From Bloomberg

Dollar Gains Most in 2 Months on Optimism Worst of Crisis Over
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By Ron Harui and Lukanyo Mnyanda

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted the biggest weekly gain versus the euro in more than two months on optimism the worst of the financial crisis in the U.S. is over.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six of its biggest trading partners, completed the largest weekly advance since November after Wells Fargo & Co.’s profit beat estimates, triggering the steepest one-day gain on record in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Banks Index. The euro dropped the most against the yen since January on concern the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to below 1 percent to spur growth.

“Wells Fargo’s results augur well for U.S. banks’ earnings and point to an easing in the financial crisis,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker. “The dollar is likely to be bought.”

The dollar climbed 2.3 percent this week to $1.3143 per euro on April 10, the biggest gain since the five days through Jan. 23. It touched $1.3090 yesterday, the strongest level since March 18. The greenback strengthened 1.1 percent to $1.4672 per pound and advanced 0.6 percent to 1,333 South Korean won.

The yen appreciated 2.3 percent to 132.18 per euro, the biggest gain since the week to Jan. 23. It was little changed against the dollar at 100.24 yen from 100.31 on April 3.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, gained 1.9 percent this week to 85.786, the most since the five days through Nov. 21. The ICE was closed yesterday for Easter.

The U.S. currency advanced after Wells Fargo, the second- largest U.S. home lender, said on April 9 that first-quarter net income surged 50 percent because of “strong” revenue from Wachovia Corp., which it acquired last year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will release its first-quarter results on April 14. The New York-based company is considering a multibillion dollar share sale to help repay a $10 billion government loan, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter.

U.S. Treasury yields this week climbed to near the highest since the Federal Reserve started buying debt as the economy showed signs of improving and the U.S. sold $59 billion in debt. The 10-year yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.93 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Rate Cut

The euro touched a three-week low against the dollar yesterday on concern the ECB will lower its benchmark rate for a fourth time this year at its meeting next month.

ECB council member Nout Wellink said the central bank can make additional cuts to its 1.25 percent rate and is considering other measures to spur lending and boost the economy.

“There is some room for lowering the interest rate,” Wellink, who also heads the Dutch central bank, said April 9 in an interview in Leiden, the Netherlands. “There is also room for other measures, on which we will decide soon,” he said, declining to specify what action the bank might take.

Fellow member Ewald Nowotny said cutting the rate below 1 percent was still open for debate and it would be “sensible” for the bank to buy corporate debt as it fights for an economic recovery.

“There seems to be a growing consensus for more rate reductions” from the ECB, said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth-largest bank. “The euro will probably weaken.”

Room to Lower

Investors raised bets the ECB will lower borrowing costs at its May 7 meeting. The yield on the three-month Euribor interest-rate futures contract for May delivery fell to 1.31 percent on April 9 from 1.39 percent at the end of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The euro may extend its decline to $1.25 after dropping below a March 30 low of $1.3114, Sumitomo Trust’s Uchida said.

The $1.3114 level represents so-called support on a horizontal trend line of a descending triangle, he said. The trend line connects the March 30 low and the April 9 low, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A descending triangle consists of horizontal and descending trend lines.

‘Buying Opportunity’

Investors should use a decline in the euro as an opportunity to buy the common European currency, according to BNP Paribas SA. The euro may fall to $1.30 over the next week, analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note yesterday.

“Any such pullback would be viewed a medium-term buying opportunity,” they said.

The yen rose for a fourth day versus the euro yesterday as Asian stocks pared an earlier advance, prompting some investors to reduce their holdings of higher-yielding assets.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average trimmed its gains to 0.5 percent after earlier rising as much as 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares gained 0.6 percent following an earlier 1 percent increase.

“The Japanese stock market isn’t reacting as positively as the U.S.’s,” said Ryohei Muramatsu, Tokyo-based manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest lender. “The pullback in equities here is leading to some buying of the yen.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net; Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 11, 2009 01:54 EDT

Statement From fx360 For GBP/USD

BOE MEETING MAY BECOME A NON-EVENT FOR FOREX MARKETS

The pound is well contained in today’s trading showing only a slight move to the upside. It does not appear to just be the holiday weekend that is keeping GBP/USD motionless, as weekly price action has been hesitant to show any clear direction. As a better indication of pound sentiment, a look at EUR/GBP shows that the pair has staged a steady downward drift for most of this week. This situation is a rare find in a week with a BoE decision, among other central bank decisions. It is apparent that yesterday’s meeting presented nothing new for the markets to move on. The BoE only reaffirmed their backing of the quantitative easing program that they initiated last month. It is a real possibility that, judging by this week’s decision, the BoE meeting will become a non-event like the BoJ and even the Fed. It seems that at this point, all has been dispensed in their efforts. For future meetings, any surprise will come from either change in the asset purchases or in the event that the policy shows some signs of success. UK data will be sparse next week, emphasizing the housing market with DCLG House Prices and RICS House Price Balance.

