GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4243 (My Target : 1.4302. Next : 1.4336 Next : 1.4411)

SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)

Salam and Hi.........

Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Allah Hu

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4339 (First Target : 1.4250 Next : 1.4200 Next : 1.4126)

BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)

Salam and Hi.........

Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Allah Hu

Why USD On A Tear ?

Why is the U.S. Dollar on a Tear?
Last updated 3/27/2009 9:28 AM EST (GMT -5)

Tags: u.s. dollar, global reserve currency

Kathy Lien
Director of Currency Research, GFTlastchangevolumeLast Updated: 10 min ago
With the rally in the stock market and recent economic data invigorating hope for a U.S. recovery, traders needed a good reason to continue selling dollars. The big story this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the a global reserve currency but reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit has provided some relief. A confluence of factors have driven the U.S. dollar higher today. U.S. economic data was mixed which means that it did not contribute the rally. According to the latest reports, personal spending has slowed, personal income dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year while inflation ticked modestly higher.

There are 5 different reasons why the dollar has staged a sharp rally this morning.

1) Comments from German Finance Minister

Most importantly, the rally in the U.S. dollar began when the German Finance minister issued a critical warning about the negative consequences that fiscal irresponsibility in Europe could have on the Euro. Although the market chose to react to his comment, it was nothing groundbreaking. All countries with a growing budget deficit will struggle to make ends meet and there is no question that the lagging monetary policies of the Eurozone will put a greater strain on the region.

2) ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rate

Secondly, at a time when many countries have reported stronger inflation pressures, incoming data from Germany suggests that inflation in the Eurozone's largest country is still slowing. Weaker economic data and softer inflation pressures could push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to 1.00 percent next week.

3) Global Reserve Currency Not a Topic at G20

Investors are also relieved that a global reserve currency to replace the dollar would not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit according to senior Japanese and Russian officials.

4) Japanese Repatriation

The Japanese are buying Yen and selling all of the other major currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end and finally,

5) U.S. Equity Futures Down

U.S. equity futures are down suggesting that the improvement in risk appetite witnessed yesterday is fading.

Dollar To Be Replaced !!!

UN and PBOC Call For Dollar To Be Replaced By Single World Currency
by Larry Edelson on March 26, 2009

It’s starting, just like I predicted it would over 10 years ago. And it’s on time. By 2011 — which I have pointed out several times, is what I call a ‘panic cycle’ year in the currency markets — the dollar should be gone as a reserve currency.



See articles below, both the U.N. and the PBOC are now calling for the dollar to be replaced. — Larry

U.N. Will Recommend that the World Should Ditch the Dollar

By Jeremy Gaunt, Special to Salem-News.com



UN Currency specialist Avinash Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.



(LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) ) — A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.



Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.



Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.



“It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency,” he said.



Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value — though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.



Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel’s recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.



“Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar’s slide between 2002 and mid-2008,” CMC Markets said in a note.



Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.



It has significantly reduced the dollar’s share in its own reserves in recent years.



Good Time



Persaud said that the United States was concerned that holding the reserve currency made it impossible to run policy, while the rest of world was also unhappy with the generally declining dollar.



“There is a moment that can be grasped for change,” he said.



“Today the Americans complain that when the world wants to save, it means a deficit. A shared (reserve) would reduce the possibility of global imbalances.”



Persaud said the panel had been looking at using something like an expanded Special Drawing Right, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organizations.



The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent’s economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and indeed against those inside the basket.



Persaud said there were two main reasons why policymakers might consider such a move, one being the current desire for a change from the dollar.



The other reason, he said, was the success of the euro, which incorporated a number of currencies but roughly speaking held on to the stability of the old German deutschemark compared with, say, the Greek drachma.



Persaud has long argued that the dollar would give way to the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency within decades.



A shared reserve currency might negate this move, he said, but he believed that China would still like to take on the role.



