GOLD !!! GOLD !!! GOLD ????

Bob Prechter on Silver & Gold

In case you hadn’t noticed: Over the past year of financial turmoil, the “safe haven” premium of precious metals has offered about as much support as a rubber ducky in a tsunami. Despite a string of powerful rallies, silver and gold remain well below their March 2008 peaks.


It goes without saying that the greatest opportunities in precious metals were not had by those who played the “disaster hedge” card; but rather by those who timed the trends as they developed, regardless of the fundamental backdrop.

Bob Prechter is in the latter group. Amidst the buzz and whirl of the most bullish backdrop in precious metals’ recent history, gold and silver prices soared to new, all-time highs and calls for a “New Gold Rush” and “$30 Silver” flooded the mainstream airwaves. Yet Bob alerted subscribers to an approaching top in the March 14, 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist.

“The wave count [in silver] is nearly satisfied, though ideally it should end after one more new high. If this analysis is accurate, and silver does peak and begin a bear market, gold is likely to go down with it.”

In the days that followed, prices in both metals fell off a cliff. In turn, Bob was asked to address his exceptional call for a turn down in a March 19, 2008 Bloomberg interview. Here are of excerpts from that conversation:

Bloomberg: “Why did you put out that call on Friday (March 14) about a peak in precious metals?”

Editor’s Note: You can download Bob Prechter’s 5-page report, Gold & Recessions, free from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.

Bob Prechter: “One of the reasons is that it seemed like an absolutely sure thing. We track several indicators of sentiment. One of them is the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI). That reached 98% bulls on a one-day basis going into this last high. We were tracking silver as well… as it is clearest in our minds. Now, at the time, we needed one more slightly new high. That happened Monday morning and silver dropped 15% in 48 hours. That’s a heck of a reversal and I think it’s real.”

“Real” indeed: From their March peaks, gold prices plummeted 34%, alongside a 60% sell-off in silver before hitting the breaks in October. Here, the October 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast prepared for a corrective rebound and wrote:

“Silver traced out a five-wave decline from its March peak…Gold should also rally as silver pushes higher. Once silver’s rise is exhausted (initial target: $15.15), the larger downtrend should resume for both metals.”

A powerful, four-month bounce ensued in both metals: Gold prices came within kissing distance of its March peak before turning down on February 20; silver followed suit — a fulfillment of this bearish, near-term insight presented in the February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:

“Silver has been clear as a bell. Silver is due to turn back down, and gold, which is back at $1000/oz, is likely to follow.”

Since then, it’s been a steady march lower for both metals. Obviously, EWI’s forecasts do not always prove this accurate. Yet in this case the analysis speaks for itself.

For more metals analysis from Bob Prechter, download Gold & Recessions a free 5-page report from Elliott Wave International. It features 63 years of historical analysis that reveals how gold, T-notes, and the DJIA have performed in recessions and expansions.

Undi Anda Adalah Untuk Kerajaan Rakyat !!!

UNDI KEADILAN BERMAKNA MEMBINA KEADILAN UNTUK SEMUA RAKYAT MALAYSIA.

JANGAN TERTIPU DENGAN PEMBOHONGAN BN

KITA BINA KERAJAAN RAKYAT YANG BERJUANG UNTUK SEMUA RAKYAT MALAYSIA

ALLAH HU

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

Trading Range Is Between 1.4580 to 1.4779

BUY Area - 1.4655 (First Target : 1.4779. Next : 1.4839)

If break 1.4779 candle may test 1.5000 area. It depend if Initial support hold at 1.4580 area. InsyaAllah.

Sell Area - 1.4617 (First Target : 1.4580)

If break 1.4580 candle may drop furthur at 1.4443)

Allah HU

From Market Oracle For You, please read:

Funding the Fund with Gold.

The G20 announcement of tripling IMF resources to $750 billion offered an extra boost for equity markets and higher yielding currencies at the expense of further damage in the dollar and the yen. The G20 confirmed our predictions that central banks will incorporate gold sales to finance assistance for lower income nations. Central banks gold selling would also help stabilize any renewed selling in the greenback and prevent any unwanted appreciation in other currencies.

