So what should you do?
1. Start learning first and complete your knowledge. Learn everything that you should know about the trends, patterns, support, resistance, candle sticks, reversal and continuation signals and … . There are a lot of websites that have these information for free. You have to spend at least three months to learn all these things.
2. Decide that if you want to be a swing trader or an intraday trader. As a beginner you should choose one of them because you have to be focused on one thing first.
3. Choose a system (strategy). Your system should be as simple as possible. Complicated systems are not applicable. You can only lose with them. A System should be as easy as 1, 2, 3. Also choose a system that works according to technique and knowledge not according to superstitions. In an e-book I read about a strategy that says you should buy when you see the price has gone up for 80 pips before noon!!!
4. Start trading with the demo account using the system you have chosen. If you see that you don’t like your system or it is not good, change it. Find a better and simpler system. Get stuck to it and test it over and over and over. Spend several months to one year with the demo account. Do not be fooled by some of the forums members who say “I have started working on forex two months ago and now I make 100 pips everyday”. This is not true.
5. Forget that the account you are working with it is a demo account. Consider it as a real account. When you see you are losing, think that it is your REAL money that is burning. And when you see that you are making profit think that it is going to your real bank account. Keep in your mind that if you rush and trade emotionally you lose your money. This will help you to experience your fear and greed before trading with the real account. If you experience them, you will learn to control them. Don’t let them show themselves right when you start trading with your real money.
6. Then start working with a real account BUT trade with a very very small amount of money. I don’t care if you have a $500k account or a $100 account. Start trading with the minimum amount that you can place an order. Keep on working with this amount of money for a few weeks. If you saw that you are trading exactly like when you have been trading with the demo account, increase the amount of the money gradually. Do not play with a huge amount of money after a few successful trades.
7. Don’t give up! Don’t get disappointed when you lose. Everybody loses at the beginning. Even the best traders lose in some of their trades. Learn from your mistakes. Keep in your mind that losing is part of the game. We do not practice to learn not to lose. We practice to learn how to lose small amounts and win big amounts. Your stop loss will be triggered in some cases. This is natural. It should not prevent you from entering to another trade.
If you work in the way I explained above, you will become a professional trader in about one year without losing your money and without having to reload your account.
Happy trading
Vahid
Monday, April 20, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
From Market oracle.. please read !!!
Currency swaps are of reciprocal currency agreements (swap facilities) between central banks. The officially purpose of such agreements are explicitly of short term and are intended to finance short-term capital flows believed to be seasonal or temporary in nature. Swap agreements are also misused to facilitate large interventions in foreign exchange markets, which is what is occurring with the dollar today.
How currency swaps work
The easiest way to understand currency swaps is to think of them as two separate zero-interest loans. For example, let’s say the fed and the ECB arrange a 80 billion euros ($107 billion) swap. The ECB then lends the 80 billion euros to the US, and the US loans $107 billion dollars to the ECB. Later, at an agreed date, the currency swap is reversed: the ECB returns the $107 billion dollars to the fed, and the fed pays back 80 billion euros.
How central banks use currency swaps
Central banks use the foreign currency from swap agreements to prop up their domestic currency by:
A) Providing the foreign currency to domestic financial institutions. (If those institutions were forced to go to the exchange markets for funding, it would drive down the value of the domestic currency.)
B) Using the foreign currency to directly intervene in exchange markets.
Why currency swaps are so popular
Currency swaps allow central banks to borrow foreign currencies without revealing that their country's banking system or currency is in trouble. In other words, since both central banks involved in a currency swap borrow foreign currencies at the same time, it is difficult to tell which central bank needed them the most. It is this lack of transparency which makes currency swaps so attractive to central banks.
The dangers of currency swap agreements
Currency swaps are temporary measures that need to be unwound. If the central banks involved in currency swaps were responsible in their use of the foreign credit (ie: financing seasonal short-term capital flows), then unwinding the swap agreement is a simple matter. However, if a central bank uses a currency swap to recklessly intervene in exchange markets (ie: desperately prop up a failing currency), then unwinding swap agreement becomes problematic.
Remember that currency swap agreements are essentially two loans. When a central bank misuses a currency swap to prop up its failing currency, it will not have the foreign currency on hand when it comes time to repay the swap drawings. As a result, that central bank will then be forced to issue bonds in foreign currencies to secure the funds to unwind its half of the swap agreement.
The true danger of currency swap agreements is that they allow irresponsible central banks to temporarily prop up their currencies by racking up large amounts of foreign debt. When the swap agreements are later unwound, not only does the domestic currency’s value fall, but the nation is left with large amounts of foreign denominated debt.
The US has a history of misusing currency swap agreements
Through the treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, the United States has twice used swap agreements in failed attempts to prop up the dollar. On both those occasions, the treasury was subsequently forced to issue foreign currency-denominated debt (Roosa bonds and Carter bonds) to repay swap drawings. Evidence of this repeated misuse of currency swaps can be seen on
How currency swaps work
The easiest way to understand currency swaps is to think of them as two separate zero-interest loans. For example, let’s say the fed and the ECB arrange a 80 billion euros ($107 billion) swap. The ECB then lends the 80 billion euros to the US, and the US loans $107 billion dollars to the ECB. Later, at an agreed date, the currency swap is reversed: the ECB returns the $107 billion dollars to the fed, and the fed pays back 80 billion euros.