GBP/USD @ 09.45 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4643 ( My Target : 1.4584 Next : 1.4550)

BUY Area - 1.4685 ( My Target : 1.4705 Next : 1.4744 Next : 1.4778)

Salam and Hi....

Today is a Bank Holiday in most country in Europe. That mean no so much trading activity today. So better sit down and study back what you have learn from me before. Anyway trading range today is between 1.4580 to 1.4957 and maybe monday morning more activity will happen. If the initial resistance hold at 1.4778 candle possibility may drop to 1.4290 area Next Week. Until then Good Luck.

Allah Hu.

From Market oracle.. please read !!!

The USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows.

GBP low prints at 1.4580 was not challenged in New York today and the rate lifted to a two-pip high at 1.4780 before settling back to the 1.4720 area; traders note stops in-range above the 1.4720 area seen as daily resistance and with the rate holding gains from the start of New York traders are expecting further gains overnight despite weakness in equities seen to start the week.

Across the board the USD rally today has failed to extend gains suggesting that despite risk-aversion trade today this firmness is likely a corrective rally rather than the start of a move higher. Although many traders remain bullish USD for the near-term the rallies seem to lack conviction; further strength is likely to be offered and aggressive traders need to see this rally as a selling opportunity. Look for the USD to remain two-way overnight with any strength to be on light volume and holding under resistance. With a light economic calendar ahead the action should be technical for the most part.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5040/50, Resistance 2: 1.5000, Resistance 1: 1.4950

Latest New York: 1.4736, Support 1: 1.4650, Support 2: 1.4580, Support 3: 1.4550

Comments

Rate falls through stops layered under the 1.4650 area for lows on support at 1.4580; pullback being bought by large names traders say. Aggressive traders can look to re-set longs on the dip; stops above the market from late shorts around 1.4720 area cleared today. Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000. Overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to trade but expect pressure. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure. The shorts may have lost control of the market above the 1.4440 area now and if that is the case a test of the 1.5000 area is almost a done-deal. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y

GBP/USD @ 11.50 am (Malaysia)

Salam and Hi........

Trading Range is between 1.4580 to 1.1.4957.

BUY Area - 1.4705 (My Target : 1.4771 Next : 1.4850)

SELL Area - 1.4665 (My Target : 1.4622 Next : 1.4580 - possibility to break 1.4515)

Allah Hu.

Ambilah Batang I Kita Ambil Bukit Aje !!!

Listen, can you hear it?

Yes, it is the sound of printing presses going 24/7 around the world.

Can there be any doubt where we are heading with all of these ‘dollars' being printed?

Inflation or hyperinflation is within sight but it will probably take a few more years to get there.

And then what? You better ‘hope' you are correctly positioned to benefit from this investment scenario. There are several ways this may play out, but we believe it will ultimately be a game with the global currencies in a race for the bottom.

Two currencies which are surely destined to rise in value in the coming years in this environment (at least relative to other currencies) are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar, both currencies of countries with substantial natural resources.

Seems like only yesterday when the Canadian dollar was below 65 then went parabolic to 110 in May 2008 and now looks to have found a bottom in the 77 – 78 range and is current around 80. A quick look at the performance of the Australian dollar shows a high in July 2008, hitting a low of around 60 and currently looking short term overbought at the 72 level.

In the case of Canadian junior mining shares owned by U.S. investors this means that due to currency pricing alone you have lost about 30% in the value of your investments from the currency peak in May 2008. And you thought you were not playing the currency markets? Guess again.

There is a positive spin to this story because we believe both the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar will be big performers in the coming months and years due to the strong resource base of each of these countries.

Not only with investors recoup the loss in current draw downs in their investment portfolios but they will recoup their investments faster as the natural resource sector/commodity sector catches fire again and the Canadian and Australian dollars rise strongly.

Particularly for U.S. investors, we suggest a substantial position in gold/silver bullion, selected junior mining shares and perhaps, long-term warrants on some of your favorite mining companies to weather this financial storm and benefit there from.

For those readers interested in learning more about warrants we encourage you to visit our website .

Dudley Pierce Baker
Guadalajara/Ajijic, México
Email: info@preciousmetalswarrants.com
Website: PreciousMetalsWarrants

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.30 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4675 ( Target 1 : 1.4580 Traget 2 : 1.4501)


BUY Area - 1.4717 ( Target 1 : 1.4812 Target 2 : 1.4891)


Salam and Hi.....Trading range is between 1.4100 to 1.4957.

Allah Hu.