Special thanks to Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent, for this report. (editing by Patrick Graham)

GBP/USD

Sterling:

Confidence in the economy will remain very weak in the short term with expectations of a further deterioration and deep recession. The near-term Sterling trends will also be influenced strongly by trends in risk appetite with a particular focus on the UK banking sector. The UK currency will come under further pressure if confidence in the sector continues to deteriorate while any reassurance over the banks could trigger a sharp corrective rally for the UK currency. In this environment, trading volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels with good buying support on retreats towards 1.35. The Euro looks to offer little short-term value above the 0.95 level against Sterling.


Sterling remained under pressure on Friday and weakened to a fresh 23-year low near 1.35 against the dollar. Sterling also dipped to three-week lows around 0.9470 against the Euro following the UK data. Overall confidence in the economy will remain extremely weak in the short term, especially with budget fears increasing

There will still be some scope for a correction from over-sold conditions, especially after a weekly decline against the dollar of close to 8% and Sterling recovered back to near 1.38 later in US trading. Given the lack of confidence, rallies quickly attract selling pressure and Sterling retreated again towards 23-year lows on Monday with a test of support below the 1.36 level before a rebound to above 1.37 as UK banking shares rallied.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area : 1.4485(First Target : 1.4400. Second : 1.4350 Third : 1.4292)

BUY Area : 1.4527(First Target : 1.4606)

Salam and Hi....

Yesterday Sell area met at 1.4577 and met my second target at 1.4467 and stop at 1.4422.

So price at 1.4350 still hold and candle bounce back this morning to test Mr. Pivot at 1.4505. As long as 1.4350 not broken candle possible to test 1.4779.

Trading Range is between 1.4350 to 1.4779 as 1.4779 will be initial resistance.

Allah Hu

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4577 (First Target : 1.4514 Next : 1.4467 Next : 1.4350)

BUY Area - 1.4629 (First Target : 1.4729 Next : 1.4850)

Salam and Hi,

Yesterday the Sell area met at 1.4656 and easily break my target at 1.4575 and stop at 1.4514 - fail to reach my second target at 1.4452. From here candle rebound back at 1.4600 area.

At this moment candle in consolidations mood. Trading Range is between 1.4394 to 1.4779 area. As long as 1.4394 hold and not broken, candle will test again 1.4850 and if success candle may test 1.5000 area within few days.

Let see this happen and happy trading.


Allah Hu

EU presidency: US stimulus is 'the road to hell'

BRUSSELS (AP) -- The head of the European Union slammed President Barack Obama's plan to spend nearly $2 trillion to push the U.S. economy out of recession as "the road to hell" that EU governments must avoid.


The blunt comments by Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek to the European Parliament on Wednesday highlighted simmering European differences with Washington ahead of a key summit next week on fixing the world economy.

It was the strongest pushback yet from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.

Shocked by the outburst, other European politicians went into damage control mode, with some reproaching the Czech leader for his language and others reaffirming their good diplomatic ties with the United States. The leaders of EU's major nations -- France, Britain and Germany, among others -- largely ignored Topolanek and his remarks.

Obama pays his first official visit to Europe next week, aiming to thrash out reforms to the global financial system with the Group of 20 nations and call on NATO allies to commit more troops to the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

Europeans leaders hope the new U.S. administration will agree with them on tightening oversight over the global financial system -- which they see as crucial to fixing the global economy.

Instead, the United States is focusing its efforts on economic stimulus and plans to spend heavily to try and lift itself out of recession with a $787 billion plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.

To encourage banks to lend again, the U.S. government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.

Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal will put the ailing U.S. economy back on its feet. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."

But Topolanek took aim at Washington's deficit spending.

"All of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the road to hell," Topolanek said. "We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way."

"Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the liquidity of the global financial market," Topolanek said.

Topolanek spoke the day after he was ousted by his own parliament. The Czech Republic currently holds the six-month rotating EU presidency but its leadership is in question, with Topolanek hanging on to a caretaker government at home after losing a "no confidence" Tuesday.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said he did not expect the Czech poltical turmoil to affect Obama's upcoming trip to Prague because the president was traveling to attend an EU event.

