Monday, October 17, 2011

From Mario Singh

Risk currencies are having a brief rally this week due to three reasons:
1) United States employment situation beat expectations
2) Bank of England increased its asset-purchases ceiling
3) European leaders pledged to recapitalise banks

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 103,000 last month with private sector payrolls rising by 137,000. This was higher than the 50,000 estimate by industry experts. Additionally, the August NFP report was also revised up from zero to 57,000.

At the start of the week, EUR/USD edged up nearly 100 pips to reflect the cheer of the jobs report..

In a surprise move last week, the Bank of England raised the ceiling for its asset purchases to 275 billion (S$553 billion) pounds from 200 billion pounds. Tantamount to a quantitative easing, the move was the first loosening of British monetary policy since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

After plunging 200 pips at the announcement, the GBP/USD has surprisingly rallied; climbing over 375 pips since the start of the week.

European leaders met in Luxembourg last week to hammer out concrete plans to stave off a European financial crisis.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European leaders will do "everything necessary" to ensure that banks have adequate capital, joining French President Nicolas Sarkozy in persuading investors that the situation is under control.

The heads of Europe's two biggest economies reiterated their intention to keep Greece in the euro zone, and Mr Sarkozy set a deadline of Nov 3 - the date of the Group 20 summit - to address the crisis in Greece.

Despite the apparent good news that has buoyed markets, I expect the optimism to be short-lived. The worse is not over.

This is because QE3 is still on the cards as fas as the Federal Reserve is concerned.

With US unemployment hovering at 9 per cent for over two years and growth slowing down, the Fed is running out of options to stimulate growth and consumption.

Additionally, French-Belgian Bank Dexia has already become the first victim of the debt crisis in Europe. The purging has only just begun.




Sunday, October 16, 2011

US$ What Next Will Happen.

The US Dollar posted big declines on the biggest S&P 500 rally in over two years, sparked by a large shift towards risky assets and away from safe-haven currencies. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index likewise posted its worst single-week decline since it set a major top in early 2009. Short-term momentum clearly favors further US Dollar weakness, but its record correlation to the Dow Jones Industrial Average emphasizes that direction could change on a moment’s notice.
A relatively quiet week of US event risk and a fairly sizeable drop in forex market volatility expectations points to a quiet week ahead. Markets will pay close attention to any developments on a highly-anticipated meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers over the weekend. Yet it seems improbable that the G20 produces genuine resolution of ongoing Euro Zone crises, and the Greenback seems unlikely to respond to any half-measures.
A scheduled speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Consumer Price Index inflation data could otherwise elicit reactions from Fed watchers and the US Dollar. Ultimately however, increasingly complacent financial markets could continue pushing the safe-haven USD lower across the board absent any major surprises.
We had previously warned that the US Dollar could see a large correction lower against the euro and other currencies, but we are beginning to wonder whether this is truly a correction and not the start of a broader dollar downtrend. The Euro/US Dollar fell over 1400 pips from late August into early October. It now trades nearly 750 pips off of those lows and has the psychologically significant $1.40 squarely in sight. Perhaps most impressively, the highly-correlated Dow Jones Industrial Average now trades slightly higher on a year-to-date basis despite fierce declines into early-month lows.
Some fundamental analysts argue that the Dow has rallied sharply on a real improvement in growth prospects for the US economy; we beg to differ. A stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report seemingly sparked the return to risk-taking across major markets. Yet the DJIA had seen massive declines into the first week of October, and the ensuing rally seems like a natural short-covering-driven correction. Indeed, stock market strength has come on exceedingly low trading volume; the S&P 500 posted a whopping 1.74% single-day gain on the lowest volume since mid-summer.
The implications for the US Dollar are relatively clear: we believe that the Greenback may continue to see short-term weakness, but a resumption of the broader equity market downtrend would likely push the USD higher into year’s end. In the coming week this means that the EURUSD could very well test the 1.4000 mark and the AUDUSD could hit fresh highs. Yet market conditions could change at a moment’s notice, and the recent wave of complacency is cause for concern.
The closely-watched S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) posted a record single-week decline on the dramatic stock market rallies. Such dramatic moves emphasizes that many had previously been betting on VIX gains (and S&P 500 weakness). Once positioning is fully unwound, however, bears may once again come out in force and the safe-haven US Dollar could rally sharply. - DR
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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)

Salam ...

Bismillah HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM


Trading Range is between 1.5200 to 1.5600 area.



1. BUY Area : 1.5425



T1 : 1.5488


T2 : 1.5555


T3 : 1.5625



2. SELL Area : 1.5400



T1 : 1.5355


T2 : 1.5280


T3 : 1.5200


ALLAH HU






Monday, September 26, 2011

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)

Salam ...

Bismillah HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM


Trading Range is between 1.5200 to 1.5800 area.



1. BUY Area : 1.5425


T1 : 1.5480


T2 : 1.5555


T3 : 1.5677



2. SELL Area : 1.5400


T1 : 1.5350


T2 : 1.5280


T3 : 1.5188


ALLAH HU.



Thursday, September 15, 2011

GBP/USD @ 09.00 am (Malaysia)

Salam ...

Bismillah HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM


Trading Range is between 1.5600 to 1.6000 area.



1. BUY Area : 1.5761


T1 : 1.5788


T2 : 1.5825


T3 : 1.5900



2. SELL Area : 1.5741



T1 : 1.5700


T2 : 1.5600


ALLAH HU.






Wednesday, September 7, 2011

GBP/USD Pair @ 07.00 am (Malaysia)

Salam ...

Bismillah HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM


Trading Range is between 1.5800 to 1.6200 area.



1. SELL Area : 1.6023


T1 : 1.5980


T2 : 1.5950


T3 : 1.5880



2. BUY Area : 1.6043


T1 : 1.6088


T2 : 1.6125


T3 : 1.6200


ALLAH HU.




Monday, August 29, 2011

GBP/USD Pair @ 06.00 am (Malaysia)

Salam ...

Bismillah HIRR RAHHMAN NIRR RAHHIM


SELAMAT HARI RAYA MAAF ZAHIR DAN BATIN - HALALKAN YANG TERAMBIL.


Trading Range is between 1.6000 to 1.6500 area.


1. BUY Area : 1.6317


T1 : 1.6380


T2 : 1.6450


T3 : 1.6500



2. SELL Area : 1.6280


T1 : 1,6227


T2 : 1.6100


T3 : 1.6055


ALLAH HU.




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