What Happen On EU ON 11 November 2011

Stocks, Euro Climb as European Officials Craft $1.3 Trillion Bailout Fund

U.S. stocks and the euro rose, recovering from earlier losses, as European governments discussed deploying $1.3 trillion in funds to tame the sovereign debt crisis. Treasuries fell and commodities pared losses.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.5 percent to 1,215.39 at the 4 p.m. close in New York after tumbling as much as 1 percent. The euro gained 0.2 percent to $1.3786, rebounding from a 0.8 percent slide, and 10-year Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2.19 percent after decreasing as much as five basis points. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities lost 0.3 percent, recovering from a 1.9 percent decline.
Riskier assets rebounded as two people familiar with the matter said Europe may combine the temporary and permanent rescue funds to pool as much as 940 billion euros to fight the crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a joint statement they want euro-region leaders to agree on an “ambitious” plan. The European Union said a planned Oct. 23 summit will be followed by another session on Oct. 26.
“The main thing is -- can we get to the point where we actually have a constructive resolution in Europe?” Brian Barish, Denver-based president of Cambiar Investors LLC, which oversees about $8 billion, said in a telephone interview. “The market is hypersensitive as to whether or not a plan will emerge that will stabilize Europe.”
Earlier losses in stocks, commodities and the euro came amid growing concern leaders were gridlocked on plans to leverage the region’s bailout fund as Merkel canceled a speech to the German parliament tomorrow. Banks in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 4 percent as a group and yields on 10-year Italian bonds topped 6 percent for the first time in more than two months, underscoring the urgency of the need for a solution.
Financial Shares Reverse
Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 1.8 percent as a group, reversing a 1.1 percent slide and posting the biggest gain among 10 industries. Fifth Third Bancorp and KeyCorp rose 9.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, to lead gains after the Ohio-based regional lenders posted better-than-estimated earnings. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Alcoa Inc. climbed at least 1.8 percent for the top gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which increased 0.3 percent to 11,541.78.
EBay Inc. slid 3.1 percent after the largest online marketplace forecast sales and profit that missed some analyst estimates. Boston Scientific Corp. slipped 4.4 percent after third-quarter profit declined 25 percent as demand fell for its defibrillators and pacemakers used to regulate the heart.
Earnings-per share have topped analysts’ estimates at about 75 percent of the 89 companies in the S&P 500 that released results since Oct. 11. Net Income has grown 15 percent for the group and sales have increased 9.5 percent, Bloomberg data show.
Philadelphia Manufacturing
U.S. equities climbed early in the session as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index climbed more than forecast to 8.7, unexpectedly signaling expansion in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.
About five shares declined for every one that gained in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which slipped 1.5 percent. European markets closed before France and Germany issued their joint statement. Banks led losses, with Italy’s UniCredit SpA plunging 12 percent and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA slumping 9.8 percent. Banks that need aid from Europe’s rescue fund must be restructured as a condition for receiving capital, according to draft guidelines obtained by Bloomberg News.
The yield on French 10-year debt rose to 115 basis points above benchmark German bunds, the highest since the creation of the euro currency.
European Yields
The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond rose 13 basis points to a two-month high of 5.53 percent as demand dropped at the nation’s first debt sale since Moody’s Investors Service cut the country’s credit ranking.
Greek 10-year bond yields slipped 41 basis points to 23.89 percent, compared with a record 26.70 percent on Sept. 15.
EU officials weighing deeper losses for Greek bondholders in a revamped bailout are concerned that any investor involvement risks further roiling markets, say people familiar with the EU’s deliberations. The people said the EU is considering five scenarios for the private sector’s role. They range from sticking with July’s voluntary debt swap plan to forcing investors to exchange Greek bonds for new ones at 50 percent of their value.
Greek Austerity
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won the backing of a majority of lawmakers in a second test of support for a new austerity package. Greek Citizen Protection Minister Christos Papoutsis appealed for calm after a man died during protests in Athens today.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 2.7 percent, the biggest decline on a closing basis in more than two weeks. South Korea’s Kospi Index declined 2.7 percent as benchmark gauges for Brazil and Poland lost at least 1.7 percent.
The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.9 percent to a 31- month low on concern China may persist with policies to rein in lending. Risks stemming from private lending must be “strictly controlled,” China’s banking regulator said.
Thailand’s SET Index lost 3.1 percent as the central bank said it will cut its economic growth forecast as the worst floods in 50 years threaten to keep factories closed for months.
To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