Analyst Nicolas Veron, a research fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said Topolanek's view is not widely shared by EU leaders.

"I don't think the damage can be as large as the very strong wording of this would lead one to think," he said. "Many people have doubts about the U.S. plan but what he said is much stronger."

Veron said European leaders worry that the U.S. plan may not work or could cost taxpayers heavily -- but he did not doubt the U.S.' "fiscal robustness" or that it still had extra room to maneuver to stoke economic growth.

Martin Schulz, leader of the Socialist group in the European parliament, immediately chided Topolanek, saying his comments were "not the level on which the EU ought to be operating with the United States."

"You have not understood what the task of the EU presidency is," he told the Czech premier.

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also said it was "not helpful ... to try to suggest that Americans and Europeans are coming with very different approaches to the crisis."

"On the contrary, what we are seeing is increased convergence," he told the parliament.

But Europe's resistance to the U.S. call for new stimulus measures is starting to weaken despite Germany's fierce opposition to any new spending program this year.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday he is prepared to support the economy with a new spending package. EU officials say they can't rule anything out -- even an EU-wide stimulus that could help nations like Ireland and Spain, which can't afford any extra stimulus.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has also supported U.S. calls to ramp up fiscal stimulus -- government spending and tax cuts -- although the Bank of England has warned that Britain's swelling public deficit may make it unable to afford new spending.

Associated Press writers Raf Casert in Strasbourg, France, Jane Wardell in London and Desmond Butler in Washington contributed to this report.

INILAH DIA KEMUSNAHAN ECONOMI CAPITALIST -----

ALLAH HU

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4656 (First Target : 1.4575. Second Target : 1.4452).

BUY Area - 1.4677 (First Target : 1.4779. Second Target : 1.4850).

Salam and Hi........

Yesterday as aspected my buy area met and achived my second target at 1.4750 and close at 1.4779. From there candle drop back to 1.4636 and at this moment still in consolidations move from that drop. Looks like market is still testing 1.4850 today. Anyway fail to do so, candle may drop back to find 1.4350. From here maybe candle will test yesterday high at 1.4779. Good Luck.

Trading Range is between 1.4350 - 1.4850.

Breaking 1.4850 candle may test 1.5000 area.

Salam and Allah Hu.

GBP/USD @ 10.30 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4571 (My Target is 1.4661. Next is 1,4750.Possible to test 1.4850)

SELL Area - 1.4531 (My Target is 1,4453)

Salam and Hi,

Yesterday as aspected candle break 1.4661 and stop at 1.4692. At this moments candle is on consolidations from 1.4692. Candle may test 1.4750 and if success, candle possible to test 1.4850. From here candle may test 1.4850 or 1.5000 area within few days.

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4493 (First Target: 1.4584. Second Target :1.4661 Third : 1.4733)

Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4661. Break 1.4661 candle will test 1.4985. But if fail candle may drop back to test 1.4473.

SELL Area - 1.4450 (First Target : 1.3841)

Salam and Hi....

Candle is still on consolidations uptrend move from last week. If fail to break and drop to 1.4473, candle is possible to test 1.4661 and possible to test 1.4985. Looks like Initial Support already performed at 1.3654, fail to test 1.3500 - major support for GBP/USD in 23 years old. If this happen no doubt candle will test 1.5372 area within a few days. Let see this happen and please be alert on all reversal pattern of candlestick.

Allah Hu.

TIPs From Uncommon Wisdom

Dollar Begins Decline
by Larry Edelson on March 19, 2009

The much anticipated decline of the US dollar appears to have started with yesterday’s announcement that the Federal Reserve will start buying up to $300 billion of Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The action is expected to expand the central bank’s balance sheet by $1.15 trillion. The excess supply of dollars is threatening investors with fears of an inflationary spiral. The Dollar Index reflected this as it fell 2.7%, the largest one day drop since 1971.