How central banks use currency swaps
Central banks use the foreign currency from swap agreements to prop up their domestic currency by:
A) Providing the foreign currency to domestic financial institutions. (If those institutions were forced to go to the exchange markets for funding, it would drive down the value of the domestic currency.)
B) Using the foreign currency to directly intervene in exchange markets.
Why currency swaps are so popular
Currency swaps allow central banks to borrow foreign currencies without revealing that their country's banking system or currency is in trouble. In other words, since both central banks involved in a currency swap borrow foreign currencies at the same time, it is difficult to tell which central bank needed them the most. It is this lack of transparency which makes currency swaps so attractive to central banks.
The dangers of currency swap agreements
Currency swaps are temporary measures that need to be unwound. If the central banks involved in currency swaps were responsible in their use of the foreign credit (ie: financing seasonal short-term capital flows), then unwinding the swap agreement is a simple matter. However, if a central bank uses a currency swap to recklessly intervene in exchange markets (ie: desperately prop up a failing currency), then unwinding swap agreement becomes problematic.
Remember that currency swap agreements are essentially two loans. When a central bank misuses a currency swap to prop up its failing currency, it will not have the foreign currency on hand when it comes time to repay the swap drawings. As a result, that central bank will then be forced to issue bonds in foreign currencies to secure the funds to unwind its half of the swap agreement.
The true danger of currency swap agreements is that they allow irresponsible central banks to temporarily prop up their currencies by racking up large amounts of foreign debt. When the swap agreements are later unwound, not only does the domestic currency’s value fall, but the nation is left with large amounts of foreign denominated debt.
The US has a history of misusing currency swap agreements
Through the treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, the United States has twice used swap agreements in failed attempts to prop up the dollar. On both those occasions, the treasury was subsequently forced to issue foreign currency-denominated debt (Roosa bonds and Carter bonds) to repay swap drawings. Evidence of this repeated misuse of currency swaps can be seen on
Friday, April 17, 2009
GBP/USD @ 11.15 am (Malaysia)
SELL Area - 1.4923 (My Target : 1.4800 Next : 1.4715 Next : 1.4592)
BUY Area - 1.4963 (My Target : 1.5012 Next : 1.5152)
Trading Range is between 1.4800 - 1.5100.
Salam and Hi......
As aspected yesterday buy and sell area met. Buy area fail to met my target at 1.5082 and stop at 1.5066. Then CS drop and met my sell area and met my target at 1.4866 and stop at 1.4838. Congratulations who got it.
At this moment (11.15 am) just read H4 chart. Already performed Bearish Continuation Candle and RSI is going down. Candle open below MA Red colour. Just drag the Fibonaci and use BB you will know where is the price may drop. Then use stochastic ossilator and you may see where CS is going to. Please reffer all Bullish signal that I've teached you before and please use all the relevan analysis given to you before for your refference. Until then good luck and be happy always.
Allah Hu.
GBP/USD
Speculation in the futures market that the pound will fall against the dollar increased in the last two weeks, with so- called net short positions rising to 34,462 on April 7 from 30,746 March 24, according to data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The pound will fall to $1.45 and to 91 pence versus the euro by the end of the second quarter, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys of at least 35 analysts.
Betting on pound gains is “definitely not a crowded trade,” said David Woo, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Barclays Plc, who predicts the currency will strengthen to 80 pence per euro this year. “If you look at the data from the CFTC, the market still doesn’t have the position on sterling.”
Technical analysts, who use historic trading patters to predict future prices, suggest the pound will continue to advance. The currency has been trading above its 100-day moving average against the euro since April 7, the first time it broke through that level since Nov. 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Breaking Levels
“Euro-sterling has rammed through all of the technical levels,” said David Powell, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. “Support was created by the 100-day moving average, but we’ve just gone right through there.”
Fibonacci charts show the pound may struggle to hold its gains unless it surpasses $1.5074. It almost reached that level three times since falling to a low of $1.3503 on Jan. 23.
Britain’s economy will shrink less than the U.S. and Europe this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 31. The U.K. will contract 3.7 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in the 16-nation euro-region and 4 percent in America, the Paris-based OECD said.
Brown’s government plans to sell at least 147.9 billion pounds ($195 billion) of debt in the fiscal year ending March 2010 to revive the economy, Europe’s second-largest. It sold an unprecedented 146.4 billion pounds of securities last year. The sales are helping finance a 25.6 billion-pound program of tax cuts and spending increases over the next two years. Brown has pledged 40 billion pounds to recapitalize banks and hundreds of billions of pounds in loan guarantees.
‘The Right Measures’
“On the financial sector, he’s put in place the right measures before any other country,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “Where he doesn’t rate highly is fiscal policy. The U.K. was in a very bad state when it entered the recession with a large deficit.”