EFSF Speech to Assembly Cancelled

Posted by By admin at 20 October, at 17 : 26 PM Print


German Chancellor Angela Merkel has canceled a planned speech to parliament in Berlin tomorrow because of a deadlock over proposals to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility to give it more firepower, three German lawmakers said.

“It’s a disappointing development but without any concrete proposal for increasing the efficiency of the fund the chancellor can’t present a complete set of proposals tomorrow,” Norbert Barthle the ranking member of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party on parliament’s budget committee, told reporters. Other lawmakers confirming cancelation of Merkel’s speech were opposition members Carsten Schneider and Priska Hinz.

“The French want more money from Germany than we are prepared to shoulder,” Otto Fricke, the budget spokesman for Merkel’s Free Democratic Party ally in parliament, told reporters today.

France and Germany are wrangling over the role of the European Central Bank in tackling Europe’s debt crisis. Finance ministers gather in Brussels tomorrow to set a common strategy, with European leaders scheduled to meet Oct. 23.

German lawmakers today said they will not sign off on proposals to enhance the firepower of the EFSF because of the disagreements.

As the summit approaches, the euro-region’s biggest financial backers Germany and France are still at odds over how to expand the EFSF’s firepower, accommodating new tools from precautionary loans to buying bonds in primary and secondary markets. Draft EFSF guidelines, obtained by Bloomberg News today, make no mention of how to boost its 440 billion-euro firepower.

France favors creating a bank out of the EFSF, boosting its financial clout with backing from the ECB, a proposal that Germany rejects, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin this week. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said today that the euro region should agree to use leverage to make the region’s financial support fund “massive.”

“It’s not the fault of the government or parliament but is a problem among the international partners,” Barthle said.


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Repost From The Beige Book !!!

October 19, 2011

Summary

Full report

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and based on information collected on or before October 7, 2011. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that overall economic activity continued to expand in September, although many Districts described the pace of growth as "modest" or "slight" and contacts generally noted weaker or less certain outlooks for business conditions. The reports suggest that consumer spending was up slightly in most Districts, with auto sales and tourism leading the way in several of them. Business spending increased somewhat, particularly for construction and mining equipment and auto dealer inventories, but many Districts noted restraint in hiring and capital spending plans. By sector, manufacturing and transportation activity was reported to have increased on balance. A few Districts also reported slight improvements in construction and real estate activity; nonetheless, overall conditions for both residential and commercial real estate remained weak. Districts reporting on nonfinancial services cited mixed results with activity varying widely by industry. Loan demand by and large moved lower, with the exception of an increase in mortgage refinancing in many Districts. Crop conditions at harvest were generally less favorable than a year ago. In contrast, energy and mining activity continued to strengthen in several Districts, with the exception of some storm-related slowdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Cost pressures eased in the majority of Districts, though there was some further pass-through of earlier increases to downstream prices. Wage pressures remained subdued outside of a few exceptions in which firms noted having difficulty finding appropriately skilled workers.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending was up slightly in September. The majority of Districts reported increases in auto sales, with the largest improvements in San Francisco and New York. Several Districts noted a greater availability of new vehicles as the supply disruptions that had plagued auto dealerships in the aftermath of the Japanese disaster subsided. Contacts in the Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia, and Dallas Districts indicated that demand for used cars remained high and that some models were still scarce. A large number of Districts reported that non-auto retail sales were flat to down in September; but a few, such as Philadelphia, Richmond, and Dallas noted an increase in customer traffic late in the month and into early October. Back-to-school sales were described as being fairly strong in New York and satisfactory in Richmond. In addition, Boston, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas cited some strength in the sales of big-ticket or luxury items, while Minneapolis and Chicago noted that more consumers were trading down to value products at grocery stores.

