am (malaysia clock) or later. Have to do some personal works early in the morning.
Until then Salam from me !!!
Allah Hu.
TIPS FROM VAHID - weboma :
Tip of the day:
Find the Reason of Your Failure!
Most of you have been practicing and working so hard to learn forex. I am sure most of you are smart and intelligent people who have already achieved a lot of things in their lives. But when it comes to forex trading you may be surprised that why you can not make it work.
Forex is really different from all other things you may have done so far. Really really different! For example in most other jobs, the more harder you work and the more hours you spend you get the better result in a shorter time. When you have a programming project, if you spend 10 hours a day you will finish it much sooner than when you spend only 5 hours a day. This is what we know and have in our mind and when we start forex trading we think that the more we sit at the computer and the more trades we do, the better result we will have. But this is not true. Forex is really different!
In forex you have to wait for the market to show you a signal. There is nothing you can do when there is no signal. You just have to wait. Forex needs a lot of patience. For those who are hard working people, forex can be a pain because they can not sit at the computer and watch the market and do nothing. When they sit and wait for one or two hours and get bored and tired, their mind and subconscious takes the control and make them think that there is a signal whereas there is no good signal.
If you have been working very hard to learn forex and you have not been able to learn it yet, just stop trading, reading and practicing for a while and analyze your actions and trades. Try to think and find the reason of your failure. Let me tell you that in most cases the system that you use is not the reason. Most of you have good systems that the others are making money with them. The reason is something else. The reason is in you and your behavior and mind. You are the only one who can solve this problem. Just sit and think and analyze. There is something that have to be found out.
BUY Area - 1.4441 (my target is 1.4600. After that is 1.4750).
TIP FOR TODAY : Gbp - Chartwise, gbp is going to test old low. Sell on rally is the only choice.
Salam and Hi...
Last Friday my Buy Area met at 1.4297 and met my first target at 1.4380. Then break my second target at 1.4550 before stop at 1.4603 - some of you really enjoyed 300 pips. After that the candle drop back to find Mr. Pivot again, because it fail to open above R2 at 1.4557, but only manage to close at 1.4350 (MIG Chart) supposed to reach Mr. pivot at 1.4278. I wish the candle will met at 1.4278 on monday - looks like candle close Low and may performed a gap. As long as 1.4051 hold (not broken) the candle will try to test 1.5000 level (lates only reached at 1.4986 on 9th. February 2009) But if candle manage to break 1.4051 today or within few days, candle deffinately will test the 23 year Low at 1.3500 sooner or later. BOE already plan to change thier currency rate. Let wait for my today predictions after new candle has perform at 8.00 am (Malaysia Clock).
The trading range is still between 1.4051 - 1.5000 - I will update my predictions at 11 am (malaysia clock) or later. Have to do some personal works early in the morning.
Until then Salam from me !!!
Allah Hu.
TIPS FROM VAHID - weboma :
Tip of the day:
Find the Reason of Your Failure!
Most of you have been practicing and working so hard to learn forex. I am sure most of you are smart and intelligent people who have already achieved a lot of things in their lives. But when it comes to forex trading you may be surprised that why you can not make it work.
Forex is really different from all other things you may have done so far. Really really different! For example in most other jobs, the more harder you work and the more hours you spend you get the better result in a shorter time. When you have a programming project, if you spend 10 hours a day you will finish it much sooner than when you spend only 5 hours a day. This is what we know and have in our mind and when we start forex trading we think that the more we sit at the computer and the more trades we do, the better result we will have. But this is not true. Forex is really different!
In forex you have to wait for the market to show you a signal. There is nothing you can do when there is no signal. You just have to wait. Forex needs a lot of patience. For those who are hard working people, forex can be a pain because they can not sit at the computer and watch the market and do nothing. When they sit and wait for one or two hours and get bored and tired, their mind and subconscious takes the control and make them think that there is a signal whereas there is no good signal.
If you have been working very hard to learn forex and you have not been able to learn it yet, just stop trading, reading and practicing for a while and analyze your actions and trades. Try to think and find the reason of your failure. Let me tell you that in most cases the system that you use is not the reason. Most of you have good systems that the others are making money with them. The reason is something else. The reason is in you and your behavior and mind. You are the only one who can solve this problem. Just sit and think and analyze. There is something that have to be found out.
Friday, February 13, 2009
GBP/USD @ (Malaysia) My Predictions:
BUY Area - 1.4297 (My target is 1.4380. Break 1.4400 candle possiblely will test 1.4550. But if fail candle will find Mr. Pivot at 1.4278. After that may drop sharply to 1.4135)
SELL Area - 1.4257 (My Target is 1.4135. Possiblely may drop to 1.4050 and if break this level, candle may drop further down to test 1.3500. But if it fail candle will find Mr. pivot again at 1.4278).