Britain will have a deficit of 9.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the most in the Group of Seven, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Washington- based lender forecast shortfalls of 7.7 percent in the U.S., 8.1 percent in Japan and 4 percent in Germany, according to estimates last month.
“History will reveal 2009/2010 as the time to buy cheap,” Neil Jones, the head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London said in a note yesterday. “We will look back on this era and say, ‘I should have loaded up on property, companies and stocks.’”
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at
The pound will fall to $1.45 and to 91 pence versus the euro by the end of the second quarter, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg surveys of at least 35 analysts.
Betting on pound gains is “definitely not a crowded trade,” said David Woo, global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London at Barclays Plc, who predicts the currency will strengthen to 80 pence per euro this year. “If you look at the data from the CFTC, the market still doesn’t have the position on sterling.”
Technical analysts, who use historic trading patters to predict future prices, suggest the pound will continue to advance. The currency has been trading above its 100-day moving average against the euro since April 7, the first time it broke through that level since Nov. 3, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Breaking Levels
“Euro-sterling has rammed through all of the technical levels,” said David Powell, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. “Support was created by the 100-day moving average, but we’ve just gone right through there.”
Fibonacci charts show the pound may struggle to hold its gains unless it surpasses $1.5074. It almost reached that level three times since falling to a low of $1.3503 on Jan. 23.
Britain’s economy will shrink less than the U.S. and Europe this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 31. The U.K. will contract 3.7 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in the 16-nation euro-region and 4 percent in America, the Paris-based OECD said.
Brown’s government plans to sell at least 147.9 billion pounds ($195 billion) of debt in the fiscal year ending March 2010 to revive the economy, Europe’s second-largest. It sold an unprecedented 146.4 billion pounds of securities last year. The sales are helping finance a 25.6 billion-pound program of tax cuts and spending increases over the next two years. Brown has pledged 40 billion pounds to recapitalize banks and hundreds of billions of pounds in loan guarantees.
‘The Right Measures’
“On the financial sector, he’s put in place the right measures before any other country,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “Where he doesn’t rate highly is fiscal policy. The U.K. was in a very bad state when it entered the recession with a large deficit.”
Britain will have a deficit of 9.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the most in the Group of Seven, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Washington- based lender forecast shortfalls of 7.7 percent in the U.S., 8.1 percent in Japan and 4 percent in Germany, according to estimates last month.
“History will reveal 2009/2010 as the time to buy cheap,” Neil Jones, the head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London said in a note yesterday. “We will look back on this era and say, ‘I should have loaded up on property, companies and stocks.’”
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in London at
Thursday, April 16, 2009
GBP/USD @ 10.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4971 (First Target : 1.5082 Next : 1.5167)
SELL Area - 1.4931 (First Target : 1.4866)
Salam and Hi........
Today Trading range is between 1.4800 to 1.5300 area.
As aspected yesterday candle broke my second target at 1.5050. Congratulations who took this opportunity and I've heard one of you got more $4000.
Today please see the Daily and weekly chart. Looks like the candle may move further up. Please be alert on all Bullish signal like small and big flag, continuations bullish candle, inverted hammer. So do the Bearish signal like ,abandoned baby, dark cloud, pennant and etc.
Until then let learn something new today and be more discipline and the most important is set your target.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4931 (First Target : 1.4866)
Salam and Hi........
Today Trading range is between 1.4800 to 1.5300 area.
As aspected yesterday candle broke my second target at 1.5050. Congratulations who took this opportunity and I've heard one of you got more $4000.
Today please see the Daily and weekly chart. Looks like the candle may move further up. Please be alert on all Bullish signal like small and big flag, continuations bullish candle, inverted hammer. So do the Bearish signal like ,abandoned baby, dark cloud, pennant and etc.
Until then let learn something new today and be more discipline and the most important is set your target.
Allah Hu.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
GBP/USD @ 09.45 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area - 1.4911 (My target is 1.4957. Next 1.5050)
SELL Area - 1.4871 (My target is 1.4800. Next 1.4778)
Salam and hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.5000.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area - 1.4871 (My target is 1.4800. Next 1.4778)
Salam and hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.5000.
Allah Hu.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
GBP/USD @ 08.05 am (Malaysia)
BUY Area : 1.4775 (First target : 1.4870 Next : 1.4952)
SELL Area : 1.4755 (First target : 1.4650)
Salam and Hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.4945.
If break Resistance at 1.4957, candle may test 1.5100 area. If fail candle may drop back to 1.4775 area. Let see this happen.
Allah Hu.
SELL Area : 1.4755 (First target : 1.4650)
Salam and Hi..........
Trading Range is between 1.4600 to 1.4945.
If break Resistance at 1.4957, candle may test 1.5100 area. If fail candle may drop back to 1.4775 area. Let see this happen.
Allah Hu.
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Salam and hi fxworld, Trading Range is between 1.6187 to 1.6750 1. BUY Area : 1.6541 a. T1: 1.6600 b. T2: 1.6661 c. T3: 1.6750 ...
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Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. ... -
Salam and hi.... Trading Range is between 1.6100 to 1.6662 1. BUY Area : 1.6349 (TP1: 1.6479 TP2: 1.6515 TP3: 1.6629) If fail CS may d...