Tourism was generally higher in those Districts reporting on the sector. Contacts in New York noted that, despite the negative impact of Hurricane Irene, Broadway and hotel revenues continued to rise. Richmond reported substantial damage from Hurricane Irene to some tourist destinations that were subsequently forced to close for repairs, but tourism remained vibrant in other areas. Boston, Atlanta, and Minneapolis also cited increases in tourism, with hospitality contacts in Atlanta expecting a robust holiday season. Tourism results were mixed across various destinations in the San Francisco district.

Business Spending
Business spending increased somewhat from the previous report. However, contacts in a number of Districts reported that a weaker and more uncertain economic outlook had increased caution and was weighing on future spending plans. Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago indicated that many retailers were reluctant to build inventories ahead of the holiday season, pointing to recent declines in consumer confidence. Auto dealers were an exception, as they continued to replenish inventories that ran low in the aftermath of the production disruptions caused by the Japanese disaster. Capital spending continued as planned in most Districts. Respondents in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago noted increased purchases of equipment in the manufacturing, mining, and transportation industries. Boston and Minneapolis indicated that some manufacturers planned to expand capacity either through mergers and acquisitions or the building of additional facilities. Atlanta cited a pick-up in corporate expansion and relocation interest, and Chicago noted an increase in mergers and acquisitions activity among middle-market firms.

Nonfinancial Services
Reports regarding nonfinancial services were mixed in September. Richmond noted slower overall activity, and St. Louis cited reduced demand for telecommunications, media, and education services. Demand for accounting and legal services was reported to have been unchanged in both Dallas and San Francisco. On the positive side, contacts in St. Louis reported that demand for business support services increased, and Boston reported strong business conditions for economic consulting firms involved with litigation work and advertising firms helping to market financial services. In addition, San Francisco noted continued growth in demand for technology services, Minneapolis noted an increase in activity in software and engineering, and Philadelphia cited some growth in logistics. Staffing at nonfinancial service-sector firms was reported to have been up slightly in Richmond, but growth slowed in Chicago and Philadelphia reported flat activity.

Manufacturing and Transportation
Contacts indicated that manufacturing and transportation activity increased since the last report in most Districts. A large number of Districts reported higher production of autos and other transportation-related equipment. Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago noted increases in auto production, and Boston, Richmond, Chicago, and St. Louis all cited robust activity for auto suppliers. Dallas reported healthy demand for nondefense transportation goods. Boston, Richmond, Kansas City, and San Francisco indicated continued growth in commercial aviation and aerospace manufacturing. Steel production rose in Cleveland and Chicago, and in a number of Districts metal manufacturers' new orders also rose. Other areas of manufacturing were more mixed. The Dallas report noted a decline in refining activity. However, both Dallas and Atlanta continued to note robust oil and gas drilling activity, and this activity was said to be propelling demand for related equipment from suppliers in Chicago. Manufacturing of construction materials or equipment was reported to have increased some in Philadelphia, Chicago, and Dallas but remained weak in most other Districts. Growth in high-tech manufacturing continued to be robust in Boston, but moderated in Dallas and San Francisco. Respondents reported that food production was up in Chicago, Minneapolis, and San Francisco, steady in Dallas, and lower in Boston. Manufacturers of consumer products reported a softening in orders in Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas, while new orders for apparel increased in San Francisco. Freight traffic increased in Cleveland and Atlanta, driven in large part by shipments of commodities, and Richmond also noted that port activity for commodities continued to be robust. However, Richmond also indicated that imports and exports, in particular of consumer goods, were both somewhat soft during what is typically the peak season for trade.