My SELL Area at 1.4391 met and close more than 300 pips. Yesterday I've heard Mr. Omar from JB got 300 pips and Mr. Ibrahim from Penang got more $800.Some of you manage to get more 200 pips and so do Kampar Group. Congratulations to all of you and please remember that you got the winning positions because of the discipline you done to get those pips. Without discipline you will never gain such a lot profit, even the target of 60 pips that I've recommended to you before.
As expected on H4 - candle break the lower channel line and open below the channel line and break 1.4135 area. ( see yesterday predictions on 12 th. February 2009)Fail to reach the 1.4050 target, candle when back to break 1.4200 area but fail to break 1.4300 area. From here candle when up and down the M5 BB, a chance for some of you to learn scalping Methode using m5 chart and RSI.
Look at H4 chart:
The Candle try to penetrate MA Red Colour and to test 1.4380 level and candle may go further up to test 1.4450 at MA White colour. If fail Candle will definately drop back to find Mr. Pivot at 1.4278. From here if candle break the Pivot may drop sharply to test yesterday Low at 1.4135. From here candle possiblely may test 1.4050 level.
Let see this happen and be more discipline and be alert on all reversal signal. Until then Good Luck To You.
ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 06.20 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area : 1.4391 (My target is 1.4300. Possiblely can drop to 1.4050 area).
BUY Area : 1.4431 (My target is 1.4550 and possiblely can move further up to 1.4650 area).
Yesterday Candle met my SELL area and met my target at 1.4375 and close at 1.4315. Congratulations who took the opportunity and gain more 200 pips. Should shut the mouth of the big mouth from the fx forum. Keep it up guy and show them you really understand the discipline. I'VE BELIVE IN YOU !!!
Now just read the H4 chart - looks like the candle is trying to break the Channel Line. If broken and new candle open below the channel line, more drop will be today. But if candle fail and open above the channel line, it may rebound to find Middle band back. From here if it fail again, the candle may drop to test 1.4300 area.
Also let see the MA 7 Red Colour - happen that the candle fail to penetrate and drop again. The RSI is coming up from over bought, but the ATR is dropping. This make the market right now in Rangging Mood ( at 6.53 am).
So let see this happen and please be aware of the Big Impact today. Try not to trade on Rangging Market or you will fail. Just do the Math system and you have no choice unless you are more discipline to get your target. Belive me you have no choice unless you have other systems that better than Math Systems.
Set your target and no speculations. Until then good luck and happy trading.
To Malaysian:
Tips ini bukan untuk awak, kecuali kepada pelajar saya dan bakal pelajar saya. Ingat Forex bukan tempat untuk anda mencuba-cuba, jika mahu cuba sila lakukan di Demo akaun dengan mengikuti SELL dan BUY area saya. Penggunaan SELL/BUY area ini adalah berdasarkan system traffic light saya. Jika anda berminat mahu belajar cara saya, sila booking tempat anda dan jangan kecewa kalau saya gagal buatkan awak tidak puashati. Saya tak minta pun awak ikuti cara saya dan memaksa anda belajar cara saya. Semua ilmu ini saya dapat dari berguru dengan 8 orang guru Forex selama 3 tahun saya belajar. Jika ada indicator seperti MA, ATR, BB, Support/Resistance dan sebagainya saya gunakan dengan combinations yang guru saya ajarkan sebelumnya, termasuk setiap hari predictions saya itu sudah menjadi hak saya. Sebab saya membayar kepada mereka untuk mendapatkan teknik-teknik tersebut. Saya ulangi bukan free. Bayaran termahal ialah cara-cara membuat predictions dengan tepat dan profesional.
Kepada Guru-Guru forex seperti Jebatfx dan sebagainya yang tersangatlah cemburu dan mencaci dan merendahkan kebolehan saya ini - dengar sini. Semua Ilmu dan pengetahuan mengenai rahsia forex yang saya dapat adalah dari pembelajaran saya dan pembacaan saya. Semua ini adalah Anugerah Allah SWT jua, kerana saya memohon (berdoa) kepada Allah setiap kali saya sembahyang. Kerana dialah tempat saya memohon dan meminta-minta. (Takan nak minta dengan Syaitan plak - Nauzubillah Hi Min Zaalik - kalau kamu saya tak tahu lah - minta jangan sekali2 menyegutukan Allah).
Akhir kata Wasalam.
ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU...
TIADA TUHAN YANG KU SEBUT MELAINKAN KAU YA ALLAH.
SESUNGGUHNYA SYAITAN DAN IBLIS TU ADALAH KAWAN ORANG YANG CEMBURU DENGAN KEJAYAAN KU. KEPADA MU LAH AKU BERSERAH PEMBALASANNYA YA ALLAH AGAR KAU DAPAT MENYEDARKANNYA MEREKA SEBELUM MEREKA MATI YA ALLAH. AMIN YA RABBUL
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ 11.50 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4577 (my target is 1.4375. Possiblely may drop to 1.4250 area then 1.4196)
Yesterday my Sell Area met at 1.4825 and reach my First Target at 1.4702. Then candle drop slowly but fail to reach my second target at 1.4350 and rebound at 1.4454. Looks like the consolidations movement from 1.4050 (double bottom) ended at 1.4983 and fail to break 1.5050 and this year high at 1.5372.
