Happy Week End To All My Frens - no predictions today !!!

I rest at home at this moment and maybe tomorrow will be at Bagan Lalang with Dr. Harveen.

Tip From Market Oracle:

GBP rallied to hold the 1.3800 handle after scoring highs at 1.3841 suggesting that the low-volume dip to the 1.3550 area overnight was a bear-trap. Further upside is likely if the rate can score the 1.3900 handle mid-week as the rate is overdue for a short-squeeze in my view.

Rate two-way and recovers after a marginal new low into support overnight. 23 year lows in sight but the rate is attracting bids. Reversal off weekly lows a positive technical but the volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group. Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to rebound hard to wash-out the shorts again. After yesterday’s action I think both sides will take a break. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with long-term support at 1.3500 area now in play. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Short squeeze back on the board I think.

GBP/USD Pair @ 08.15 am (Malaysia)

Trading range is between 1.3645 to 1.4305:

BUY Area - 1.3887 (My target is 1.3985. Next target is 1.4090)

SELL Area - 1.3845 (MY target is 1.3780. Next target is 1.3645)

Salam and Hi.....

Yesterday both my Sell and Buy area met. Sell area fail to meet my first target at 1.3653, stop at 1.3698 and rebound to find Mr. Pivot again. My BUY area at 1.3827 met and also met my first target at 1.3955 and stop at 1.3982. After that the price drop back and stop at 1.3908.

So what Next for today :

Looks at H4 chart - there already performed Abandoned Baby pattern. No doubt candle will drop to find Mr. Pivot.

RSI7 is going down so do ATR is already down. Its Bearish at this moment 08.45 am Malaysia. Candle is already back in from outside UL BB.

Good Luck.

ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU

TIP from me at 03.10 pm (Malaysia):

salam.... doa umat Islam pada hari jumaat di makbulkan Allah - insyaAllah. Kalau tak pecah 1.4090 petang ini candle akan test 1.3645 hari ini - insyaAllah malam. Kalau gagal test di bawah dia rebound balik cari Mr. Pivot.

GBP/USD Pair @ 06.45 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.3827 (My target is 1.3955. Second target is 1.4090)

As long as 1.3955 not broken, candle may drop back to test 1.3600 area. If break 1.3955, candle will test 1.4090.

SELL Area - 1.3787 (My target is 1.3653)

Trading Range is between 1.3600 - 1.4305.

Salam and Allah Hu.

ps... busy today because may daughter iqin got her SPM results today. Available after 2.00 pm.

GBP/USD Pair @ 01.15 pm (Malaysia)

SELL Area - Free Fall Today - please use your relevan indicator that mean High To sell Low To Buy. My target is 1.3500 area.

Initial resistance is at 1.4305. As long 1.3950 not broken candle may drop to 1.3600 area and the major support to test is 1.3500.

That mean today is a Bearish day. Let see this happen and please use all the relevan indicator and be more discipline. Good Luck.

Allah Hu.... Allah Hu... Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.3883 ( My target is 1.3700. Possiblely to test 1.3500 area)

BUY Area - 1.3923 ( My target is 1.4065. After that 1.4305)

Salam and Hi......

Trading Range is between 1.3500 to 1.4305.

1. SELL Area - Break 1.3700 candle will test 1.3600 and if success candle will test 2009 Low at 1.3500. This will happen as long as 1.3950 area not broken.

2. BUY Area - Break 1.4305 candle will test 1.4606. This only will happen if 1.3950 area broken.

ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU... ALLAH HU...

ps : this predictions is only for the use of my student and relevan to some indicator such like RSI, Stoch, MA, BB on H4 chart. I'm not responsible to any results you get by using my predictions.For some Forex gurus who been criticise my predictions thanks to you. This is my technic to teach people - and I just dont care wether this predictions is good or not. Because what I knew this guaranteed at least 60 pips a day make good result for somebody name Mr Syarbainy from Malacca who manage got 380 pips on yesterday predictions. Hehehe... my way is my way not yours.

kepada yang cemburu dengan saya seperti Haji Azmi dari Taman U, Johor ingat tuan Haji Azmi @ gedik @ Jakun - Fitnah yang tuan lemparkan kepada saya mengenai Farflex Commerce tidak akan saya maafkan. Kecuali anda memohon maaf secara terbuka di forum itu dan menyesal memfitnah saya. Kalau tidak Tuan Haji tanggunglah dosa fitnah itu dan saya tidak akan pedulikannya lagi.

Salam.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.55 am (Malaysia)

1. SELL Area - 1.4117 (my target is 1.3950. May drop further to 1.3850).

2. BUY Area - 1.4157 (my target is 1.4236.Possibility to test 1.4383).

Salam and Hi.....

Trading Range is between 1.3950 to 1.4383:

1. Break 1.3950 candle will drop to test 1.3850.

2. Break 1.4383 candle will test 1.4606 area.

Allah Hu.

Euro in Freefall as European Monetary Union Faces Collapse

Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being exposed for all of its structural weaknesses.