The dollar started on a declining trend in 2005 amid concerns for the United States’ expanding current account deficit. However, this trend was largely reversed last year as investors flocked to risk free U.S. Treasury Bills amid panic in global financial markets, raising demand. Analysts also agree much of the demand for the dollar was made up of investors unwinding their positions, and was not actual sustainable demand.

My Opinion: These actions emphasize the severity of the economic crisis in the U.S. While the recession has taken its toll on most economies, central banks have largely avoided printing money at the pace the Fed has. Eventual devaluation isn’t a hypothesis but rather a proven fact — printing money leads to inflation, which erodes the value of the currency in question. One needn’t look further than Zimbabwe to see this in action.

As more money is printed, there is more currency chasing the same amount of goods. Production isn’t increasing in the United States and all this excess capital will be representative of the same volume of production. If for example there was $100 in an economy which produced 10 equal products, each product would be valued at $10. If the central bank printed an extra $50 and let it circulate without any matching increase in production, $150 would be representative of the same 10 products, thus pricing them at $15 each, resulting in 50% inflation.

As inflationary pressure mounts, I expect more investors to dump dollars in favor of assets that offer a better inflationary hedge, like gold.

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4427 ( First target - 1.4606).

SELL Area - 1.4395 ( First target - 1.4234. Next - 1.4155)

Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4606.

Salam. Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 04.30 am (Malaysia)

Salam and Hi....

Huhuhu yesterday both my sell and buy area met the target. Please reffer back yesterday predictions. I've heard some of them got more 500 pips up and down. Candle at M30 Chart at 04.30 am (Malaysia) already performed Abandoned baby - might give another at least 60 pips. Let see this happen pal. I want to sleep now after Morning Prayer and let's wait my next predictions after 12.00 noon today. Have to get some rest after chating long hour with Mr. Ziga from Slovenia. Until then good morning to all my frenssssssssssss. Allah Hu.

09.30 am (malaysia):

Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4606. Look like the drop from 1.4985 already accomplised and maybe candle already found the initial support to test the initial resistance at 1.4985 - I hope so and let us see this happen or not:

BUY Area - 1.4173 (My target is 1.4350. Next is 1.4481. Possiblelly will test 1.4606 area)

SELL Area - 1.4133 (My target is 1.3932. Next 1.3841 area)

Allah Hu.

ps : have to continued my sleeping time - I hope so if no hp call. Salam.

GBP/USD Pair @ 01.00 pm (Malaysia)

Salam and Hi,

Sorry for my late predictions. Today let see the Daily chart and I already found a doji like a dragon fly. That is a very good reverse signal. Furthur more new candle open below middle of BB - that mean at this moment candle may drop down and it mean High To Sell. Please refer all the discipline before you enter your positions.

My sell target today is 1.3926 and possiblely may drop to 1.3850. If break this level candle may drop to 1.3654. Please set your target at least 60 pips today. If you want more please use Trailing Stop to protect your profit. People who set target will gain profit and it is confirm. 60 pips a day x 10 day x $10 = $6000 and it is confirm solid profit. Think about this and dont wait hundred of pips - you will regret later.

Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231. Break 1.4231 candle may test 1.4305. Let see this happen.

ALLAH HU.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

Trading Range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231.

1. BUY Area 1.4101 (MY target is 1.4231. Next is 1.4303. Possiblely may go further up to 1.4600 area).

2. SELL Area 1.4061 (my target is 1.3934. Next is 1.3705).

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 09.50 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.3991 (Mt Target is 1.4090. Next 1.4151)

SELL Area - 1.3947 (Mr Target is 1.3870. Next 1.3763).

Happy Week End To All My Frens - no predictions today !!!

I rest at home at this moment and maybe tomorrow will be at Bagan Lalang with Dr. Harveen.