Real Estate and Construction
All twelve Districts reported that real estate and construction activity was little changed on balance from the prior report. Residential construction remained at low levels, particularly for single-family homes. That said, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Minneapolis noted small increases in single-family construction, and construction of multifamily dwellings continued to increase at a moderate pace in Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. Home sales remained weak overall, and home prices were reported to be either flat or declining across all of the Districts. In contrast, rental demand continued to rise in a number of Districts. Commercial real estate conditions remained weak overall, although commercial construction increased at a slow pace in most Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Cleveland cited some gains in demand for construction of education, healthcare, and institutional-related buildings, and New York reported an increase in hotel development. Furthermore, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago noted an increase in demand for manufacturing and distribution facilities. Vacancy rates remained elevated, but Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis and Dallas reported an increase in leasing activity and Philadelphia and San Francisco indicated rising investor interest in well-leased office space.

Banking and Finance
Financial activity was reported to have weakened some since the last report. Dallas noted that the improvement in financial conditions had stalled, and Chicago indicated a further tightening of credit conditions, particularly for financial firms. In addition, New York reported noticeably weaker activity in the securities industry. Loan volumes were either flat or down slightly in most Districts. Consumer loan demand moved lower according to respondents in Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City, and it held steady in New York and San Francisco. However, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City all noted an increase in mortgage refinancing activity given lower mortgage rates and Cleveland also noted continued strength in auto lending and increased demand for business loans. Meanwhile, business loan demand was described as down somewhat in Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City and was little changed in most other Districts. Loan standards were described as still tight for many classes of borrowers. That said, several Districts indicated that strong competition among banks for high quality borrowers was leading to lower rates and fees for these customers.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Contacts generally reported that crop conditions at harvest were less favorable than a year ago, although results varied by and within Districts. Lower yields than a year ago were reported for major crops in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts and in most of the Kansas City District. Even so, yields were large enough to alleviate worries about shortages. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices moved down, while some contacts noted higher prices for cotton. Drought conditions persisted in the Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts, and pastures were in worse shape than a year ago in many areas. Although there were declines in feed costs, poultry and livestock producers remained pressured by drought and the cost increases of the past year. Hog, poultry, and dairy prices decreased, while cattle prices increased. Still, agricultural prices tended to be higher than a year ago, boosting farm incomes outside of drought-stricken areas. Chicago and Kansas City reported higher agricultural land values.

Activity in energy-producing sectors strengthened in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Atlanta reported a decrease in off-shore operations in the Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical Storm Lee. Cleveland and Atlanta also anticipated increased capital investments in oil and gas production, since new technology has lowered costs and boosted output. Contacts in Minneapolis reported plans for expanded wind generation of electricity. Mining activity in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts was strong.

Employment, Wages, and Prices
Respondents indicated that labor market conditions were little changed, on balance, in September. Several Districts cited only limited and selective demand for new hires. Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City all noted that firms in some sectors that were hiring more broadly (such as manufacturing, transportation, and energy) were also experiencing difficulties in finding appropriately skilled or qualified labor. Respondents in the Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts indicated that hiring was being restrained by elevated uncertainty or lower expectations for their future growth. New York reported that deteriorating business conditions in the finance industry had led to a pull back in hiring with some layoffs anticipated in the months ahead. Richmond and Chicago reported reduced seasonal hiring in retail trade given apprehension about the strength of holiday sales, while New York indicated that seasonal hiring was likely to increase.

Most Districts reported that wage pressures remained subdued. Exceptions were generally for workers with specialized skills or in areas where firms were having difficulty finding workers. For instance, Atlanta and San Francisco cited wage gains for workers with specialized skills, such as in information technology, Minneapolis reported wage increases in the energy industry, and Cleveland noted higher wages for truck drivers. In addition, contacts in Minneapolis and Cleveland noted increases in non-wage costs such as healthcare. Most other cost pressures moderated in September. Although Kansas City and San Francisco reported increases in raw material costs, most Districts reported a general decline in commodity prices, including prices of oil and industrial metals. Many Districts indicated that there continued to be some further pass-through of past increases to wholesale prices. Though retail contacts noted a hesitation to increase prices with demand still weak, many Districts reported increased pass-through of costs in the retail sector, particularly for food and cotton-based goods.

From Mario Singh

Risk currencies are having a brief rally this week due to three reasons:
1) United States employment situation beat expectations
2) Bank of England increased its asset-purchases ceiling
3) European leaders pledged to recapitalise banks

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 103,000 last month with private sector payrolls rising by 137,000. This was higher than the 50,000 estimate by industry experts. Additionally, the August NFP report was also revised up from zero to 57,000.