The euro is managed with a common monetary policy. But a fractured fiscal and political structure has left it without a full toolbox to fight hard times. And this chink in the armor is threatening to make the euro's life-span short.

The U.S., China, the UK, Japan, and Australia have made aggressive, downward adjustments in interest rates. Some have boosted their money supply to fight the economic crisis and have formulated specific fiscal stimulus plans to inject growth into their economies.

Meanwhile, members of the European Union's monetary system (the single currency) are left frozen in a rigid, inflexible and arguably faulty regime.

But lack of flexibility is not even the most dangerous problem the euro member countries are facing. Even more dangerous to the euro's future existence is the death-spiraling plunge of neighboring eastern and central European “non-euro” countries.

The New Iron Curtain …

For the outliers in emerging Europe, many of whom are ex-communist economies, the impenetrable curtain is membership into the European Union's monetary system, the euro. Most importantly, membership in the common currency gives these countries refuge from speculators launching attacks on their currencies.

Keep in mind that it's hard enough for even the most powerful countries in the world to sustain through the biggest economic downturn since World War II. But economies that are highly dependent upon exports and foreign direct investment — both of which have dried up — plus debt obligations that increase in value by the day, have even more obstacles to overcome.

You see, when companies and consumers in these small “periphery” European countries borrowed money, they borrowed in euros and Swiss francs, not their local currencies. In fact, the level of borrowing in foreign currencies by countries like Latvia represents as much as 90 percent of the bank loans made in that country.

And why not … After all, euro-denominated loans were cheaper and interest rates were more stable. What's more, these periphery countries assumed that they would be joining their rich neighbors in the euro in the near future.

That's why I see two black clouds threatening the euro's survival …

Black Cloud #1 — Pressures from Non-Euro Countries

When the economic engine of your economy stalls (i.e. global demand for your exports evaporates) and the fragility of your financial system is glaring, investors flee and speculators wage an attack on your currency.

And this is precisely what's taking place in the currency markets right now …

Emerging market economies in Europe have been hammered, driving DOWN the value of their currencies and driving UP the value of the foreign-currency denominated debt that consumers and institutions in these countries are holding.

When a currency devalues, foreign-currency denominated debts become more and more expensive. For a perspective on how much these debts are escalating, here is an indication of the sharp decline these at-risk currencies have made.

So how does this affect Europe as a whole and more specifically the future of the euro?

The aggressive lending practices in the global, credit-led boom were just that — aggressive. Now, add into the equation:

The slowing (if not collapsing) economies in this emerging European region,
Plus the increasingly unstable political environments,
Plus the currency-driven debt inflation …
… and the likely outcome is indeed bleak.

So how much are the rich, Western European banks, that made these loans to emerging Europe, on the hook for?

It's in the $3.6 trillion range. And add to that, European banks on whole have debt levels that dwarf every other developed market country, even that of the United States.

Black Cloud #2 — Vulnerability of the Euro Concept

Aside from the pressures being cooked up on the periphery, the euro member countries are in trouble for all of the reasons Milton Friedman, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, cited prior to the euro's inception 10 years ago.

I'll paraphrase four of Friedman's statements and follow each with what is going on now:

A one-size fits all monetary policy doesn't give the member countries the flexibility needed to stimulate their economies.
The European Central Bank has been behind the curve on lowering interest rates because of mandated benchmarks on inflation and without attention to growth.

A fractured fiscal policy forced to adhere to rigid EU rules doesn't enable member governments to navigate their country-specific problems, such as deficit spending and public works projects.
France, Spain, Malta, Greece and Ireland have disregarded the EU's Stability and Growth Pact by running excessive deficits.

Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors.
Hungary has walked into the latest EU summit, hat-in-hand, asking for a mere 190 billion euros; Germany has rejected the notion of big spending to bail-out countries, and German citizens are in protectionist mode.

A common currency can act as handcuffs in perilous times. Exchange rates can be used as a tool to revalue debt and improve competitiveness of one's economy.
Under the euro, weak member countries are helpless. Italy has a history of competitive devaluations of the lira during sour times. Now, in the euro regime, its economy is left flapping in the wind.


Milton Friedman predicted that the euro would collapse within 10 years of its inception.
As Jack has written in past Money and Markets columns, Milton Friedman saw the vulnerability of this concept coming and predicted the euro's demise within a decade.

Today, the most challenging issue facing the euro might be addressed in this statement:

“Political unity can pave the way for monetary unity. Monetary unity imposed under unfavorable conditions will prove a barrier to the achievement of political unity.”

Germany, the core of the euro and the rich uncle to its euro-member partners, appears increasingly intolerant of the less responsible, less viable partners. Could they make an unexpected departure from the currency union?

Is the next target for the euro the 2000 lows?

In late 2000, just short of two years following its launch, the euro hit an all-time low of 0.8230 — off 30 percent from its January 1999 opening level.

The chart above suggests the euro could soon revisit that level. And with the events unfolding as I've laid out today, it could be sooner rather than later.

Regards,

Bryan Rich