Tip From Market Oracle:

GBP rallied to hold the 1.3800 handle after scoring highs at 1.3841 suggesting that the low-volume dip to the 1.3550 area overnight was a bear-trap. Further upside is likely if the rate can score the 1.3900 handle mid-week as the rate is overdue for a short-squeeze in my view.

Rate two-way and recovers after a marginal new low into support overnight. 23 year lows in sight but the rate is attracting bids. Reversal off weekly lows a positive technical but the volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group. Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to rebound hard to wash-out the shorts again. After yesterday’s action I think both sides will take a break. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with long-term support at 1.3500 area now in play. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Short squeeze back on the board I think.

GBP/USD Pair @ 08.15 am (Malaysia)

Trading range is between 1.3645 to 1.4305:

BUY Area - 1.3887 (My target is 1.3985. Next target is 1.4090)

SELL Area - 1.3845 (MY target is 1.3780. Next target is 1.3645)

Salam and Hi.....

Yesterday both my Sell and Buy area met. Sell area fail to meet my first target at 1.3653, stop at 1.3698 and rebound to find Mr. Pivot again. My BUY area at 1.3827 met and also met my first target at 1.3955 and stop at 1.3982. After that the price drop back and stop at 1.3908.

So what Next for today :

Looks at H4 chart - there already performed Abandoned Baby pattern. No doubt candle will drop to find Mr. Pivot.

RSI7 is going down so do ATR is already down. Its Bearish at this moment 08.45 am Malaysia. Candle is already back in from outside UL BB.

Good Luck.

ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU

TIP from me at 03.10 pm (Malaysia):

salam.... doa umat Islam pada hari jumaat di makbulkan Allah - insyaAllah. Kalau tak pecah 1.4090 petang ini candle akan test 1.3645 hari ini - insyaAllah malam. Kalau gagal test di bawah dia rebound balik cari Mr. Pivot.

GBP/USD Pair @ 06.45 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.3827 (My target is 1.3955. Second target is 1.4090)

As long as 1.3955 not broken, candle may drop back to test 1.3600 area. If break 1.3955, candle will test 1.4090.

SELL Area - 1.3787 (My target is 1.3653)

Trading Range is between 1.3600 - 1.4305.

Salam and Allah Hu.

ps... busy today because may daughter iqin got her SPM results today. Available after 2.00 pm.

GBP/USD Pair @ 01.15 pm (Malaysia)

SELL Area - Free Fall Today - please use your relevan indicator that mean High To sell Low To Buy. My target is 1.3500 area.

Initial resistance is at 1.4305. As long 1.3950 not broken candle may drop to 1.3600 area and the major support to test is 1.3500.

That mean today is a Bearish day. Let see this happen and please use all the relevan indicator and be more discipline. Good Luck.

Allah Hu.... Allah Hu... Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.3883 ( My target is 1.3700. Possiblely to test 1.3500 area)

BUY Area - 1.3923 ( My target is 1.4065. After that 1.4305)

Salam and Hi......

Trading Range is between 1.3500 to 1.4305.

1. SELL Area - Break 1.3700 candle will test 1.3600 and if success candle will test 2009 Low at 1.3500. This will happen as long as 1.3950 area not broken.

2. BUY Area - Break 1.4305 candle will test 1.4606. This only will happen if 1.3950 area broken.

ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU...

ps : this predictions is only for the use of my student and relevan to some indicator such like RSI, Stoch, MA, BB on H4 chart. I'm not responsible to any results you get by using my predictions.For some Forex gurus who been criticise my predictions thanks to you. This is my technic to teach people - and I just dont care wether this predictions is good or not. Because what I knew this guaranteed at least 60 pips a day make good result for somebody name Mr Syarbainy from Malacca who manage got 380 pips on yesterday predictions. Hehehe... my way is my way not yours.

kepada yang cemburu dengan saya seperti Haji Azmi dari Taman U, Johor ingat tuan Haji Azmi @ gedik @ Jakun - Fitnah yang tuan lemparkan kepada saya mengenai Farflex Commerce tidak akan saya maafkan. Kecuali anda memohon maaf secara terbuka di forum itu dan menyesal memfitnah saya. Kalau tidak Tuan Haji tanggunglah dosa fitnah itu dan saya tidak akan pedulikannya lagi.