With US jobless claims at fresh 27-year high of 669K and continuing claims at a record 5.73 million, it is a reminder that macroeconomic deterioration in the US is far from having reached its trough. Even if Friday's March jobs report from the US shows further stabilization on the payrolls front (as did the last 3 reports), the US unemployment rate is likely to exceed 8.1%, thereby, surpassing that of the Eurozone and Germany , a development that could not be imagined just a few months ago by the classic critics of the Eurozone model. And with US consumer credit delinquencies in Q4 surging to an all time high, the deleveraging process within US households relative to that of the Eurozone is another dynamic supporting medium term stabilization in the single currency.

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)

Trading Range Is Between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

BUY Area - 1.4423 (My Target is 1.4482. Next : 1.4534 Next : 1.4614).

SELL Area - 1.4385 (My Target is 1.1.4323. Next : 1.4271).

Salam and Hi,

Yesterday my buy area met at 1.4327 and met my target at 1.4450 and stop at 1.4482. Congratulations who got it and I hope you got your target. As I've told before - please set your target and be more discipline. Don't forget the basic before you enter the positions.

Trading Range Is Between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Please be alert on all reversal signal at H4 like Bearish and Bullish Reversal Signal including Doji, morning star, bearish/bullish continuations candle or Abandoned Baby and Harami. Be happy today and please set your target.

Allah Hu.

Keep On Eye Out For Recovery On GBP/USD

GBP/USD Today @ 07.27 am (Malaysia):

BUY Area - 1.4327 (My target is 1.4385 Second Target : 1.4450 Third Target : 1.4550)

SELL Area - 1.4283 ( My target is 1.4248. Next : 1.4175 Next 1.4050)

Salam and Hi........

Yesterday my buy area at 1.4243 met and met my target at 1.4336 and stop at 1.4376. Congratulations to those who got it at least 60 pips or more.

Today trading range is still between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Below is some Tips from Kathy Lien site for your reading that I've copy and paste it here. Maybe this statement may help your trading today.

Until then let see together what will happen on GBP/USD today.

Allah Hu.



Keep an Eye Out for a Recovery :

Although the UK economy still faces many risks in 2009, there is hope. Consumer spending has been pretty resilient with November retail sales rising for the first time in 3 months. If the global economy begins to recover, we expect the UK economy to outperform its peers thanks to the Bank of England’s proactiveness. The currency has sold off significantly, providing additional stimulus for the battered economy. Even if there is no full-blown recovery, the UK economy is much further long in their slowdown than the Eurozone. Therefore if we see sharply weaker growth in the Eurozone economy in 2009, expectations for more aggressive ECB interest rate cuts may be all that the British pound needs to recover against the Euro. As for the US dollar, the recovery could come sooner if the quantitative easing forces the greenback lower. When the UK economy begins to recover, so will its currency.

Technical Outlook for the GBP/USD

The British pound experienced a drastic sell-off throughout the year, tumbling to a level not seen since 2002. The pair lost roughly 5,000 pips as the BOE reduced the interest rates far more aggressively than other central banks. Currently, the pair is well below the 200-week and 50-week Simple Moving Average, reflecting in the change of the trend from an upward to a downward bias. Nevertheless, the pair seems to be oversold for the time being, needing a major retracement if it will continue to depreciate further.

The pair still remains in the sell zone that is established using the Bollinger Bands, and until the price closes above the first standard deviation, it could experience a further downtrend. Although the pair is destined to retrace at some point this year, the price still remains within reach of breaking further, establishing a prolonged downward trend. Near term resistance is at 1.5723, the December high. The currency pair could hold above 1.45, but if it breaks that level, the next meaningful support is not until 1.40, which served as support from 2000 to 2001.

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4243 (My Target : 1.4302. Next : 1.4336 Next : 1.4411)

SELL Area - 1.4203 (My Target " 1.4146. Next Target : 1.4034)

Salam and Hi.........

Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Allah Hu

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)

SELL Area - 1.4339 (First Target : 1.4250 Next : 1.4200 Next : 1.4126)

BUY Area - 1.4377 (First Target : 1.4493)

Salam and Hi.........

Trading Range is between 1.4100 to 1.4779.

Allah Hu