At the start of the week, EUR/USD edged up nearly 100 pips to reflect the cheer of the jobs report..

In a surprise move last week, the Bank of England raised the ceiling for its asset purchases to 275 billion (S$553 billion) pounds from 200 billion pounds. Tantamount to a quantitative easing, the move was the first loosening of British monetary policy since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

After plunging 200 pips at the announcement, the GBP/USD has surprisingly rallied; climbing over 375 pips since the start of the week.

European leaders met in Luxembourg last week to hammer out concrete plans to stave off a European financial crisis.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European leaders will do "everything necessary" to ensure that banks have adequate capital, joining French President Nicolas Sarkozy in persuading investors that the situation is under control.

The heads of Europe's two biggest economies reiterated their intention to keep Greece in the euro zone, and Mr Sarkozy set a deadline of Nov 3 - the date of the Group 20 summit - to address the crisis in Greece.

Despite the apparent good news that has buoyed markets, I expect the optimism to be short-lived. The worse is not over.

This is because QE3 is still on the cards as fas as the Federal Reserve is concerned.

With US unemployment hovering at 9 per cent for over two years and growth slowing down, the Fed is running out of options to stimulate growth and consumption.

Additionally, French-Belgian Bank Dexia has already become the first victim of the debt crisis in Europe. The purging has only just begun.

US$ What Next Will Happen.

The US Dollar posted big declines on the biggest S&P 500 rally in over two years, sparked by a large shift towards risky assets and away from safe-haven currencies. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index likewise posted its worst single-week decline since it set a major top in early 2009. Short-term momentum clearly favors further US Dollar weakness, but its record correlation to the Dow Jones Industrial Average emphasizes that direction could change on a moment’s notice.
A relatively quiet week of US event risk and a fairly sizeable drop in forex market volatility expectations points to a quiet week ahead. Markets will pay close attention to any developments on a highly-anticipated meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers over the weekend. Yet it seems improbable that the G20 produces genuine resolution of ongoing Euro Zone crises, and the Greenback seems unlikely to respond to any half-measures.
A scheduled speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Consumer Price Index inflation data could otherwise elicit reactions from Fed watchers and the US Dollar. Ultimately however, increasingly complacent financial markets could continue pushing the safe-haven USD lower across the board absent any major surprises.
We had previously warned that the US Dollar could see a large correction lower against the euro and other currencies, but we are beginning to wonder whether this is truly a correction and not the start of a broader dollar downtrend. The Euro/US Dollar fell over 1400 pips from late August into early October. It now trades nearly 750 pips off of those lows and has the psychologically significant $1.40 squarely in sight. Perhaps most impressively, the highly-correlated Dow Jones Industrial Average now trades slightly higher on a year-to-date basis despite fierce declines into early-month lows.
Some fundamental analysts argue that the Dow has rallied sharply on a real improvement in growth prospects for the US economy; we beg to differ. A stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report seemingly sparked the return to risk-taking across major markets. Yet the DJIA had seen massive declines into the first week of October, and the ensuing rally seems like a natural short-covering-driven correction. Indeed, stock market strength has come on exceedingly low trading volume; the S&P 500 posted a whopping 1.74% single-day gain on the lowest volume since mid-summer.
The implications for the US Dollar are relatively clear: we believe that the Greenback may continue to see short-term weakness, but a resumption of the broader equity market downtrend would likely push the USD higher into year’s end. In the coming week this means that the EURUSD could very well test the 1.4000 mark and the AUDUSD could hit fresh highs. Yet market conditions could change at a moment’s notice, and the recent wave of complacency is cause for concern.
The closely-watched S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) posted a record single-week decline on the dramatic stock market rallies. Such dramatic moves emphasizes that many had previously been betting on VIX gains (and S&P 500 weakness). Once positioning is fully unwound, however, bears may once again come out in force and the safe-haven US Dollar could rally sharply. - DR
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