Salam.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)

1. SELL Area - 1.4117 (my target is 1.3950. May drop further to 1.3850).

2. BUY Area - 1.4157 (my target is 1.4236.Possibility to test 1.4383).

Salam and Hi.....

Trading Range is between 1.3950 to 1.4383:

1. Break 1.3950 candle will drop to test 1.3850.

2. Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4606 area.

Allah Hu.

Euro in Freefall as European Monetary Union Faces Collapse

Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being exposed for all of its structural weaknesses.

The euro is managed with a common monetary policy. But a fractured fiscal and political structure has left it without a full toolbox to fight hard times. And this chink in the armor is threatening to make the euro's life-span short.

The U.S., China, the UK, Japan, and Australia have made aggressive, downward adjustments in interest rates. Some have boosted their money supply to fight the economic crisis and have formulated specific fiscal stimulus plans to inject growth into their economies.

Meanwhile, members of the European Union's monetary system (the single currency) are left frozen in a rigid, inflexible and arguably faulty regime.

But lack of flexibility is not even the most dangerous problem the euro member countries are facing. Even more dangerous to the euro's future existence is the death-spiraling plunge of neighboring eastern and central European “non-euro” countries.

The New Iron Curtain …

For the outliers in emerging Europe, many of whom are ex-communist economies, the impenetrable curtain is membership into the European Union's monetary system, the euro. Most importantly, membership in the common currency gives these countries refuge from speculators launching attacks on their currencies.

Keep in mind that it's hard enough for even the most powerful countries in the world to sustain through the biggest economic downturn since World War II. But economies that are highly dependent upon exports and foreign direct investment — both of which have dried up — plus debt obligations that increase in value by the day, have even more obstacles to overcome.

You see, when companies and consumers in these small “periphery” European countries borrowed money, they borrowed in euros and Swiss francs, not their local currencies. In fact, the level of borrowing in foreign currencies by countries like Latvia represents as much as 90 percent of the bank loans made in that country.

And why not … After all, euro-denominated loans were cheaper and interest rates were more stable. What's more, these periphery countries assumed that they would be joining their rich neighbors in the euro in the near future.

That's why I see two black clouds threatening the euro's survival …

Black Cloud #1 — Pressures from Non-Euro Countries

When the economic engine of your economy stalls (i.e. global demand for your exports evaporates) and the fragility of your financial system is glaring, investors flee and speculators wage an attack on your currency.

And this is precisely what's taking place in the currency markets right now …

Emerging market economies in Europe have been hammered, driving DOWN the value of their currencies and driving UP the value of the foreign-currency denominated debt that consumers and institutions in these countries are holding.

When a currency devalues, foreign-currency denominated debts become more and more expensive. For a perspective on how much these debts are escalating, here is an indication of the sharp decline these at-risk currencies have made.

So how does this affect Europe as a whole and more specifically the future of the euro?

The aggressive lending practices in the global, credit-led boom were just that — aggressive. Now, add into the equation:

The slowing (if not collapsing) economies in this emerging European region,
Plus the increasingly unstable political environments,
Plus the currency-driven debt inflation …
… and the likely outcome is indeed bleak.

So how much are the rich, Western European banks, that made these loans to emerging Europe, on the hook for?

It's in the $3.6 trillion range. And add to that, European banks on whole have debt levels that dwarf every other developed market country, even that of the United States.

Black Cloud #2 — Vulnerability of the Euro Concept

Aside from the pressures being cooked up on the periphery, the euro member countries are in trouble for all of the reasons Milton Friedman, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, cited prior to the euro's inception 10 years ago.

