TIPs From Uncommon Wisdom

Dollar Begins Decline
by Larry Edelson on March 19, 2009

The much anticipated decline of the US dollar appears to have started with yesterday’s announcement that the Federal Reserve will start buying up to $300 billion of Treasuries and mortgage bonds. The action is expected to expand the central bank’s balance sheet by $1.15 trillion. The excess supply of dollars is threatening investors with fears of an inflationary spiral. The Dollar Index reflected this as it fell 2.7%, the largest one day drop since 1971.

The dollar started on a declining trend in 2005 amid concerns for the United States’ expanding current account deficit. However, this trend was largely reversed last year as investors flocked to risk free U.S. Treasury Bills amid panic in global financial markets, raising demand. Analysts also agree much of the demand for the dollar was made up of investors unwinding their positions, and was not actual sustainable demand.

My Opinion: These actions emphasize the severity of the economic crisis in the U.S. While the recession has taken its toll on most economies, central banks have largely avoided printing money at the pace the Fed has. Eventual devaluation isn’t a hypothesis but rather a proven fact — printing money leads to inflation, which erodes the value of the currency in question. One needn’t look further than Zimbabwe to see this in action.

As more money is printed, there is more currency chasing the same amount of goods. Production isn’t increasing in the United States and all this excess capital will be representative of the same volume of production. If for example there was $100 in an economy which produced 10 equal products, each product would be valued at $10. If the central bank printed an extra $50 and let it circulate without any matching increase in production, $150 would be representative of the same 10 products, thus pricing them at $15 each, resulting in 50% inflation.

As inflationary pressure mounts, I expect more investors to dump dollars in favor of assets that offer a better inflationary hedge, like gold.

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.37 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.4427 ( First target - 1.4606).

SELL Area - 1.4395 ( First target - 1.4234. Next - 1.4155)

Trading Range is between 1.3841 to 1.4606.

Salam. Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 04.30 am (Malaysia)

Salam and Hi....

Huhuhu yesterday both my sell and buy area met the target. Please reffer back yesterday predictions. I've heard some of them got more 500 pips up and down. Candle at M30 Chart at 04.30 am (Malaysia) already performed Abandoned baby - might give another at least 60 pips. Let see this happen pal. I want to sleep now after Morning Prayer and let's wait my next predictions after 12.00 noon today. Have to get some rest after chating long hour with Mr. Ziga from Slovenia. Until then good morning to all my frenssssssssssss. Allah Hu.

09.30 am (malaysia):

Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4606. Look like the drop from 1.4985 already accomplised and maybe candle already found the initial support to test the initial resistance at 1.4985 - I hope so and let us see this happen or not:

BUY Area - 1.4173 (My target is 1.4350. Next is 1.4481. Possiblelly will test 1.4606 area)

SELL Area - 1.4133 (My target is 1.3932. Next 1.3841 area)

Allah Hu.

ps : have to continued my sleeping time - I hope so if no hp call. Salam.

GBP/USD Pair @ 01.00 pm (Malaysia)

Salam and Hi,

Sorry for my late predictions. Today let see the Daily chart and I already found a doji like a dragon fly. That is a very good reverse signal. Furthur more new candle open below middle of BB - that mean at this moment candle may drop down and it mean High To Sell. Please refer all the discipline before you enter your positions.

My sell target today is 1.3926 and possiblely may drop to 1.3850. If break this level candle may drop to 1.3654. Please set your target at least 60 pips today. If you want more please use Trailing Stop to protect your profit. People who set target will gain profit and it is confirm. 60 pips a day x 10 day x $10 = $6000 and it is confirm solid profit. Think about this and dont wait hundred of pips - you will regret later.

Trading range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231. Break 1.4231 candle may test 1.4305. Let see this happen.

ALLAH HU.

GBP/USD Pair @ 11.00 am (Malaysia)

Trading Range is between 1.3654 to 1.4231.

1. BUY Area 1.4101 (MY target is 1.4231. Next is 1.4303. Possiblely may go further up to 1.4600 area).

2. SELL Area 1.4061 (my target is 1.3934. Next is 1.3705).

Allah Hu.

GBP/USD Pair @ 09.50 am (Malaysia)

BUY Area - 1.3991 (Mt Target is 1.4090. Next 1.4151)

SELL Area - 1.3947 (Mr Target is 1.3870. Next 1.3763).

Happy Week End To All My Frens - no predictions today !!!

I rest at home at this moment and maybe tomorrow will be at Bagan Lalang with Dr. Harveen.

Tip From Market Oracle:

GBP rallied to hold the 1.3800 handle after scoring highs at 1.3841 suggesting that the low-volume dip to the 1.3550 area overnight was a bear-trap. Further upside is likely if the rate can score the 1.3900 handle mid-week as the rate is overdue for a short-squeeze in my view.

Rate two-way and recovers after a marginal new low into support overnight. 23 year lows in sight but the rate is attracting bids. Reversal off weekly lows a positive technical but the volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group. Likely an upside rally is still in the works but the rate needs to rebound hard to wash-out the shorts again. After yesterday’s action I think both sides will take a break. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Long-term tech resistance now at 1.5000 area likely to cap near term but stops are building above and the 1.5000 handle is a big psychological number. 23 year lows are very likely to hold on any break with long-term support at 1.3500 area now in play. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Short squeeze back on the board I think.