Trading range still from 1.4050 to 1.5000. If candle break 1.4050 today the market will again test 2009 Low at 1.3500. But if this 23 years Low still hold, candle may test and rebound back to test 1.5000 area.
BUY Area - 1.4637 (my target is 1.4637 area and may go further up to 1.5050 area)
Look at the H4 chart - if candle break and open below that MA line, candle may test again 1.4200 area and again will test this year low at 1.3500 area. But if fail to do so, candle may rebound back to find middle band of BB.
Let see this happen and dont forget your discipline. Trade on what you see only not what you think. I'm in Lumut today and all the time not online today.
Good Luck.
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4865 (my target is 1.4985. Can possiblely break 1.5200 area or furthur)
SELL Area - 1.4825 (my target is at 1.4702. After that 1.4350 area)
Salam....
Congratulations to all my student and thanks who send all the predictions. Some of you already confident and gain more 200 pips yesterday. All our target met handsomely make some forex gurus in Malaysia envi for this blog achivement. Keep your good job. I've feel that you already understand how the market move and how to use the relevan indicator. Some of you already expert by using more signal and indicator itself and some of you still trying to find the momentum. It not the 60 pips you've got. but more than that. But remember this - it not hundreds of pips is our target, but what is your target. 60 pips or 100 pips for shure. If the market is going for 300 pips, just take 60 pips and close all positions. That is for shure - there is a lot of thing we can do other's than forex. Get's your target and get your daily income to achive your own goal.
LOOK At The H4 Chart @ 10.15 am (Malaysia Clock):
There are double doji Pattern before and made a good reversal signal and candle try to drop to middle line BB at 1.4702. At this moment candle try to penetrate the middle line of the channel line. If candle fail to break this level, candle will test back yesterday high at 1.4985. If this happen candle will go up furthur to test 1.5200 level or break this year high at 1.5372. Fail to do so, candle may find Mr. Pivot again and may drop furthur to 1.4702.
But if candle break the 1.4702 and open below middle line area, it may drop sharply to 1.4350 area. This consolidations move may continues from yesterday Bullish move. Please be alert on all reversing signal and confirm the indicator and all the discipline of M30/M5 chart. Trade on what you see and not on what you think.
Remember this trading range is still from 1.4050 to 1.5000. If break the 1.5000 the candle will test this year high at 1.5372 area. But fail to break it, candle will drop and find Mr. pivot and test 1.4300 area in few days.
Allah Hu (Ada yang cemburu saya guna ayat ini - dia kata saya salah guna ayat Allah Hu) - terserahlah kepadanya.
at 12.30 pm (Malaysia):
H4 chart already performed bigger flag - see the forex analysis given to you before. If fail to penetrate BB middle band - the candle will rebound to find upper band of BB. If happen it break the candle will drop back to test 1.4702 area or furthur.
Good Luck.
Monday, February 9, 2009
GBP/USD Pair @ (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4.... ( my target 1.4877 and possiblely may go up further to 1.5050 area).
SELL Area - 1.4.... ( my target is 1.4595 and after that 1.4427 area)
Salam... Good Morning Malaysia and to those people in Asia.
ok for today why dont you put yourself the BUY and SELL area to show that you already understands what you learn from me before. Put it on my comments here, because many told me that I simply put the BUY/SELL area like play a lotto or 4 D gambling site or just a lucky one. Hehehe... please dont shy ok. Proof it to them that you already knew the secret or what so ever to shut thier mouth. Membebel aje kat forum... cemburulah tu... kecik2 tak nak mampus, dah besar tak mahu dengar nasihat orang ... sabar, sabar, itu kenyataan dari web boma... baca tau.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4.... ( my target is 1.4595 and after that 1.4427 area)
Salam... Good Morning Malaysia and to those people in Asia.
ok for today why dont you put yourself the BUY and SELL area to show that you already understands what you learn from me before. Put it on my comments here, because many told me that I simply put the BUY/SELL area like play a lotto or 4 D gambling site or just a lucky one. Hehehe... please dont shy ok. Proof it to them that you already knew the secret or what so ever to shut thier mouth. Membebel aje kat forum... cemburulah tu... kecik2 tak nak mampus, dah besar tak mahu dengar nasihat orang ... sabar, sabar, itu kenyataan dari web boma... baca tau.
Allah Hu.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
-
Salam ... BISMILLAH HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM Trading Range is between 1.6100 to 1.6500 area. 1. BUY Area : 1.6293 T1 : 1.632...