I'll paraphrase four of Friedman's statements and follow each with what is going on now:

A one-size fits all monetary policy doesn't give the member countries the flexibility needed to stimulate their economies.
The European Central Bank has been behind the curve on lowering interest rates because of mandated benchmarks on inflation and without attention to growth.

A fractured fiscal policy forced to adhere to rigid EU rules doesn't enable member governments to navigate their country-specific problems, such as deficit spending and public works projects.
France, Spain, Malta, Greece and Ireland have disregarded the EU's Stability and Growth Pact by running excessive deficits.

Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors.
Hungary has walked into the latest EU summit, hat-in-hand, asking for a mere 190 billion euros; Germany has rejected the notion of big spending to bail-out countries, and German citizens are in protectionist mode.

A common currency can act as handcuffs in perilous times. Exchange rates can be used as a tool to revalue debt and improve competitiveness of one's economy.
Under the euro, weak member countries are helpless. Italy has a history of competitive devaluations of the lira during sour times. Now, in the euro regime, its economy is left flapping in the wind.


Milton Friedman predicted that the euro would collapse within 10 years of its inception.
As Jack has written in past Money and Markets columns, Milton Friedman saw the vulnerability of this concept coming and predicted the euro's demise within a decade.

Today, the most challenging issue facing the euro might be addressed in this statement:

“Political unity can pave the way for monetary unity. Monetary unity imposed under unfavorable conditions will prove a barrier to the achievement of political unity.”

Germany, the core of the euro and the rich uncle to its euro-member partners, appears increasingly intolerant of the less responsible, less viable partners. Could they make an unexpected departure from the currency union?

Is the next target for the euro the 2000 lows?

In late 2000, just short of two years following its launch, the euro hit an all-time low of 0.8230 — off 30 percent from its January 1999 opening level.

The chart above suggests the euro could soon revisit that level. And with the events unfolding as I've laid out today, it could be sooner rather than later.

Regards,

Bryan Rich

What Is Forex !!!

This is yours and please read it:

What Is The Forex?

Profits are made from the difference in value between the two currencies (the exchange rate). Because currencies are no longer tied to the gold standard, exchange rates are constantly fluctuating. Speculators trade currencies with the expectation that one will gain in strength against the other. These trades are leveraged, with a small downpayment controlling a much larger sum, so even small changes in value can create large profits or losses.

The Forex is the mother of all markets, with trading of more than U.S. $1.5 trillion daily. That抯 more than one hundred times the size of the New York Stock Exchange. Because the market is so large, extremely liquid; there抯 always an immediate buyer or seller for any of the major currency pairs. Most of this trading is done for profit; only five percent of the trades made each day are for the purpose of changing currencies for business or travel.

The Forex market is also so large that it cannot be manipulated. Even powerful central banks can抰 force the market to do their bidding, as the Bank of England found out in 1992. When the BoE used reserves to support the pound against the Euro, investors traded against the pound and by sheer numbers overwhelmed the BoE. It抯 rumored that one investor, George Soros, made a profit of U.S. $1 billion overnight.

The Forex is a completely virtual marketplace. There抯 no building where buyers and sellers meet, or where brokers hang out looking for action. All trading takes place over the telephone or on the Internet. Small investors trade currency brokers, who in turn place their orders through large banks. Commissions are low and are built into the exchange rate.

It was once said that the sun never set on the British Empire. The same can be said for the Forex trading 揹ay,?which lasts roughly six days. It opens in Sydney with the local Monday morning, then moves with the sun to Tokyo, Frankfurt, London, and finally York, ten back around again to Sydney. It closes in New York on Friday evening. This means that, at any time of the day or night during each work week, some currency, somewhere around the world, is actively trading. The clock may say it抯 midnight, but there are still opportunities to make money on the Forex.

These long trading hours allow investors to speculate on the results of world events as they抮e happening. If a country has announced that it will release relating to its economic growth or decline, an investor can take advantage of the influence of that announcement on the country抯 currency梕ven if it抯 taking place during his night.

GBP/USD Pair @ 7.15 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4111 (My Target is 1.3850)

BUY Area - 1.4151 (My Target is 1.4250)

If fail to break S1 candle my drop back at 1.4132.

Salam and Hi...

Yesterday my Buy and Sell area met but fail to reach my target. Congratulations who get them and hopping today will be much better. Set your target and the target must be reasonable. Let say your target is 60 pips a day oldo the market may go to 200 pips but please remember this, that the 200 pips is not confirm. But your target of 60 pips will be confirm and you should achive it asap if you take care of your discipline. Belive me, without a proper discipline you will be failure trader.

SO WHAT NEXT FOR TODAY????

Uwahhhhhh I have to go to bed now - have to get some sleep and hope to have a 4 hours rest to refresh my mind. I will send my predictions asap when I'm ready. Until then thanks for your reading here.

ALLAH HU.

My Predictions On 03.30 pm (Malaysia):

Trading Range Is Between 1.3957 to 1.4383.

1. Break 1.3957 candle may drop sharply to 1.3850.

2. Break 1.4383 candle may go up furthur to test 1.4606 area.

At this moment candle move from a rebound at 1.3957. This rebound are a consolidations movement from 1.4232 and look like more on corections from the drop. If fail to break 1.4383 area candle will drop back to 1.4132 area.

Let see this happen and be happy always. Please control your emosions and set the target.

AKU HIDUP AKU TERBAIK AKU PASTI BERJAYA.

ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.... ALLAH HU.

GBP/USD Pair @ 9.30 pm (Malaysia)

BUY Area : 1.4137 (My target is 1.4250)

SELL Area : 1.4097 (My target is 1.3950).

Salam....

Yesterday Buy Area met at 1.4075 and met my first target at 1.4156 and stop at 1.4198. Congratulations who got that and bank-in more 100 pips.

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 3.30 pm (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4075 (my target is 1.4156 and after that 1.4350 area).

SELL Area - 1.4035 (my target is 1.3950 and after that 1.3850 area).

Trading Range is between 1.3850 to 1.4350

Salam..... and Hi.

Candle is on consolidations move from 1.4660 drop and furthur drop is possible to 1.3850 and may drop to 1.3700 area in few days.

The nearest resistance is at 1.4156 and if break candle may go up furthur to test 1.4350. If this happen candle will test 1.4660 area. If fail candle will find Mr. pivot again at 1.4054 and from here will test 1.3850 area.

Please be aware on all reversal signal like Harami, doji, inverted hammer or hangging man.

Let see this happen and happy trading.

Allah Hu.

H4 Charts At 06.30 pm (Malaysia):

Look at H4 chart - candle is trying to break 61.80% Fibonaci and is on going to test 50% Fibo. If success candle will try to break my target at 1.4156. If success candle will try to test R3 at 1.4263. If fail candle will drop back to Mr. Pivot at 1.4054 and deffinately will test 1.3850 area.

Let we see this happen and please be more discipline on all the relevan indicator.

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 10.15 am (malaysia

SELL Area - 1.4077 ( First Target : 1.3950 Second Target 1.3850)

BUY Area - 1.4117 ( My target is : 1.4160 Second Target : 1.4287)

Trading Range is between 1.3950 - 1.4383 :

Salam and Hi,

Yesterday candle break 1.4090 and drop until 1.3956 but fail to break my second target at 1.3850. So candle move back up but fail to find Mr. Pivot. So what next for today :

1. SELL Area : Break 1.3950 candle will test 1.3850. If success candle may drop to 1.3700 area within few days.

2. BUY Area : Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4661 level in couple of days.

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (malaysia

SELL Area - 1.4241 (My target is 1.4161)

BUY Area - 1.4281 (My target is 1.4383)

Trading range is between 1.4090 to 1.4383.

1. SELL Area - Break 1.4090 candle in favor to test 1.3850. Fail to break candle will bounce back to 1.4262.

2. BUY Area - Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4660 area.